Triple Crown Affair: An In depth look at Miguel Cabrera's 2012 Achievement vs. Past Winners

"Baseball endures at least in part because it is a contemplative sport that delights in nuances. Not a brazen game, eager to sell its thrills cheaply, but rather an understated affair that must be courted if it's to be loved." ~ Kenneth Turan

I am 39 years old. Scratch that. A couple of days ago I turned 39 and a half. I haven't measured my own age in half-years since I was collecting baseball cards. I don't like change. I resist it with everything I can muster. I ought to start accepting that my hair is thinning, that my body needs a couple of days to recover from playing a doubleheader and that records are meant to be broken.

Youngsters wander with wide eyes. I was no different. I fell in love with baseball early on. I soaked in the history, the names, the records. I studied my baseball cards. I was four (and a half) and it must have been way past my bed time, but I have convinced myself that I saw Reggie Jackson's three home runs on three straight pitches in Game 6 of the 1977 World Series. Like many young boys, I was engulfed in an infatuation. I was caught up in a love affair and baseball used two hands to ensure I remained in its grips.

Like I said, I am 39 and a half years old. In my lifetime, man has never walked on the moon, no ball player has ever hit .400 and nobody has ever won baseball's Triple Crown. Names like Neil Armstrong, Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle have become biblical. They are legends. Their stories have taken on mythical proportions. Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak might as well have taken place in the 15^th century.  His exploits are content for the history books like Columbus discovering America.

I have had trouble adjusting to baseball's records falling. I was wrapped up with McGwire and Sosa's pursuit of 61. I am sickened at how I was deceived. Names like Ruth, Maris and Aaron should have perpetual significance in the annals. I eventually accepted Ripken surpassing Gehrig. I could barely watch as the Red Sox vanquished their ghosts. I get wrapped up in all these perfect games, but still ache with their frequency.

However, last year, something (dare I say) changed in me even though I will be hard pressed to admit such a thing. It was Game 3 of the 2011 World Series. Albert Pujols hit a home run. In his next at bat he hit another. I thought of Reggie immediately. The goose bumps set in. I was four and a half years old again. I was six. I was ten. He came to the plate and hit one more to seal his place in history. I cheered. I was not devastated. I had just traveled back in time to spend one more night with my lost love.

Mythical Proportions

The words "triple crown" are mythical to any sports fan. They are regal. For baseball hitters, they are chosen for the few who lead their respective league in batting average, home runs and runs batted in (RBIs).

Baseball sabermatricians challenge us to accept a new world of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and they are right to preach a new frontier. However, baseball fans don't always want logic and reason. Baseball fans yearn for that contemplative sport that delights in nuances. And few words harken such feelings more than "triple crown".

Baseball's batting Triple Crown is elusive. Entering this season, its 11 conquerors since the turn of the 20^th century (see below) are a who's who in Cooperstown. Cobb, Hornsby, Gehrig, Williams, Mantle are Greek Gods. Before this year, the achievement was last won in 1967 by Boston's steady all-star left fielder, Carl Yastrzemski. Only one year removed from Baltimore's Frank Robinson leading in all three categories. Fans in the late 60's could have never imagined that it would be 45 years later before another ball player joined the Triple Crown club.

The Goose Bumps Set In

Last season, word had begun spreading by late summer that Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers was accumulating one of the best all-around seasons in baseball's recent memory. He was near the top of the National League in almost every significant offensive statistical category. He was getting on base, using his speed, hitting the long ball, and driving in runs. He was closing in on being the first batting Triple Crown winner in the National League in 74 years and the first in either league in 44 years.

I was caught up in it all. I hadn't fully appreciated Kemp's five tool ability. I needed to see for myself. I shouldn't have needed Kemp's all-world season as a reason to tune into a random Thursday night Dodger game against their rivals, the San Francisco Giants.  Vin Scully's call of the game is reason enough. His voice is to your ears like the smell of the gum from a pack of cards is to your nose. His voice is a time machine.

Kemp trailed in the race for the batting average crown by game time. He showed no nerves. He stroked the ball with incredible ease that night. All the clichés fit. The pitches were the size of beach balls. The game was slowing down for him until his swing was in harmony with Scully's idyllic press box prose. Kemp went 4 for 5. Three doubles. One home run for good measure. 10 total bases. Kemp hit .343 that September. He hit safely in each of his remaining six games after the Thursday night Giants game. However, he fell short of the batting title to Jose Reyes of the Mets and I began wondering how short had he come to the mythical Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown Factor

The Triple Crown Factor is defined as the number of plate appearances a hitter would need to generate the hits, home runs and/or RBIs he would need to fill the gap between him and the league leaders in each category.

I reviewed baseball's history books since 1968; the season following Yastrzemski's Triple Crown. I identified any player who finished the year in the top 10 of each Triple Crown statistical category. The next step was to determine how many hits, homers and RBIs each player fell short. Using this data, I was able to determine just how close Kemp came and to see where he ranked among all the players who have tried to follow in Yastrzemski's footsteps. The table below ranks the 20 individual seasons that were the closest to the Triple Crown from 1968 to 2011.

¹Please see the Notes section for my technical breakdown of how the Triple Crown Factor was determined.

My analysis shows that Kemp's 2011 campaign was the closest to reaching to the Triple Crown since Dick Allen 40 years ago.

This list produced a wide range of big league ballplayers: Everyone from perennial all-stars (Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds) to those who only had a few seasons in the spotlight (George Foster, Albert Belle, Dante Bichette). For all the players I identified in the top 10 of each Triple Crown statistical category, no one showed up more than Pujols; last year's Game 3 hero. He finished in the top 10 of each Triple Crown statistical category eight out of nine straight seasons (2002-2006 and 2008-2010). The next closest is Frank Thomas with six seasons. Three hitters were identified five times: Barry Bonds (twice in his prior life and three times resurrected), Vladimir Guerrero, and Miguel Cabrera, a 29 year old Venezuelan superstar who burst on the scene in 2003 to help the Florida Marlins win the World Series.

I Remained It Its Grips

Fresh off Kemp's season for the ages, I wasn't prepared to revisit a Triple Crown chase in consecutive seasons. I suppose I could have expected Pujols to contend. Kemp was showing no indications that he'd slow due to injury. Based on the data, I should have considered Cabrera, but he slowly goes about his business. He has actually been gradually building a hall of fame career and he hasn't even hit the age of 30. To be accurate, he'll be 29 and a half as the 2012 playoffs start hitting their full swing.

In 2011, Kemp had pretty much sewn up the home run and RBI crowns. Cabrera was closer to fully securing titles in all three categories in 2012, but he remained deep in the batting and home run races until the last day of the season. I had not only been checking one box score a night; I seemed to have been checking them all. Did Granderson homer today? How many hits did Mauer get? What about Trout? I was compulsive. I was infatuated.

When the final out was made and the dust settled, Cabrera outmatched his peers and won the Triple Crown. He climbed onto a pedestal vacated since before the Beatles broke up; since before man walked on the moon. He clearly claimed the RBI title, he surpassed Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers in home runs and he outlasted Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels by four points in the batting race.
 

2012 AMERICAN LEAGUE BATTING AVERAGE LEADERS

2012 AMERICAN LEAGUE HOME RUN LEADERS

2012 AMERICAN LEAGUE RBI LEADERS

Baseball was my first love. And you can never fall in love for the first time twice. However, every year baseball offers something new that ignites those feelings inside of you.

I may never admit to accepting change, but I have learned that change is an opportunity to experience something for the first time. Like your first kiss, like your first game winning hit, or the first time experiencing someone hitting for the Triple Crown. This achievement is for the history books and for the back of baseball cards. The importance in my mind is how fans like me can get wrapped up in the moment as we create a memory that no one can change.

Bob Sullivan writes periodically for SportingCharts.com and can be followed on Twitter at @mrbobsullivan.

NOTES:

The following is my technical breakdown of how the Triple Crown Factor (TCF) was determined:

TCF is defined as the number of plate appearances a hitter would need to generate the hits, home runs and/or RBIs he would need to fill the gap between him and the league leaders in each category.

My analysis was completed over each Major League Baseball season between 1968 and 2011. In order to determine TCF, I collected data on the league leading batting averages (BAs), home runs (HRs) and RBIs. I identified any player who finished in the top 10 of each Triple Crown statistical category during a season and determined their plate appearances (PAs), at bats (ABs), hits, HRs and RBIs.

Using this data, I was able to determine how many hits (converted from the player's BA using ABs), HRs and RBIs each player fell short of the league leader during that season. Additional adjustments were made to the results since the statistics are not mutually exclusive (e.g., a HR generates a hit, a HR and at least one RBI at the same time). In order to accomplish this, I assumed that 0.57 base runners are on base for each HR. This assumption was determined by analyzing the data on the top 20 HR hitters from each league during 2012.

Once the hits, HRs and RBIs each player fell short were adjusted, I converted the results back into PAs using each player's individual statistics for that season. TCF is then determined by taking the maximum of the PAs needed to generate the required hits, HRs and RBIs.