There is little question that the fastest growing area in the sports industry right now is the the daily fantasy space, which allows users to enter daily contests by building a fantasy lineup of players under a salary cap with the winners of the contest being the users with the lineups that score the most fantasy points that day.
The great thing is that no longer is your fantasy season destroyed by an injury or suspension of your star player - for there is a brand new day or week ahead to start a fresh. Our mission at SportingCharts is to improve the analytics of sports by providing tools, resources, and unique visuals to better arm fans, fantasy players, and bettors in their decision making.
Today, we are proud to announce the launch of a new tool on the site aimed at the daily fantasy player with our: NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker.
The NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker is a tool that details the historical performance of each NBA player from a value perspective including a detailed visual look at their past per game value performance, details on how often they hit value levels, a risk assessment of their value, and more.
Before we jump into the details of the tool and how to use it, here is a quick overview of what value means in the world of daily fantasy.
What is value in Daily Fantasy Sports?
Value is a statistic in daily fantasy that measures how many fantasy points a player produces on a cost basis to give an indication of how productive a player is in comparison to the amount spent on that player.
To calculate value, you simply take the fantasy points the player generated and divide it by the cost of the player (per thousand $). For example, if LeBron James put up 55.4 fantasy points and cost $10,500, he'd have a value of 5.28x.
LeBron James Value = 55.4 / ($10,500/$1000) = 5.28
This means that for every $1,000 you spend on LeBron James, he returned to you 5.28 fantasy points on the evening.
The benefit of the value statistic is that it allows you to better compare one player to another as it incorporates fantasy production and the cost of that production. If your salary cap consists of $60,000 total (as it is in FanDuel), and every player in your lineup hit 5X...you would have 300 FanDuel points for the day (generally a very good score).
NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker
Enter our newest tool on the site, the NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker which does all of the heavy lifting for you when it comes to calculating a players value so that you can quickly assess each player and make better informed daily fantasy decisions.
Lets jump into how to use the tool:
Player Value Dashboard
The first section of the tool is the dashboard, which details the player page you are on and his high-level value statistics:
- Average 2014-15 Value - this details the overall average value that the player has hit over the season, which gives an indication as to what you can expect on an average night.
- Max Value - this details the highest individual game value level the player has reached during the season, which gives an indication as to the ceiling value of the player.
- Min Value - this details the lowest individual game value level the player has reached during the season, which gives an indication as to the floor value of the player.
- FanDuel PPG - this details the average FanDuel points the player generates on a per game basis.
- Average Salary - this details the average salary cost of the player over the season.
Player Value Chart
The player value chart visually captures the value, performance, and salary of a player over the season. It helps to give a clearer picture of how he player has performed in the key metrics for daily fantasy players.
The chart details each game of the season in three important ways:
- Value hit, which is represented by the blue column and the scale on the left axis, details the value LeBron reached for each game of the season. This gives an indication as to how his value has trended over the season.
- FanDuel production, which is represented by the green line and the first scale on the right axis, details the FanDuel fantasy point production of LeBron James on a per game basis. This gives you an indication as to how his fantasy performance has trended over the season.
- Salary, which is represented by the red line and the second scale on the right axis, details LeBron James' FanDuel salary for each game. This gives you an indication as to how his salary has trended over the season.
Note: If you see a date with no value column it means that he missed the game.
Tip: to exclude one of the above three statistics from the chart simply click Value/Salary/FD Points on the legend at the bottom of the chart.
Value Breakdown and Risk Assessment
The next big section of the tool is the value breakdown and risk assessment section which answers a few questions about a players value including how often they hit certain levels of value and how much variance there is in their game-to-game value.
How Often Does LeBron James Reach Each Value Level?
There first component in this section details how often (shown as a percentage) the player reaches each subsequent level of value starting from 2x up to 6x. For LeBron James, during the 2014-15 NBA season he has hit the 2x level 100% of his games, hit 3x in 83.78% of his games, hit 4x in 62.16% of his games, 5x in 21.62% of his games, and hasn't hit 6x in any games. This helps to give an indication of what we can expect in most games from LeBron James.
The second component (pie chart) further breaks out his value into the percentages of games that fall in each level. As illustrated in the above, we can see that in 21.62% of games, LeBron James' value has fallen between 5-5.9x. This gives us some further clarity into how his value has ranged over the season.
Value Consistency and Range
The third component attempts to give an assessment of the risk associated with LeBron James' value, which helps to give us a better indication as to how consistent his value is from a game-to-game basis.
To do this we took a look at his variance over the season to project a value floor and ceiling around his average, which gives us a range of expectations for the evening. The variance is deducted from the average to give us a range that we can expect the vast majority of his games to fall between (86.7% of the time).
For example, if his salary is $10,000 on the evening, from a value perspective, we can expect a production range with a floor of 28.1 points, an average of 42.3 points, and a max ceiling of 56.5 points on the night.
Additionally, we compared this variance (standardized) to the other players across the same position to give a relative risk assessment, which is broken out into three categories: Low, Moderate, and High. Players with low risk have a relatively lower variance from game to game and therefore a tighter value range vs. players with high risk who have a relatively higher variance from game to game and therefore a much wider value range.
Game Log and Similar Positional Players
The last section of the tool is comprised of two parts: 1) a game log, which simply breaks down each game into the opponent faced, minutes played, FanDuel points, Salary, and Value. 2) Similar positional players table, which details other players of the same position (in the case of LeBron, PFs) and breaks down each players games played, average salary, FanDuel points per game, and average 2014-15 value.
More to come...
This is the first iteration of the tool and we hope that it brings you a lot of value in your quest for big daily fantasy wins. We have a few more updates to come with the tool so make sure to check back frequently.
We built this tool to help the community and leverage the vast amount of statistics and data we have at our disposal. We would love for you to share it around with your friends and provide us with feedback - if you'd like to tell us where we can improve the tool or what we need to add, feel free to email us at [email protected]
Best of luck in your NBA daily fantasy lineups!
Cory, Mike, and Chad