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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 26, 2015


You had a great night yesterday if you chose to play our optimal lineups. Our early FanDuel lineup finished with a score of 309.1 while our turbo lineup scored 300.1 – both of which would’ve landed you in the money in a ton of tournaments.

Not a lot going on tonight. If you’re entering tournaments be sure to have some crazy picks in there. A ton of players will be 40%+ owned tonight, so you’re looking for that one guy under 10% to really hit it big. Both games should be a lot of fun to watch!

Editors note: We just released two brand new tool for NBA daily fantasy. The NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker gives a complete breakdown of each player from a value perspective including averages, ranges, risks, and more! And the Defense vs. Position Report which details how each position stacks up against each NBA team.

FanDuel is hosting their $225,000 Thursday NBA Slam tournament where the winner takes home $25,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel! Use the following projections to build a winning lineup!

Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James | SF | DK: $10.3k | FD: $10.4k

I think tonight is a night where you want to pay up at SF. I just don’t see a ton of potential in many other guys at the position. LeBron could potentially outscore Curry and Westbrook tonight. He won’t have a ton of trouble with Harrison Barnes. Andrew Bogut could cause a few issues on drives but he won’t be getting a ton of playing time. LBJ should log 40 minutes or better tonight in possibly the Cavs’ toughest test yet. If we use his FDPPM (FanDuel Points Per Mintue) and apply that to 40 minutes, we can project him at 53 FP.

Stephen Curry | PG | DK: $9.8k | FD: $10.3k

You know he’ll be up for this potential NBA finals preview! He mentioned some soreness still in his foot after the Washington game, but he’ll be fine. He’s a competitor playing on the best team in the NBA. I don’t think he’s sitting this one out OR taking it lightly. Kyrie Irving’s defense has been better since James’ return, but it probably isn’t finely tuned enough to stop Steph. Curry is likely a lock for many of my lineups on DraftKings because of the price. I just find myself wanting LeBron, Curry AND Westbrook.

Kevin Love | PF | DK: $7.8k | FD: $8.3k

Not a huge fan of Love tonight but on such a small slate you’re not left with a ton of options. Obviously the best choice is going to be Serge Ibaka if you’re wanting to spend up at PF, but Love will be lower owned and has the ability to score very similarly. That makes him the perfect pivot. It doesn’t look like a great matchup as Draymond can play fairly good defense. His numbers from their last meeting are a bit inflated since LBJ was absent. Again, not my favorite play but I don’t think he’s terrible.

J.R. Smith | SG | DK: $5k | FD: $5.3k

I’m not expecting many people to be on J.R. tonight which is perfect. A fast-paced, high scoring game like this is poised to set him up for a huge night. I’m slightly worried about Klay’s defense but I think he’ll gravitate towards Irving a bit more tonight. If Smith gets hot he can flirt with 7-8x his salary and I certainly believe it’s possible tonight.

Andre Iguodala | SF | DK: $3.9k | FD: $4.5k

Steve Kerr stated to the media earlier that he planned on resting Iggy in the future. As playoffs draw nearer we’re going to see a lot more of this around the league. So given that expectation, I say cash in on Andre one last time before his value drops. He should get a decent run tonight as he’s a far better defender than Barnes. At his price you’re not asking for much so he’ll hit value pretty quickly.

Marreese Speights | PF | DK: $3.3k | FD: $4.1k

In addition to resting Iggy, Kerr also said that he’d like to give Andrew Bogut a breather as well. We don’t know if that will begin tonight, but if it does Speights becomes the primary beneficiary. He had a solid game against Washington but he’s largely scoring dependent. He’s cheap which negates the risk associated with his playing style, but I don’t think you want a ton of exposure here. 

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns

Russell Westbrook | PG | DK: $11.3k | FD: 11k

The Suns buffed up their backcourt defense with the trade for Brandon Knight, but it isn’t likely to slow Russ down. He’s been able to break the 50-pt mark in 4 of his last 5 games, the only slip up coming against the slow and boring Indiana Pacers. The Suns play at a much faster pace and their defense as a whole is tiers below the Pacers. What you’re getting in Westbrook in the highest floor of anyone on the night and quite possibly the highest ceiling as well. Durant is OUT…play Westbrook.

Serge Ibaka | PF | DK: $7.9k | FD: $7.2k

Ibaka’s price spike on DraftKings was a bit disappointing. It was necessary, but disappointing nonetheless. He’s been just as consistent as Westbrook, putting up 40+ on most nights out there. Markieff Morris can play some solid defense, but so can David West and Serge didn’t struggle there. In fact, he ended with one of his best shooting performances on the season. He should hit around 5x his salary, maybe a pinch higher.

Enes Kanter | C | DK: $5.9k | FD: $5.8k

The pace in this game will be fairly high which means a ton of rebounds coming down. Alex Len can’t step out and face up with Kanter, so he’ll be able to score quite well. I don’t expect him to return to the 40s, but lower 30s is reasonable.

P.J. Tucker | SF | DK: $5.4k | FD: $4.9k

Tucker, strangely enough, has been the most consistent player for the Suns since the All-Star Break. With Durant out he doesn’t have to worry himself about running all over the floor on defense. So that bodes well for his potential tonight. I like him to reach 6x and flirt with 7x, especially on FD.

Alex Len | C | DK: $4.9k | FD: $5k

Didn’t see a ton of minutes against Denver because they didn’t need him to. So he got some proper rest for tonight’s matchup. Kanter doesn’t play defense, so Len will be able to score quite easily although that isn’t his main strength. When he gets over 30 minutes of playing time he hits value nearly 100% of the time. I believe that happens tonight. I’m projecting  30-34 FP.

Mitch McGary | PF | DK: $3.9k | FD: $4k

He’s averaging 7x his salary since the break. He’s not just a rebounder, he can defend well too. Steals and blocks are a huge part of his game and those should come fairly easily against a careless Phoenix team. He’s not a lock by any means but I think we can expect another 6-8x salary night from him. With a lot of high priced guys you want to roster, he fits nicely into a lot of lineups.

FanDuel Projections

Player Pos Team Salary Ceiling Proj Floor Value
Russell Westbrook PG OKC 11000 66.75 49.58 32.42 4.508
Stephen Curry PG GS 10300 61.21 46.11 31.01 4.477
LeBron James SF CLE 10400 61.21 45.53 29.86 4.378
Serge Ibaka PF OKC 7200 50.40 37.72 25.05 5.239
Eric Bledsoe SG PHO 8400 52.48 36.88 21.29 4.391
Kevin Love PF CLE 8300 47.57 35.39 23.21 4.264
Klay Thompson SG GS 7100 50.46 34.97 19.48 4.926
Kyrie Irving PG CLE 8400 47.29 33.41 19.53 3.977
Draymond Green SF GS 6900 45.37 32.26 19.16 4.676
Brandon Knight PG PHO 7400 43.10 31.86 20.62 4.305
Markieff Morris PF PHO 6500 43.81 31.46 19.12 4.841
Alex Len C PHO 5000 42.78 28.02 13.27 5.605
Andre Iguodala SF GS 4500 35.01 25.04 15.07 5.565
Enes Kanter C OKC 5800 34.68 24.70 14.72 4.259
Timofey Mozgov C CLE 5800 34.61 24.20 13.80 4.173
J.R. Smith SG CLE 5300 34.29 23.21 12.12 4.378
Andrew Bogut C GS 5000 41.87 22.88 3.89 4.576
Dion Waiters SG OKC 4500 35.32 22.23 9.13 4.94
P.J. Tucker SF PHO 4900 33.29 22.08 10.88 4.507
Mitch McGary PF OKC 4000 38.22 21.41 4.61 5.354
Harrison Barnes SF GS 4300 27.44 20.27 13.09 4.713
David Lee PF GS 5300 26.28 19.81 13.35 3.738
D.J. Augustin PG OKC 7000 29.69 19.61 9.53 2.801
Marcus Morris PF PHO 3900 27.98 19.10 10.22 4.898
Tristan Thompson PF CLE 5000 27.85 18.66 9.47 3.732
Iman Shumpert SG CLE 4000 29.16 17.75 6.34 4.437
Brandan Wright C PHO 3600 25.92 17.47 9.01 4.852
Marreese Speights PF GS 4100 23.80 14.27 4.73 3.479
Gerald Green SF PHO 4000 22.00 13.36 4.72 3.340
Archie Goodwin PG PHO 3600 28.36 12.63 0.00 3.507
Anthony Morrow SG OKC 3700 20.18 12.59 5.00 3.403
Nick Collison PF OKC 3900 20.19 11.66 3.14 2.990
Shaun Livingston PG GS 3500 18.47 11.53 4.59 3.294
Leandro Barbosa SG GS 3500 19.69 11.50 3.31 3.286
Kyle Singler SF OKC 3500 17.58 10.40 3.22 2.971
Will Cherry PG CLE 3500 17.03 9.56 2.08 2.730
T.J. Warren SF PHO 3500 17.37 9.15 0.93 2.614
Andre Roberson SG OKC 3500 14.76 8.96 3.15 2.559
Matthew Dellavedova PG CLE 3500 14.36 8.88 3.40 2.537
Marcus Thornton SG PHO 3700 13.44 8.13 2.82 2.198
Kendrick Perkins C CLE 3500 13.52 7.72 1.93 2.206
James Jones SF CLE 3500 17.42 7.62 0.00 2.177
Festus Ezeli C GS 3500 10.42 6.62 2.82 1.891
Jeremy Lamb SF OKC 3500 10.48 4.87 0.00 1.391
Perry Jones III SF OKC 3500 7.95 4.08 0.20 1.165
John Salmons SF PHO 3500 7.06 3.46 0.00 0.988
Mike Miller SF CLE 3500 6.56 3.43 0.29 0.979
Brandon Rush SG GS 3500 7.26 3.37 0.00 0.963
Brendan Haywood C CLE 3500 6.63 3.17 0.00 0.906
Justin Holiday SF GS 3500 4.63 2.51 0.39 0.718
Joe Harris SG CLE 3500 7.13 2.37 0.00 0.677
Reggie Bullock SF PHO 3500 2.01 0.87 0.00 0.250
Anderson Varejao C CLE 4500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
A.J. Price PG CLE 3500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Shawn Marion SF CLE 3500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
James Michael McAdoo PF GS 3500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Ognjen Kuzmic C GS 3500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Kevin Durant SF OKC 10300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Steven Adams C OKC 4300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Steve Novak SF OKC 3500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Danny Granger SG PHO 3500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0


Optimal Lineup

Based on the above projections, here is the optimal lineup:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 At 2.18.11 PM

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. While you’re over there take a look at the SportingCharts Official Twitter as well. Come back tomorrow as I have analysis for you every single day. Cheers!

FanDuel is hosting their $225,000 Thursday NBA Slam tournament where the winner takes home $25,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel! Use the following projections to build a winning lineup!

 



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