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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 3, 2015


So this is what I’ve learned from my experiences with DFS. You can spend all day long analyzing matchups, breaking down box scores, creating projections, listening to podcasts, reading picks and talking with other folks…then you have to throw it all away because of a late scratch. The guys that can quickly pivot from one player to another or change their lineups around this information end up being the most successful. You should always have a backup plan. Russell Westbrook should have been that backup plan for you last night.

He had a double-double at halftime and recorded a triple-double by the end of the 3rd quarter. It’s highly unlikely that you cashed in on many entries if he wasn’t on your roster. This is why it’s so important to stay on your toes guys. If you can’t stay glued to your phone or desktop for the 15 minutes prior to tip-off, you’re going to lose a lot of contests. Just as an example – I won 3 H2H contests last night solely because people kept Kevin Durant in their lineup. He was as high as 11% owned in some tournaments. If you stay on your game, you have a clear advantage over that 11%.

If you’re reading this I assume you’re a rather serious DFS player. You want to improve your game, increase your bankroll and develop some success. The first step to doing so is dedicating as much time as you can towards this hobby. You need all of these little advantages if you want to consistently cash in. A few months ago I would spend maybe 1-2 hours a day on DFS and my ROI was maybe 5% a month. Now I spend anywhere from 6-10 hours a day studying this game and my ROI is 44% over the last 2 weeks.

The DFS community is going to boom soon. That’s if we’re saying it isn’t already. With ESPN getting its toes wet, NOW is the time to become a shark. Start tuning your game and doing everything you can to improve. Before long you’ll find yourself raking in a ton of profit.

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Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Take

Avoid

Consider


The 76ers are worst in the league against the SG position. Afflalo hasn’t looked that great lately but the game log is a bit misleading. The Nuggets as a team played extremely poorly against both Memphis and Charlotte. As a result, Arron’s minutes dropped significantly. This game should be much closer so his minutes will climb back into the upper 30s.

Noel has done a great job lately at accumulating those oh so desirable peripheral stats. Steals and blocks are hard to come by for most players but not him. The Nuggets like to get the ball moving so I have him projected at 2 each, setting his floor fairly high.

His teammate Covington excels at doing the same. In fact, he stole the ball a total of 7 times last night which helped him put together the best game log of his career. The SF position can be barren at times so he deserves a look.

Nurkic can get into some quick foul trouble but he has every opportunity to hit value before that happens tonight. With the Nuggets frontcourt battling a few injuries he’ll get all of the action he can handle. I like his price.

Mbah a Moute can drain the 3 ball really well so that gives him a bump on DK. He’s a 5x5 guy like most of the Philly players. Again, SF is often weak, so if you want to spend low I would target a 76er.

MCW is doubtful to play as he left the game against the Cavs early last night. Even if he plays, he just doesn’t look the same. He’s taking fewer shots and just touching the ball less.

Faried hasn’t been worth his price for a while. If he plays he could be a crazy tournament play that might end up paying off, but I don’t think the reward is worth the risk.

With MCW doubtful, that could give Lawson an even better matchup. His price is still a little high but he should return to a normal amount of minutes. If you’re wanting to spend up on PG you should definitely look into him for your tournament lineups.

I’ll probably have some exposure to Chandler for GPP purposes. His price has dropped a little and this is the perfect game for him to put up one of his 30+ performances.

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

Take

Avoid

Consider


Boston won’t be able to slow down Melo. If you want to pay up for SF tonight I’m pretty sure he’s the guy that you want. Should be an up and down game and he’ll put up plenty of shots. Jae Crowder and Evan Turner stand no chance.

Smith is fairly consistent with decent enough upside for his price. He’ll be matched up with Sully or Bass and I’ll take that all day. Not a beautiful or sexy pick by any means, but he gets the job done. That’s the case with a lot of these Knicks.

Zeller is still getting additional time with Olynyk out. As long as Sully continues to throw fits, Zeller is a great punt at C. It’s a good matchup here as Jason Smith isn’t some prolific defender.

Amundson is extremely cheap and should get a good amount of work against Sully. He’s hit 7x+ on DK 4 games in a row, so I’m betting on 5. He’s going to be in a good majority of my lineups tonight.

Thornton gives Boston a bit of firepower off of the bench. Against the NY guards he’ll certainly be able to knock down some shots. I don’t like him a ton but if you’ve got some studs you want to fit in, he can get you 15-25 FP. At near minimum I’d be super happy with that.

Sully was supposed to take more shots. He didn’t. He was supposed to see more minutes. He hasn’t. Brad Stevens likes to mix up the rotation quite a bit. I’m not touching this guy with a 10 foot pole no matter how good the matchup may seem.

Hardaway is likely to get shut down by Bradley’s perimeter defense. With Melo on the court he’s going to see fewer shots anyways. I understand that he’s cheap I just think there are better options at SG.

Galloway’s price has gone up a bit but he’s still seeing 30+ minutes on the court. Against the Boston defense in a fast paced environment, I like his chances to hit 5x. With Melo out there his upside is a bit limited as he’ll take fewer shots, but you could do worse I guess.

Bass could see some additional usage if Sully continues to struggle out there. It’s a good matchup for him and his price seems to have leveled out for now.

Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons

Take

Consider


Hassanity! That’s the nickname it seems we have dubbed to Hassan Whiteside. Deservedly so as he’s a beast that appeared out of nowhere. His priced dropped back down a bit as he didn’t manage to reach 100 FP against Boston. This is another good matchup as the Detroit bigs struggle defensively. I do worry about how many rebounds he can fight them for. Foul trouble is also a valid concern, especially as his price rises, but there’s absolutely no way you can fade him.

Augustin jumped right back into it after having that stinker of a game before. This isn’t the best matchup on paper but with D Wade out, the perimeter defense isn’t as good as it once was. The Heat like to play half court so Detroit’s pace could jumble them up a bit. He’s not a lock by any means, especially not on FanDuel, but you should have some exposure to him.

KCP’s confidence should be through the roof after that last game right? Right? Well I hope so because I’m probably taking him in most of my lineups. The Heat are going to play Napier and Johnson at SG tonight. I’ll take that matchup all day long, especially with KCP poised to see 38+ minutes.

Johnson came out of nowhere against Boston and played really well. I guess it wasn’t really out of nowhere as he played 24 minutes against Dallas. I have him projected at 25 minutes here which is plenty of time for him to hit value. He has quick hands, he can rebound the ball, and obviously as a SG he’ll get some shots up.

I feel like Bosh should be playing a lot better with Wade out but that just isn’t the case. Whiteside has taken away a bit of his usage so his upside is quite a bit lower than we originally expected. Still, this is a great matchup and he’s going to play 35+ minutes. If he can start getting some peripheral stats he’d return to my lineups.

Drummond is a hard nut to crack. Will he go for 20 and 20 or will he foul out in the first half? We never know. The matchup looks good on paper but I expected Hassanity’s length to give him a good bit of trouble. He’s still a good tournament play given his enormous upside.

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Take

Consider


This is a big game so you know Cousins will be up for it. He has the highest upside of anyone on the night despite what the matchup may tell us. Bogut is the only guy that can even come close to handling him, but they won’t run him for more than 25 minutes.

It’s the return of the Klayster! So let’s be realistic here – he’s not going to drop 50 points. I have the O/U on points set at 30. I’m taking the over but only by the smallest of margins. Still, his price is solid enough that he makes a great tournament play. A floor of maybe 35 FP with 50 upside.

Rudy should draw Harrison Barnes tonight, a matchup that doesn’t particularly worry me. If Cousins gets into foul trouble or they decide to double team him, and I believe they will, that would open up Rudy for a ton of looks.

Curry gets one of the best matchups on the night. Collison isn’t a great defender. He uses his length to alter shots but Curry works best off of the pick-and-roll, something Darren never has figured out. I think he’s a bit expensive but I have his floor set at 40 FP so he won’t burn you too bad.

Draymond isn’t a great tournament play but he isn’t terrible for your cash games. He gets the job done in every category which sets his floor fairly high. Sacramento isn’t very good at PF so I like him to score 30-36 FP tonight.

Collison has been fairly quiet as of late. His 3 ball is looking good but he isn’t very active on the court. Cousins and Gay seem to have taken over most of the duties in that unit. He’s not a bad guy for tournaments if you want to sprinkle some exposure, but I’m likely looking elsewhere. 

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

Take

Avoid

Consider


Aldridge cooled off against the stingy defense of the Hawks. Favors, Kanter and Gobert can defend fairly well in their own right but they struggle when they’re pulled away from the basket. He should have no trouble backing them down and putting in 10+ shots.

Lillard gets a great matchup as neither Burke nor Exum can defend very well. I believe he’s still salty about the whole All-Star thing so I believe he could be one of the best tournament plays on the night.

The Jazz run their offense through Gordon Hayward. He not only scores, but he can rebound and pass as well. We saw all of that accumulate against the Warriors to give him his best game on the season. With Batum looking out of whack defensively, the matchup isn’t that bad.

Burke is getting his minutes back. His price has dropped low enough that we can begin to consider him for cash games. Given Portland’s recent inability to defend against PGs, I like him a lot tonight. There isn’t a ton of upside here but I have him hitting 5-6x.

Ingles has developed a seemingly consistent game as of late. He got into some early foul trouble against GS which kept him out a bit, but he still put up a decent log. He’s another good choice for cash lineups.

Favors gets a bad matchup here against LMA. He hasn’t really gone above 5x all that much lately as he’s sharing court time with Kanter and Gobert. There are plenty of good options at PF tonight, why take the chance here?

Robin Lopez is returning tonight for Portland. That changes Kaman’s minutes quite a bit – too much for me to feel comfortable with. I don’t like the thought of him up against Gobert either.

Matthews doesn’t really get a favorable matchup here, but gets the court time and FGA to make him worth the price. That being said, he’s not consistent enough for cash and his ceiling doesn’t seem to be high enough for tournaments. As long as Lillard and LMA are in the lineup with him, he won’t go beyond 6x.

I read a bit today about Batum’s success with the pick and roll around Robin Lopez. Given his return, I thought I’d consider it for a tournament lineup or two. His price is rather low now that he’s done next to nothing for the past couple of weeks. If his shot starts to go down we’re looking at 6-7x his salary in FP.

I know you’re probably asking, ‘Where’s Kanter? What about Gobert?’ Well they don’t make for terrible tournament plays but I don’t like their upside a lot. Hayward is getting a ton of usage lately. With Lopez and his defend returning tonight, their offensive upside is limited even further. 

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. Also don’t forget to come back tomorrow as I do this kind of analysis every single day. Cheers! 

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