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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 11, 2015

I may have not been entirely truthful yesterday when I said that format would be a one-time thing. I enjoyed writing it that way and a few of you told me you enjoyed it as well. I’ll likely return to the Take/Avoid/Consider layout after the All-Star break. I’ll just be highlighting some of my favorite guys from each game.

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New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic

I am moving forward with my analysis based on the assumption that both Carmelo Anthony and Tobias Harris will NOT suit up.

Nikola Vucevic | C | DK: $8.3k | FD: $8.4k

With Harris out he sees a bump in usage as well as a few additional minutes. New York doesn’t provide much in the way of big men, so he should have a field day.

Langston Galloway | PG | DK: $5.4k | FD: $5.3k

When Melo isn’t on the court everyone typically picks up some of the slack. Galloway will have extra opportunities to score, rebound and potentially see more minutes. With Orlando refusing to play defense lately, especially against PGs, he looks to hit 6x+ his salary.

Lance Thomas | PF/SF | DK: $3.2k | FD: $3.5k

Just about everyone is back and healthy in New York so rotations are difficult to predict. Having said that, Thomas has gotten some additional time when Melo missed. He’ll be battling for minutes in the frontcourt but the opportunity will be there. He isn’t going to be highly owned and could hit 25+ FP if he does end up getting most of Anthony’s minutes. 

Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Al Horford | C | DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.3k

Kelly Olynyk is considered doubtful for this game, so Boston will still run with a small lineup for the majority of this contest. Zeller could see additional minutes to better matchup with Al, but that’s a matchup Horford would kill for. Given his consistent record and potential ceiling, I like him a lot.

Paul Millsap | PF | DK: $7.8k | FD: $7.9k

Again, Boston doesn’t have great interior defense. They play fast and shoot often but not well. That means rebounds and turnovers, both playing into Millsap’s wheelhouse. It’s a riskier option than Horford but his ceiling is arguably higher.

Marcus Smart | PG | DK: $4.7k | FD: $4.8k

His only bad game since starting for the Celtics came against Milwaukee, one of the best defensive backcourts in the NBA. The Hawks play solid defense as well but more as a unit than at any specific position. Teague allows quite a few points to PGs in fact.

Avery Bradley | SG | DK: $4.6k | FD: $5k

I’m not one that takes a ton of enjoyment from rostering scoring heavy guys, but this guy fits. He’s seeing a ton of minutes and the matchup isn’t terrible. He won’t be highly owned and the Celtics are playing at home. 7-8x upside for a relatively cheap option. 

San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Kawhi Leonard | SF | DK: $7.5k | FD: $7.7k

He’s had a couple of rough games lately. One against the defense of James Johnson which has been surprisingly good. The other in a knock-down drag out game against the Pacers. I look for him to bounce back against the Pistons who have nobody worthy of mentioning at SF.

Tim Duncan | PF | DK: $7.4k | FD: $8.1k

I don’t like him a ton on FanDuel. His counterpart, Greg Monroe, is actually cheaper there. On DraftKings, however, he’s very reasonably priced. Definitely keep your ear to the ground in case Popvich decides to rest him.

Andre Drummond | C | DK: $7.8k | FD: $7.4k

The way to beat the Spurs is to take control of the paint. The Splitter/Baynes combo isn’t scary in the least. He’s still more of a tournament play despite his numbers averaging out lately.

Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors

Kyle Lowry | PG | DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.9k

His price keeps getting lower. Wall’s ankles are being held together with tape and both teams are battling for a top seed in the east. It’s true that his usage is down with DeRozan back, but his price is down too.

DeMar DeRozan | SG | DK: $7k | FD: $6.9k

Keep an eye on the starting lineup as it could have a huge impact on DeRozan’s performance. If James Johnson starts again like it did against the Spurs, DeMar will move to SG. If Grievus Vasquez returns to the starting rotation then that bumps DeMar down to SF. We want Johnson to start as that’ll leave DeRozan guarded by Otto Porter, Garret Temple or Rasual Butler. He takes a ton of shots and he’s done a good job at rebounding among other things lately.

Garret Temple | SG/PG | DK: $3k | FD: $3.6k

Not a huge fan but it’s a play against the field. If he starts again he’ll see minutes in the mid 20s. Against a team like the Raptors, IN Toronto, that’s plenty of run for him to hit value. 

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Stephen Curry | PG | DK: $10.3k | FD: $10k

The matchup doesn’t look great on paper according to some DvP stats, but why wouldn’t it be? Is Ricky Rubio going to contain Curry? Is Zach LaVine going to do it? That’s highly doubtful. If you can pay up for him do so, he guarantees you 40+ FP.

Kevin Martin | SG | DK: $6.1k | FD: $6.8k

Not a fan of him on FanDuel, I think you can find better value elsewhere. On DraftKings, when it comes to tournaments, you’re asking for about 36 FP out of him. He’s surpassed that mark in 2 of his last 4 games. The O/U in this one is ridiculous and the Timberwolves should be able to keep it relatively close so he can keep firing away.

Shabazz Muhammad | SF | DK: $3.4k | FD: $6.4k

Do you see that DraftKings price? He’s a steal there. He will probably see 20-25 minutes off of the bench in this one. Again, there is going to be a lot of points scored and opportunities to rack up FP in this one. He’s an absolute lock for me on DK.

Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans

I believe Anthony Davis plays tonight. Ryan Anderson is already ruled out, so that still opens up some time for other guys. I still like Tyreke Evans regardless of who’s on the court, but Eric Gordon takes a small hit with Davis back. If Davis happens to miss, however, Ajinca is back in play, Gordon gets a bump and David West’s matchup is 10x easier.

Tyreke Evans | PG/SG | DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.4k

George Hill is a good defender but I doubt he can keep Tyreke from doing what he does. The Pacers play slow and are good at defending as a unit, so temper your expectations. I still like him to hit 5x and potentially flirt with 6x if Davis doesn’t play.

David West | PF | DK: $6.5k | FD: $6.8k

I’d be comfortable playing him whether Davis is in or not, but if he misses this guy is going into a ton of my lineups. He would have no trouble with Ajinca, Cunningham and Pondexter. He’s been playing really well lately and should see additional minutes anyways with Allen and Mahinmi questionable to play. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are good basketball players. They’re both on the table on any given night. If you want them take them. If you don’t then don’t. Let’s talk about some other guys.

Zach Randolph | PF | DK: $8.3k | FD: $8.6k

He rebounds and he scores. He throws in a few assists and defensive stats. His price is a few hundred too high but that’s okay. The Grizzlies played last night so I’m not a huge fan of this guy but you won’t likely be disappointed.

Mitch McGary | PF | DK: $3.8k | FD: $4.3k

Yeah, can’t believe this guy has popped up on our radar now. He’s double-doubled in his last two games and looks to see more minutes with Adams still out. I think it’d be crazy to give Perkins more minutes. It’s not a great matchup but he’s active and cheap. I’m expecting the Thunder to get a decent sized lead here so that’s another factor in his favor. 

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Hassan Whiteside | C | DK: $7.6k | FD: $7.7k

Any night you fail to roster this guy you’re risking a ton of points. There are a few things going against him – foul trouble is huge. Mozgov is guilty of it as well, but a few drives from James could have him sitting on the bench. His ankles are still a cause for concern. So how many minutes will he play? None of us know. But if he sees over 25, the potential for him to hit 7x is there.

Timofey Mozgov | C | DK: $5.1k | FD: $5.5k

Moz doesn’t have the ceiling that Whiteside does but he’s much more consistent and far cheaper. The matchup doesn’t seem great initially but Timo’s been around the NBA. He knows how to handle himself. 

Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks

DeMarcus Cousins | C | DK: $10.5k | FD: $10.8k

Milwaukee is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, but they don’t have to size to matchup with Cousins. They don’t have the firepower to obtain a huge lead and run away with the game. He’s going to get plenty of minutes despite a disappointing loss last night to the Bulls.

Brandon Knight | PG | DK: $7.4k | FD: $7.7k

Knight had a bad shooting day against Brooklyn. I don’t think he’ll shoot so poorly tonight, so I like him to return to value. I don’t believe Collison plays so that’s even better.

Giannis Antetokounmpo | SF/SG | DK: $7k | FD: $6.8k

The rise in price is worrying me a bit but I can be as skeptical as I want. As long as he’s posting numbers in the upper 30s and higher, I’m not complaining. In fact, I’ll be rostering him. It seems that Kidd has finally understood how freakishly talented this kid is.

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks

Gordon Hayward | SF | DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.5k

This guy is playing really well lately. Dallas is missing a few key pieces so it remains to be seen what their rotations will look like, but his matchup will surely be favorable.

Chandler Parsons | SF | DK: 6.5k | FD: $6.6k

I’m not sure if I’m comfortable with his price yet, but his usage should be through the roof now with Chandler and Ellis OUT. He’s going to score and rebound at will. The ball will be in his hands more than almost anyone else on the floor.

Enes Kanter | C | DK: $5.8k | FD: $6.1k

He’s a great shooter and rebounder. Without Chandler inside, Dallas won’t have an easy time stopping him from doing either.

J.J. Barea | PG | DK: $4.9k | FD: $4.8k

He’s still sharing court time with Harris but as long as Ellis is out their minutes won’t really be affected. They’re going to get plenty of them against a weak Utah backcourt. At his price, I’ll be considering him for a lot of lineups.

Devin Harris | PG | DK: $4.6k | FD: $4.5k

Same news as Barea although his ceiling is a bit higher. He’s a good scorer and could get some additional looks at the basket with a couple of high usage guys out. 

Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard | PG | DK: $8.7k | FD: $8.9k

The explanation is short – Lillard is good and the Lakers aren’t. Portland is at home against a tired, thin Lakers team. This game isn’t going to be close so you’re risking a ton of minutes here but it could definitely pay off. 

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden | SG | DK: $10.3k | FD: $11.2k

You just can’t scroll past this guy today. He’s had TWO 70+ FP games in a row. I doubt he does so again, but the opportunity is still there. The Clippers are under-manned and struggle to defend against wing players. With new blood on the floor, Harden could have a field day by drawing fouls and getting back to the line. If you fade him you may very well throw all of your money away.

Chris Paul | PG | DK: $9.6k | FD: $10k

I realize that the matchup isn’t the great, but Beverley is tired and defending rather poorly lately. CP3’s usage rate is through the roof without Griffin on the floor. I have his floor at 4.5x, which is around 40 FP. Why not lock that in?

DeAndre Jordan | C | DK: $7.8k | FD: $8.6k

Houston doesn’t have Dwight, so there’s no interior defense or rebounding. We saw how DJ destroyed Dallas’ interior without Chandler. He’s poised to do the very same thing tonight.

Josh Smith | SF/PF | DK: $6.4k | FD: $6.1k

He continues to be great off of the bench for the Rockets. The Clippers play at a fast pace so he’ll likely hit value again.

Trevor Ariza | SF | DK: $5.7k | FD: $5.5k

Matt Barnes isn’t the greatest defender and Ariza has been playing great as of late. Even with an off game last night, he managed to hit 4.5x his salary.

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. I run a contest every single night around 6 P.M. EST for a $2 GPP entry. It’s free money, so why not try it out? All I ask is that you follow me and @SportingCharts before you accept the prize. Also don’t forget to come back tomorrow as I do this kind of analysis every single day. Cheers!

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