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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 2, 2015

What a great Super Bowl. Congrats to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. However, now back to our regular programming of NBA daily fantasy. Here is my look at the slate of games and players to focus on.

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Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards

John Wall, PG (DK: $9.1k | FD: $9.2k)

Averaging about 6 more FP at home than he is away, Wall is a great choice on tonight’s slate. He’s averaged 37 minutes and 16 FGA in his last 6 games. I factored out OT minutes so don’t worry. His rebounding numbers have gone up as well which I attribute to Nene and Gortat virtually disappearing. Charlotte struggles against guards especially now that Kemba is OUT. If we project him to play 35 minutes then we can lock him in at about 38 FP, making him a decent cash game option in addition to tournaments.

Cody Zeller, PF (DK: $5.5k | FD: $5.3k)

With 32, 37 and 32 minutes on the court in his past 3 games, Zeller is looking like a more promising play in DFS. Looking at his box score he is becoming a 5x5 guy, meaning he can rack up assists, steals and blocks in addition to the expected points and rebounds. Admittedly, his recent matchups have been softer than this one. That being said, don’t let the numbers on paper scare you. Kris Humphries (who we will discuss shortly) is seeing more playing time. Washington has allowed PFs like Amir Johnson and Markieff Morris to have very solid outings recently. At his price, Zeller is worth a look.

Khris Humphries, PF (DK: $4.6k | FD: $4.9k)

He’s averaged 29 minutes in his last 4 games. With the Wizards trying to take care of Nene we can expect that trend to continue. Humphries has achieved a double-double in 3 of his last 4, 2 points shy of running the table. On DraftKings he has bottomed out at 23 points, right at 5x his current salary. All signs point to him being a great cash game play with tournament chops.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

My opinion on LeBron James may change, but as of right now it’s this – don’t take the chance. Considering he was doubtful to go against the Kings I see no reason they would sent him out there in this one. Even if he plays, I’m not expecting a full 4 quarters out of him. The Cavs can win this one without him.

Kyrie Irving, PG (DK: $8.7k | FD: $9.5k)

Given my stance on LBJ above, it would be unfair of me to ignore Kyrie. If what I expect to happen actually does then Irving would become a lock for virtually every lineup. The 76ers give up nearly 50 FP a game to opposing point guards. I believe Kyrie’s usage jumps up to 40+% when LeBron is out, making him the most intriguing player on this slate. Now that I’ve said all that, if LBJ plays, Kyrie is not going into my cash lineups. Not even close.

Michael Carter-Williams, PG (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.5k)

If you still think MCW is this must-play guy with Wroten out then you’re wrong. If you think he’s a hit or miss tournament play that you should at least consider, then you’d be right. Robert Covington is now leading the team in FGAs. The 76ers spread their minutes out fairly evenly, giving 10-11 guys a run each night. So we can’t rely on MCW to put up 20+ shots or log 40+ minutes. He’s still going to get close to a triple-double on most nights and that alone merits consideration.

Robert Covington, SF/PF (DK: $5k | FD: $5.6k)

As I mentioned above, Covington has been shooting the ball more than anyone else on the 76ers lately. We can also safely project him around 25-30 minutes. Having hit 5x in 6 of his last 7 games, he’s a very reliable cash game option. I’d rather roster someone like Nerlens Noel for tournament plays though.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF (DK: $4.2k | FD: $4.5k)

I’m genuinely surprised that his price hasn’t climbed more. He’s played over 30 minutes in 7 of his last 10. With 10+ FGAs in his last 4, most of them beyond the arc, he makes a great choice tonight especially on DK.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets

Chris Paul, PG (DK: $9.3k | FD: $9.7k)

I understand that he hasn’t looked all that great for DFS lately, but we know what he’s capable of. The Brooklyn backcourt is prone to turning the ball over so I’m setting the O/U for steals at 2.5. That’s a nice little floor. They allow about 45 FP/game to PGs on the season. In his last game vs. BKN, CP3 was able to dish out 17 assists in 24 minutes. I’m projecting about 33 for him in this one, setting his floor at 36 FP with 55 FP upside. I don’t believe he’ll be all that highly owned tonight making for a nice tournament play.

Mason Plumlee, C (DK: $5.4k | FD: $6.4k)

He’s likely to be overshadowed by guys like Jarret Jack and Brook Lopez so I look for his ownership to be low. His minutes are trending upwards, but I expect him to log around 27 tonight. It’s a favorable matchup and his floor is considerably high given his price – 23 FP. On DK in particular, I’ll certainly be looking at him for my cash lineup.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors

Brandon Knight, PG (DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.6k)

Toronto gives up the 2nd most possessions to opposing PGs in the league. They also allow them to score, on average, 44 FP a game. Knight was poised to have a solid outing against Portland but his shot was a bit off. I chalk that up as an anomaly, I doubt he shoots at under 30% in this one. His price is the lowest it’s been in a month, so I still like him for cash games.

DeMar DeRozan, SG (DK: $7k | FD: $6.8k)

Despite having a tough games against the Bucks earlier in the year, I like him to play well tonight. His usage is the highest on the team and he averages 14 shot attempts per game, giving him a relatively high floor. If you remember last season he was near the top of the league in PPG and stayed above 8k on sites like DK and FD. It’s a matter of time before he returns, so you should cash in now.

Lou Williams, SG (DK: $4.8k | FD: $5.5k)

If DeRozan’s price is too rich for your blood then take his backup. The Toronto coaching staff has given Lou the green light, so he’s going to take about 15 shot attempts a game. Against Milwaukee’s second unit, he should meet little resistance. I have him projected at 27 minutes tonight so, at slightly over 1 FP/min, his floor is the same. Great for any format.

Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans

I don’t like a ton of players in this game as you’ll soon see. Most of the value hinges on the health of Anthony Davis. If he in fact plays, and I believe he will, guys like Gordon, Anderson and Ajinca are too expensive for my tastes.

Al Horford, C (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.1k)

If you feel the need to pay up for a C then Horford is one of the best, if not THE best, particularly when it comes to cash games. He’s a lock for 4x his salary even as his price climbs. There’s really not a ton of analysis necessary here as he’s proved that he’s matchup proof.

Tyreke Evans, SG (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.2k)

Evans doesn’t see a huge change in usage when Davis in on or off the court. He draws a good matchup here as Atlanta’s weakness lies at the point. Teague is prone to turning the ball over so I expect 2+ steals for Tyreke in this one. His upside isn’t remarkable by any means but his ability to hit 6x on any night certainly is.

Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant? That’s likely going to be a hot topic all day long. Both of them had tough games against Memphis. Neither of them give you a ton of confidence when you take them. Obviously they’re tournament only plays as their floors float around 3x their salary. I would choose Durant over Russell. The Magic are allowing a ton of points recently and obviously that’s KD’s specialty. I have him projected at 36 minutes compared to 32 for Westbrook. He also plays much, much better at home.

Serge Ibaka, PF (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7k)

Ibaka’s usage rate isn’t really affected by Durant’s presence, so I still like his upside. Orlando is extremely weak at the PF position so I like Serge to flirt with double digits in both the points and rebounds column. Against a less athletic and shorter Orlando team, I also have him projected at 2 blocks and a steal. Those peripherals will have him stacking FP in no time.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks

Monta Ellis, SG (DK: $7.5k | FD: $7.8k)
Kevin Martin is back in the starting lineup for the T-Wolves, so I’m not too concerned with Wiggins guarding Monta. His potential to knock down 10+ shots and dish out double-digit assists is more than enough to earn a spot in my tournament lineup. Rondo isn’t expected so play tonight so Ellis’ usage jumps way up.

Nikola Pekovic, C (DK: $5.3k | FD: $5.9k)

It looks like he won the starting job over Dieng which surprised me quite a bit. It’s not a terrible matchup here as Chandler can’t stay on the court forever. He can rebound well but his defense is still lacking. At under $6k, Pek is looking really nice for tournaments.

Kevin Martin, SG (DK: $5.1k | FD: $6.5k)

I still believe his price on FD is really unreasonable given what we’ve seen from him lately. His ceiling is fairly high considering the amount of shots he takes. Anyone who shoots greater than 15 times a game can drop 40 on any given night. It’s a good matchup here with Ellis. He’s also a solid pick for cash games with a floor around 22 FP.

Devin Harris, PG (DK: $3.1k | FD: $3.5k)

Harris could draw the start if Rondo can’t play. It’s a fantastic matchup as Mo Williams and Zach LaVine are still questionable. Even if they play, their defense isn’t going to be much better. At near min. price I have him projected to hit at least 6x with 10x upside. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns

I said this with the GS-PHO game a couple of nights back and I’ll say it again. Phoenix likes to play fast paced ball. They have some talent but no one guy sticks out. You know there’s value on that squad, but good luck finding it on any given night. They only have two guys that seem to hit value a good chunk of the time – Markieff Morris and Isaiah Thomas. Everyone else is a huge risk.

Zach Randolph, PF (DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.6k)

It’s a good matchup, he’s going to get 34-38 minutes, the O/U is nice and so is the projected pace. All of those numbers combine to give me this one – 37. That’s the FP floor for ZBo tonight.

Eric Bledsoe, SG (DK: $8k | FD: $8.6k)

Yes he’s a risk and no he hasn’t normally hit value, even in favorable matchups. That’s what can make him such a good play tonight. With Courtney Lee and Tony Allen continuing to split minutes, he has the best matchup on the floor for the suns. He continues to take around 35 minutes a game and he’ll typically put up 10+ shots. He isn’t going to be highly owned, he’ll probably net you around 34 FP, but he could go off and get you 50. Your move, hoss.

Markieff Morris, PF (DK: $6k | FD: $6.3k)

He’s been playing really well lately. They’ve given him a run of 30+ minutes on the court in 3 straight games. ZBo isn’t the best defender out there so Morris will get his. I have him at 32 minutes with a floor of 28 FP. You could do a lot worse than that. 

Good luck out there everyone! You can follow me on Twitter @Steven_Royalty_ if you have a question you need answered or just want to talk DFS. 

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