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NBA Daily Fantasy Projections and Value Plays - February 22, 2015


Before we jump into the projections and value plays for today, I just wanted to point out two new tools we recently added to the site.

The first is the NBA Daily Value Tracker which gives a complete breakdown of each NBA player from value perspective - for those who don't know, value is a measure of the relationship between the fantasy production of the player and their fantasy cost.

The second tools is the Defense vs. Position Report which details the daily fantasy production of each position against a team's defense - for example, this will allow you to get an understanding of how Centers do against the Miami Heat (14th best defense).

With that out of the way, here is a look, based on our internal projections, of how players in today's games are set to perform tonight and where you can find some value. Check out the optimal lineup at the end of the article - yesterday's lineup put up 249.7 points.

Note: make sure to keep an eye on injury and lineup reports! Also FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 tournament where the winner takes home $20,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel!

Centers

Here is a look at our projections for FanDuel Centers tonight including their Ceiling, Project, Ceiling, and Value: 

Player Team Salary Ceiling Projection Floor Value
Nikola Vucevic ORL 8600 52.999 39.512 26.026 4.594
Andre Drummond DET 8300 51.886 37.810 23.734 4.555
Al Jefferson CHA 8300 47.098 34.772 22.447 4.189
Marc Gasol MEM 7900 42.153 32.953 23.753 4.171
Al Horford ATL 8200 43.815 31.895 19.974 3.890
Jusuf Nurkic DEN 5600 45.395 31.592 17.789 5.641
Andrew Bogut GS 5300 51.261 28.299 5.336 5.339
Marcin Gortat WAS 5200 32.963 23.708 14.454 4.559
Jordan Hill LAL 5800 31.029 23.252 15.475 4.009
Robin Lopez POR 5100 33.184 23.005 12.826 4.511
Roy Hibbert IND 5700 34.958 22.970 10.982 4.030
Enes Kanter OKC 5900 32.433 22.800 13.167 3.864
Larry Sanders MIL 5100 32.223 22.381 12.539 4.389
Tyson Chandler DAL 6300 30.397 21.634 12.871 3.434
Tyler Zeller BOS 4800 29.692 20.755 11.817 4.324
Zaza Pachulia MIL 5100 30.732 20.400 10.068 4.000
Kosta Koufos MEM 3800 27.472 16.614 5.756 4.372
Dewayne Dedmon ORL 3500 26.301 16.209 6.118 4.631
Miles Plumlee MIL 3700 25.578 16.140 6.702 4.362
Robert Sacre LAL 4200 24.447 15.504 6.561 3.691
Chris Kaman POR 3900 21.383 14.391 7.399 3.690
Meyers Leonard POR 3500 22.479 13.973 5.466 3.992
Henry Sims PHI 3500 16.458 10.900 5.343 3.114
Ian Mahinmi IND 3500 16.578 10.687 4.796 3.053
JaVale McGee PHI 3500 17.796 8.472 0.000 2.421
DeJuan Blair WAS 3500 17.582 8.237 0.000 2.353
Shayne Whittington IND 3500 17.003 8.099 0.000 2.314
Jason Maxiell CHA 3700 15.599 7.959 0.319 2.151
Pero Antic ATL 3500 13.743 7.785 1.827 2.224
Festus Ezeli GS 3500 10.418 6.618 2.818 1.891
Johnny O'Bryant MIL 3500 10.618 5.548 0.478 1.585
Lavoy Allen IND 3500 8.558 5.404 2.250 1.544
Ronny Turiaf PHI 3500 3.733 2.653 1.573 0.758
Joel Anthony DET 3500 4.262 1.978 0.000 0.565
Ognjen Kuzmic GS 3500 3.698 1.633 0.000 0.467


Power Forwards

Here is a look at our projections for FanDuel Power Forwards tonight including their Ceiling, Project, Ceiling, and Value:

Player Team Salary Ceiling Projection Floor Value
LaMarcus Aldridge POR 9300 48.835 36.683 24.531 3.944
Greg Monroe DET 7700 48.193 34.036 19.879 4.420
Zach Randolph MEM 8500 44.370 33.846 23.321 3.982
Paul Millsap ATL 7600 43.383 31.821 20.259 4.187
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 6300 40.163 29.562 18.960 4.692
David West IND 6700 37.651 27.417 17.183 4.092
Serge Ibaka OKC 7100 37.790 26.955 16.121 3.796
Nerlens Noel PHI 6500 39.791 26.673 13.556 4.104
Kenneth Faried DEN 6200 35.272 23.767 12.262 3.833
Ed Davis LAL 6000 34.000 22.493 10.986 3.749
John Henson MIL 5200 34.365 20.683 7.000 3.977
Carlos Boozer LAL 5600 30.675 20.445 10.215 3.651
Brandon Bass BOS 4800 31.732 20.444 9.157 4.259
Nene Hilario WAS 5300 30.718 20.387 10.057 3.847
Luis Scola IND 4300 28.166 19.517 10.868 4.539
Cody Zeller CHA 4900 29.566 18.579 7.593 3.792
David Lee GS 5300 24.343 18.249 12.154 3.443
Darrell Arthur DEN 3500 26.840 17.233 7.625 4.924
Mitch McGary OKC 3800 32.266 16.354 0.442 4.304
Amar'e Stoudemire DAL 5200 23.281 16.243 9.205 3.124
Nick Collison OKC 3800 27.982 16.082 4.182 4.232
Kevin Seraphin WAS 3600 24.523 16.027 7.531 4.452
Mike Scott ATL 3500 24.590 15.898 7.205 4.542
J.J. Hickson DEN 4000 22.979 15.744 8.510 3.936
Marvin Williams CHA 4200 23.743 15.275 6.807 3.637
Jerami Grant PHI 3800 24.194 15.093 5.993 3.972
Drew Gooden WAS 3600 31.313 15.026 0.000 4.174
Jakarr Sampson PHI 3600 37.119 14.970 0.000 4.158
Marreese Speights GS 4100 21.193 13.802 6.411 3.366
Tarik Black LAL 3500 23.116 13.783 4.450 3.938
Charlie Villanueva DAL 3800 24.571 13.456 2.341 3.541
Kenyon Martin MIL 3600 22.075 12.883 3.690 3.578
Kris Humphries WAS 4500 20.378 12.487 4.597 2.775
Ryan Kelly LAL 3500 22.416 11.774 1.132 3.364
Anthony Tolliver DET 3700 22.972 11.694 0.416 3.161
Thomas Robinson DEN 3500 18.680 10.540 2.400 3.012
Ersan Ilyasova MIL 3500 16.500 9.762 3.025 2.789
Kyle O'Quinn ORL 3500 14.641 9.329 4.017 2.665
Channing Frye ORL 3500 14.167 9.295 4.423 2.656
Elton Brand ATL 3500 15.578 9.193 2.809 2.627
Jonas Jerebko BOS 3500 15.426 9.173 2.921 2.621
Dwight Powell DAL 3500 16.108 9.038 1.967 2.582
Greg Smith DAL 3500 17.646 8.938 0.231 2.554
Noah Vonleh CHA 3600 13.391 8.815 4.239 2.449
Jon Leuer MEM 3500 14.819 8.801 2.783 2.515
Andrew Nicholson ORL 3500 17.024 8.339 0.000 2.382
Malcolm Thomas PHI 3500 13.361 7.078 0.796 2.022
Aaron Gordon ORL 3500 11.119 6.965 2.811 1.990
Jarnell Stokes MEM 3500 14.995 5.703 0.000 1.629
Mike Muscala ATL 3500 9.122 4.883 0.643 1.395
Furkan Aldemir PHI 3500 7.813 4.387 0.962 1.254
Tyrus Thomas MEM 3500 6.979 3.404 0.000 0.973
James Michael McAdoo GS 3500 5.661 3.200 0.740 0.914
Shavlik Randolph BOS 3500 7.236 3.104 0.000 0.887


Point Guards

Here is a look at our projections for FanDuel Point Guards tonight including their Ceiling, Project, Ceiling, and Value: 

Player Team Salary Ceiling Projection Floor Value
Russell Westbrook OKC 11000 64.610 48.130 31.650 4.375
Stephen Curry GS 10200 56.880 43.130 29.380 4.228
Ty Lawson DEN 8400 52.293 39.483 26.673 4.700
John Wall WAS 9100 47.948 36.838 25.728 4.048
Damian Lillard POR 8400 45.680 34.080 22.480 4.057
Jeff Teague ATL 7200 44.458 31.672 18.887 4.399
Isaiah Thomas BOS 6000 43.265 29.165 15.066 4.861
George Hill IND 5400 38.483 27.305 16.127 5.056
Elfrid Payton ORL 6000 39.159 26.817 14.475 4.470
Mo Williams CHA 5400 37.323 25.668 14.013 4.753
Tony Wroten PHI 6300 37.175 24.539 11.903 3.895
Mike Conley MEM 6500 35.411 24.114 12.817 3.710
D.J. Augustin OKC 7200 35.133 23.149 11.164 3.215
Marcus Smart BOS 5000 33.395 22.909 12.423 4.582
Jordan Clarkson LAL 5100 34.072 19.720 5.368 3.867
Brian Roberts CHA 5100 29.566 18.472 7.377 3.622
Rajon Rondo DAL 5700 26.890 18.362 9.834 3.221
Devin Harris DAL 4700 28.713 18.240 7.768 3.881
Jerryd Bayless MIL 4400 28.994 18.014 7.034 4.094
Jeremy Lin LAL 4500 27.110 17.804 8.498 3.956
Jose Juan Barea DAL 4600 26.312 17.498 8.684 3.804
Dennis Schroder ATL 5000 26.497 17.263 8.030 3.453
Reggie Jackson DET 4400 24.426 17.256 10.086 3.922
Nate Robinson BOS 4800 29.613 17.068 4.523 3.556
Jameer Nelson DEN 4300 26.209 16.272 6.334 3.784
C.J. Watson IND 4400 24.041 15.791 7.541 3.589
Beno Udrih MEM 3700 23.911 15.501 7.091 4.189
John Lucas DET 3500 21.002 13.532 6.062 3.866
Garrett Temple WAS 3500 30.679 13.194 0.000 3.770
Steve Blake POR 3500 21.896 12.552 3.208 3.586
Ramon Sessions WAS 3500 20.795 11.979 3.163 3.423
Nick Calathes MEM 3500 19.982 11.640 3.298 3.326
Ronnie Price LAL 3700 19.260 11.363 3.465 3.071
Shaun Livingston GS 3500 17.433 10.818 4.203 3.091
Luke Ridnour ORL 3500 16.662 9.485 2.307 2.710
Larry Drew II PHI 3500 14.595 8.838 3.080 2.525
Jorge Gutierrez MIL 3500 17.112 8.732 0.351 2.495
Tyler Ennis MIL 3500 13.760 6.810 0.000 1.946
Raymond Felton DAL 3500 17.669 6.653 0.000 1.901
Shelvin Mack ATL 3500 10.920 6.382 1.845 1.823
Jannero Pargo CHA 3500 8.447 4.406 0.365 1.259
Donald Sloan IND 3600 5.676 3.688 1.699 1.024
Isaiah Canaan PHI 3500 5.002 2.406 0.000 0.687
Phil (Flip) Pressey BOS 3500 3.880 2.032 0.184 0.581
Kalin Lucas MEM 3500 2.000 2.000 2.000 0.571
Troy Daniels CHA 3500 2.879 1.171 0.000 0.335
Russ Smith MEM 3500 4.200 0.423 0.000 0.121


Small Forward

Here is a look at our projections for FanDuel Small Forwards tonight including their Ceiling, Project, Ceiling, and Value: 

Player Team Salary Ceiling Projection Floor Value
Draymond Green GS 7000 42.900 30.660 18.420 4.380
Wilson Chandler DEN 5900 36.356 25.697 15.038 4.355
Robert Covington PHI 6300 39.135 25.458 11.781 4.041
Khris Middleton MIL 6500 36.686 24.680 12.673 3.797
Gerald Henderson CHA 5700 35.998 23.947 11.896 4.201
Jared Dudley MIL 4900 37.262 23.323 9.384 4.760
Jeff Green MEM 4900 32.935 23.145 13.355 4.723
DeMarre Carroll ATL 5400 34.353 22.929 11.505 4.246
Nicolas Batum POR 5600 32.867 22.883 12.899 4.086
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute PHI 5000 32.673 22.876 13.079 4.575
Paul Pierce WAS 4400 31.072 20.951 10.831 4.762
C.J. Miles IND 4700 31.974 20.254 8.534 4.309
Al-Farouq Aminu DAL 4800 35.016 18.970 2.923 3.952
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist CHA 5700 26.213 18.380 10.548 3.225
Danilo Gallinari DEN 3800 27.012 17.178 7.345 4.521
Andre Iguodala GS 4500 26.288 17.175 8.063 3.817
Harrison Barnes GS 4400 22.936 16.950 10.964 3.852
Wesley Johnson LAL 4000 25.280 16.512 7.743 4.128
Hollis Thompson PHI 4000 25.952 16.072 6.191 4.018
Jae Crowder BOS 4000 27.479 14.695 1.911 3.674
Rasual Butler WAS 3500 24.809 13.942 3.074 3.983
Otto Porter WAS 3700 22.152 13.440 4.729 3.633
Solomon Hill IND 3900 19.859 13.424 6.989 3.442
Kyle Singler OKC 3500 22.514 13.316 4.118 3.805
Jeffery Taylor CHA 3500 30.669 12.665 0.000 3.618
Caron Butler DET 3900 20.613 12.045 3.477 3.088
James Young BOS 3500 18.563 9.375 0.186 2.678
Dorell Wright POR 3500 13.646 8.350 3.054 2.386
Alonzo Gee POR 3500 17.078 8.114 0.000 2.318
Damjan Rudez IND 3600 15.128 7.895 0.663 2.193
Steve Novak OKC 3500 22.982 7.819 0.000 2.234
Luigi Datome BOS 3500 14.096 6.635 0.000 1.896
Martell Webster WAS 3500 12.769 6.442 0.115 1.841
Jeremy Lamb OKC 3500 9.397 4.398 0.000 1.256
Maurice Harkless ORL 3500 7.934 4.358 0.782 1.245
Perry Jones III OKC 3500 8.113 4.291 0.469 1.226
Quincy Miller DET 3500 8.809 3.894 0.000 1.113
Chris Copeland IND 3500 7.638 3.819 0.000 1.091
JaMychal Green MEM 3500 7.517 3.669 0.000 1.048
Richard Jefferson DAL 3500 8.750 3.581 0.000 1.023
Cartier Martin DET 3500 8.980 3.578 0.000 1.022
Drew Gordon PHI 3500 6.253 3.175 0.098 0.907
Gerald Wallace BOS 3500 5.739 2.659 0.000 0.760
Justin Holiday GS 3500 3.715 2.002 0.290 0.572
Andrei Kirilenko PHI 3500 3.173 1.398 0.000 0.399
Victor Claver DEN 3500 3.667 1.303 0.000 0.372
Chris Douglas-Roberts BOS 3500 1.911 0.804 0.000 0.230


Shooting Guard

Here is a look at our projections for FanDuel Small Forwards tonight including their Ceiling, Project, Ceiling, and Value:  

Player Team Salary Ceiling Projection Floor Value
Monta Ellis DAL 6800 45.862 32.754 19.647 4.817
Klay Thompson GS 7100 44.445 30.645 16.845 4.316
Victor Oladipo ORL 6900 40.843 29.611 18.379 4.291
Evan Turner BOS 5800 42.268 28.141 14.014 4.852
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 6600 38.809 28.127 17.445 4.262
Jason Richardson PHI 3800 26.156 26.156 26.156 6.883
Avery Bradley BOS 5500 37.394 23.824 10.253 4.332
Wesley Matthews POR 6000 34.001 23.473 12.945 3.912
Kyle Korver ATL 4700 31.696 21.404 11.111 4.554
Evan Fournier ORL 4100 32.682 21.382 10.082 5.215
Rodney Stuckey IND 5100 32.162 20.049 7.937 3.931
O.J. Mayo MIL 5200 29.847 19.947 10.047 3.836
Tony Allen MEM 4000 29.316 19.716 10.116 4.929
Dion Waiters OKC 4500 31.204 19.512 7.820 4.336
Wayne Ellington LAL 4900 30.202 19.024 7.847 3.883
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DET 5000 28.732 18.842 8.952 3.768
Jodie Meeks DET 3800 27.643 17.979 8.316 4.731
Lance Stephenson CHA 4900 23.381 16.748 10.115 3.418
Nick Young LAL 3900 25.668 16.692 7.716 4.280
Arron Afflalo POR 5200 24.407 16.351 8.295 3.144
Kent Bazemore ATL 4100 25.018 14.496 3.973 3.536
Randy Foye DEN 3500 27.557 14.432 1.307 4.123
Courtney Lee MEM 3500 22.003 14.428 6.853 4.122
Leandro Barbosa GS 3700 24.683 14.413 4.144 3.896
Anthony Morrow OKC 3600 22.540 14.156 5.773 3.932
C.J. McCollum POR 3500 24.645 12.735 0.825 3.639
Willie Green ORL 3700 20.638 12.091 3.544 3.268
P.J. Hairston CHA 3500 18.668 10.301 1.935 2.943
Andre Roberson OKC 3500 15.781 9.647 3.514 2.756
Spencer Dinwiddie DET 3800 17.722 9.508 1.295 2.502
Roy Devyn Marble ORL 3500 16.999 7.405 0.000 2.116
Ben Gordon ORL 3500 10.550 5.975 1.400 1.707
Erick Green DEN 3500 8.563 4.458 0.352 1.274
Elliot Williams CHA 3500 12.588 4.162 0.000 1.189
Jordan Adams MEM 3500 8.878 4.126 0.000 1.179
Xavier Henry LAL 3500 7.467 3.505 0.000 1.002
Brandon Rush GS 3500 7.346 3.378 0.000 0.965
Gary Harris DEN 3500 6.380 3.085 0.000 0.881
Will Barton DEN 3500 6.153 2.960 0.000 0.846
Jared Cunningham PHI 3500 7.314 2.688 0.000 0.768
John Jenkins ATL 3500 4.497 2.054 0.000 0.587
Andre Dawkins BOS 3500 5.458 1.788 0.000 0.511
Allen Crabbe POR 3500 3.798 1.566 0.000 0.447
Ricky Ledo DAL 3500 2.532 0.791 0.000 0.226
Malcolm Lee PHI 3500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000


Optimal Lineup

Here is an optimal lineup (6 pm FanDuel games) using the projections above. Note, these projections are a baseline guide and should give you an indication of what to expect from each player but should be helped by additional analysis.

Screen Shot 2015-02-22 At 12.57.40 PM

Note: FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 tournament where the winner takes home $20,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel!



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