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2015 MLB Home Run Derby Analysis


The 30th edition of the Home Run Derby goes tonight in Cincinnati, Ohio at the Great American Ball Park with a total of eight of the best home run hitters in the MLB facing off. Here is a look at everything you need to know for tonight's contest:

The eight contestants are, in order of seeding (Vegas odds in brackets):

  1. Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels (9/2)
  2. Todd Frazier of the host Cincinnati Reds (19/4)
  3. Josh Donaldson of the Toronto Blue Jays (11/2)
  4. Joc Pederson of the Los Angeles Dodgers (19/4)
  5. Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles (11/1)
  6. Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs (7/1)
  7. Prince Fielder of the Texas Rangers (19/4)
  8. Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs (11/2)

There is a new format this season that will see a tournament format (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, etc.):

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The winner of the last two derby's, Yoenis Cespedes, failed to make the all-star game as he didn't garner enough votes so there will be a new champion this season.

The Ballpark

The Great American Ball Park could live up to its name for tonight's home run derby as it is one of the best parks for home run hitters. So far in 2015, there have been an average of 2.52 home runs per game this season, which ranks the Great American Park as the 2nd most in the NL and tied for 3rd among all parks in the MLB. So it could be one big night of home runs.

Here is a look at the spray chart of home runs at Great American Ball Park in 2015:

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Now let's take a look at each of the contestants 2015 home run charts with the Great American Ball Park overlaid (source: ESPN Home Run Tracker):

Albert Pujols

In 2015, Albert Pujols has hit a total of 26 home runs on the season with an average true distance of 399.6.

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Todd Frazier

Todd Frazier has hit a total of 25 home runs on the season with an average true distance of 398.4.

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Josh Donaldson

Josh Donaldson has hit a total of 21 home runs with an average true distance of 408.1.

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Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson has hit a total of 20 home runs with an average true distance of 430.5.

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Manny Machado

Manny Machado has hit a total of 19 home runs with an average true distance of 387.3.

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Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has hit a total of 16 home runs with an average true distance of 402.1.

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Prince Fielder

Prince Fielder has hit a total of 14 home runs with an average true distance of 413.0.

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Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant has hit a total of 12 home runs with an average true distance of 406.9.

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My Pick

My money is on Joc Pederson who leads the MLB in average true distance with 430.5 and has a solid home run number on the season at 20 and is giving solid odds at 19/4. But watch out for Albert Pujols in the left field bleachers as he has a great spray chart for this park.

What time does it start? The 2015 MLB Home Run Derby is set to start at 8 PM ET. 



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