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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 25, 2015


Tough news broke last night – Derrick Rose will likely miss the remainder of the season with what looks like a meniscus tear in his knee. Such a terrible thing to happen. It’s doubtful that we ever witness the MVP Rose again. However, certain ‘analysts’ are saying this isn’t all that bad for the bulls. Colin Cowherd, for those of you that care, said he believed the Bulls would still make the ECF. It remains to be seen.

The Bulls and 23 other teams play tonight so there’s a ton to get to. Why don’t we do it?

Editors note: We just released two brand new tool for NBA daily fantasy. The NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker gives a complete breakdown of each player from a value perspective including averages, ranges, risks, and more! And the Defense vs. Position Report which details how each position stacks up against each NBA team.

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Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic

Hassan Whiteside | C | DK: $7.8k | FD: $7.5k

Without Bosh in the mix all of the rebounds are his. Orlando is just terrible defensively. They’re looking a bit better with a different coach to guide them, but still nowhere near good enough to stop the Hassanity.

Goran Dragic | PG | DK: $6.3k | FD: $6.3k

He’s mixing in well with the Heat and his usage should stay fairly high with Bosh out. He got into a decent groove against the 76ers and faces a similarly awful defense in the Magic. I don’t expect another 40+ FP outing, but he’s easily capable of mid 30s.

Elfrid Payton | PG | DK: $5.6k | FD: $6k

It’s all about the value here. The matchup isn’t great but it doesn’t have to be. With Tobias a little banged up he could see some additional usage and/or playing time. He’s one of my favorite mid-tier cash plays tonight.

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

**Potentially cancelled due to weather**

Paul Millsap | PF | DK: $8k | FD: 7.6k

Dirk and the rest of Dallas will have a lot of trouble containing Millsap. He put up a fantastic line against Milwaukee, a team surprisingly stingy on the defensive end. Should be a high scoring affair so plenty of opportunity to score. I favor Millsap over Horford tonight.

Al-Farouq Aminu | SF | DK: $4.8k | FD: $4.8k

Richard Jefferson is likely drawing the start again but that lines him up against DeMarre Carroll. Aminu avoids that solid defense as he is still coming off of the bench. This game could get out of hand with Parsons still out, meaning more playing time.

Dennis Schroder | PG | DK: $3.2k | FD: $5k

Monitor Jeff Teague’s health before tip-off. If he’s scratches, Schroder will draw the start. With Rondo and Carlisle butting heads, Harris or Barea could be across from him for the majority of the game. I like those odds and I like his price on DraftKings.

Devin Harris | PG | DK: $4.1k | FD: $4.7k

He’s a risky play but he can score. If Rondo indeed gets capped again, Harris will get a decent go at the Hawks. With Teague ailing and Schroder being a backup, the opposing PG defense is slim to none. I’d still take Schroder over Harris if I’m looking for a PG punt/value play.

New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics

Isaiah Thomas | PG | DK: $5.8k | FD: $6.1k

There’s a lot of Boston here if you hadn’t noticed. They’re the new Milwaukee Bucks – run 4 or 5 of them in your tournaments and rake in the cash. IT isn’t starting yet but that’s sort of good for tonight. He could get some additional minutes against the Knicks and it’s not like they’ll stop him from scoring. They allow more 3-pointers than anyone else.

Brandon Bass | PF | DK: $5.6k | FD: $5k

With Sully out for the season Bass will take his place. He said recently that he would be open to coming back to Boston next season, so that may give Stevens a bit of breathing room which = more freedom and playing time. The NY interior is a joke so he should be fine.

Jae Crowder | PF/SF | DK: $4.1k | FD: $4.2k

His price is rising and for good reason. Cash in now because he’s going to give you 25-35 FP for the foreseeable future. With most of the NY wings questionable, I highly doubt they have anyone to cap his upside.

Avery Bradley | SG | DK: $5.5k | FD: $5.8k

What an absolute beast. He can shoot and he can create turnovers. He’s logged 13 steals in his past 3 games. I see no reason why he doesn’t continue that trend tonight. Temper your expectations a bit though. As in don’t roster him and expect 50+. Good thing is you don’t even need close to that to hit value.

Tyler Zeller | C | DK: $4.8k | FD: $4.8k

If I had to leave a Celtic out of my list it’d be Zeller, but I don’t want to. He’s getting 35+ minutes without Sully and Olynyk and the NY interior is abysmal. They don’t rebound, defend or shoot well. He could hit 7x tonight rather easily.

Andrea Bargnani | PF | DK: $3.2k | FD: $3.8k

The only NY Knick I’m comfortable starting because he’s so cheap. He isn’t going to pop off for 40 FP, but he can get you 5-7x against the likes of Bass and Zeller.

Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans

Deron Williams | PG | DK: $6.7k | FD: $5.9k

After returning to the starting rotation he’s been putting up great numbers, achieving a double-double in both contests. Given both opponents are terribly defensively, but the Pelicans aren’t the top of the line. His price jumped significantly but I think you can still feel comfortable taking him in tournaments.

Eric Gordon | SG | DK: $6k | FD: $6.3k

With Tyreke Evans admitting to the media that he isn’t 100%, Gordon should see some additional time and usage. He’s already rather cheap and hitting value quite well so things can only go up from here.

Norris Cole | PG | DK: $3.5k | FD: $4k

Again, with Evans ailing Cole could see some additional court time if anything goes wrong. D Will and Jarret Jack are rather bad defensively, so at his price, 6-7x+ isn’t out of the question. 

Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls

Pau Gasol | PF | DK: $9.8k | FD: $9.3k

It’s the same story across the board for the Bulls – Rose took a ton of shots, so those shots are heading elsewhere. Gasol will see some of them and it begins with a great matchup. Cody Zeller? Ha!

Al Jefferson | C | DK: $7.8k | FD: $8.3k

He’s a great cash game option on DK despite being matched with Joakim Noah, one of the best defensive C in the NBA.

Jimmy Butler | SG | DK: $7.7k | FD: $8.7k

He’s already getting a ridiculous amount of minutes. His usage % will jump with Rose gone. Charlotte’s wing defense can be a bit tough at times but this is Jimmy Buckets we’re talking about.

Mo Williams | PG | DK: $5.6k | FD: $5.4k

Gotta say Mo probably loves it in Charlotte. Reuinted with his old friend Big Al and he’s getting starter’s minutes. He’s taking a ton of shots and should have little trouble knocking them down over Aaron Brooks.

Aaron Brooks | PG | DK: $3.4k | FD: $3.5k

Speak of the devil, he’s likely to draw the start tonight and many starts in the future. He’s quite cheap but it remains to be seen what his upside is. In previous starts we’ve seen him clip 30 FP, so that would be quite nice. There’s a lot of value at PG if you folks hadn’t noticed. 

Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets

Chris Paul | PG | DK: $10.2k | FD: $10k

Not that he had an issue with him before, but Patrick Beverley is questionable. That’s only good news for CP3 and company. He’s a bit expensive and I’m not sure it’s a night to spend up at PG but you certainly could.

DeAndre Jordan | C | DK: $8.8k | FD: $9.2k

Still no Howard for the Rockets so the Houstin interior is quite bare. That’s gonna be a lot of fun for DJ. He’s hit under value a bit lately but for good reason – a crazy matchup against Gasol and few minutes against the Kings.

Terrence Jones | PF | DK: $5.7k | FD: $5.6k

He’s looked good since the break and I’m glad the Rockets have him back. It’s knocked Motiejunas and Smith back a bit, but he’s looking like a decent tournament play tonight. 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks

Michael Carter-Williams | PG | DK: $7.5k | FD: $8.7k

If you want to get a little crazy, throw him in a tournament lineup and watch what happens. He’s expensive, hasn’t played in weeks and will still be battling for minutes in the rotation. Do you believe in revenge games? Are you a fan of narrative? If so then this is your guy!

Khris Middleton | SG/SF | DK: $6.4k | FD: $6.6k

He’s a good cash game play but nothing special. Philly still struggles with wing defense and that’s right up Middleton’s alley.

Nerlens Noel | PF | DK: $5.9k | FD: $6.7k

Like Jones, Noel has been a baller since the break. 9 blocks against the Pacers? That kind of upside is nearly unrivaled in the NBA, only matched by fellow Wildcat alumni Anthony Davis and Heat start Hassanity. 

Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Ricky Rubio | PG | DK: $7k | FD: $6.9k

He’s been so fun to watch lately. Now that he’s healthy opposing teams are at his will. Wall doesn’t play great defense and certainly not away from home. Rubio should have another night around 40 FP.

Nikola Pekovic | C | DK: $6k | FD: $6.4k

Thaddeous Young’s move opened up some minutes and usage for Pek. He’s been playing rather well lately, even in the tougher matchups, hitting above value. I like him to do so again tonight.

Kevin Garnett| PF | DK: $3.3k | FD: $3.9k

Flip confirmed that KG will draw the start tonight. I doubt he plays more than 20 minutes, but in his return to Minnesota why can’t he drop 20 FP?

Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz

**Not chancing it with any Lakers tonight. Far too much value to be ridiculous.**

Derrick Favors | PF | DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.5k

Both of these gentlemen listed here are direct beneficiaries from Enes Kanter’s departure. More playing time and a definitive role on the team makes for more upside. Favors will have no issue scoring and rebounding at will against this Lakers interior.

Rudy Gobert | C | DK: $5.8k | FD: $5.9k

Same story for Gobert. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sent back 5 or 6 shots tonight. His peripherals make him so valuable – he could hit 8-10x on any night. Tonight there’s a good chance that happens.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

Eric Bledsoe | SG | DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.4k

Denver’s defense, particularly on the wing, is extremely porous. It’ll be interesting to see how the Suns deal with the frigid air and elevation, but I think Bledsoe will be just fine.

Danilo Gallinari | SF | DK: $5k | FD: $4k

Gallo should draw the start again with Faried and Chandler questionable. He’s cheap on FanDuel and we know how barren the SF pool can be. Phoenix, PJ Tucker to be exact, doesn’t defend all that well. A nice pick here that a ton of people won’t be on.

Alex Len | C | DK: $4.9k | FD: $5k

It’s been a fairly surprising change of events. Len, since the break, has been getting 30+ minutes a game. In that amount of time a double-double for him is well within reach. Against Denver’s interior I see no reason for him to slow down. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings

Rudy Gay | SF | DK: $7.4k | FD: $7.5k

Not a ton of value in Sacramento. I’m leaning away from Cousins purely because I think there’s a ton of value at C tonight. The matchup isn’t pretty either. This means the ball should shift Rudy’s way a bit more. Jeff Green won’t be able to slow him down.

Mike Conley | PG | DK: $6.4k | FD: $6.6k

He’s looking a lot better after the break and should have a bit of fun against the SAC backcourt. I don’t see him being very highly owned but he has every opportunity to hit 6-7x his salary.

Ray McCallum | PG | DK: $3.3k | FD: $3.5k

One of the best cash plays if you’re looking at the sub $4k range. He managed to hit 10x his salary in their last game against the Clippers, and 6x in three previous games. Memphis’ defense looks scary on paper, but Conley isn’t defending as well as he did earlier in the year. 

San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers

Tim Duncan | PF | DK: $6.8k | FD: $7.6k

Only a few games past the break so I don’t see a ton of Popping going on. Duncan plays up against strong Western Conference opponents, which the Blazers happen to be. LMA is dealing with a thumb injury so I don’t expect him to challenge every shot.

Nicolas Batum | SF | DK: $5.3k | FD: $5.6k

Batum is the only reasonable safe play from Portland. Lillard and LMA are decent starts in their own respects, but I’ll be fading them. Kawhi Leonard is a good on ball defender but Batum gets his FP in many different ways. 

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. While you’re over there take a look at the SportingCharts Official Twitter as well. Come back tomorrow as I have analysis for you every single day. Cheers!

FanDuel is hosting their $400,000 Wednesday NBA Slam tournament where the winner takes home $50,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel! Use the following projections to build a winning lineup!

 



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