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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 4, 2015


Another solid slate of games tonight with some interesting matchups and players to target in on for your daily fantasy lineups. Lets jump right into it...

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Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Take

Avoid

Consider


West is a great cash option as he hits around 5x his salary in nearly every game. His price won’t break the bank and he gets a great matchup here.

Augustin’s price shouldn’t rise even after another 50+ FP performance against Miami. I’ll admit that I didn’t see it coming – Miami’s decent perimeter defense and slow pace was expected to slow him down, but it obviously didn’t. He’s a lock for most lineups and I’m expecting around 50% exposure in tournaments.

KCP is getting a ton of minutes and shoots quite a bit as well. As long as his price is that cheap, the upside far outweighs the downside. He’s the perfect tournament play at SG.

Monroe isn’t a terrible play but there are far better options on this large of a slate. The Detroit offense is beginning to swing to the guards. His price is a bit high for what he’s doing lately and his interior partner, Drummond, caps his upside. Not to mention IND is good at defending this position.

Speaking of which, Drummond is another very good tournament play. I’m worried about foul trouble on both sides in this game, but he can still go for 20-20. The matchup isn’t the greatest but if he’s shown us anything it’s that we can’t predict his outcome.

Hibbert has…*gulp*…looked rather good lately and his numbers are showing consistency. 24 and 25 minutes in his last 4, 9-12 FGA and 5x salary or better in each contest. I like the matchup as well so he could be a decent tournament play. Not sure I’d trust him for cash lineups yet.

Miles is cheap and SF is always a difficult position to choose. It’s a great matchup so as long as he plays a full allotment of minutes, I like the upside. Low ownership is expected.

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors

Take

Consider


BKN isn’t very good at defending the SG position so DD makes a great pick here. He’s been shooting well lately and padding his stats with boards and assists.

Lopez has his best game on the season if not his career against Toronto a few days back. I don’t expect a repeat, likely not even close to the 60 burger he dropped, but 40 FP upside is certainly achievable.

Joe has been shooting very well in his last 3 games, right above 50%. His price actually dropped despite a few games over 5x value. I know that the matchup looks bad on paper, but Vasquez has been starting at SG for the Raptors lately. I like this one.

PPatt has been getting a few extra minutes off of the bench. He seems to enjoy being part of the second unit. His ability to stretch the floor and knock down shots beyond the arc help make him a good value on DK.

Lowry’s price has dropped low enough so we can now consider him. It’s a decent matchup as neither Jack nor D Will can defend very well, but Lowry just doesn’t touch the ball as much as he used to. I don’t like him a ton but you could toss him into a tourney lineup or two.

Jack’s value will certainly drop with D Will coming back. But he still saw 40 minutes against the Clippers with Williams logging 29. I didn’t get to watch the game but I assume they played D Will at SG and bumped Joe down to SF. So I still like JJ as he can easily hit 35+ FP, making him worth the price.

Valanciunas draws a good matchup here. He played well against Toronto a few nights ago. This is a tournament only consideration as he has the potential to disappear.

D Will’s price is quite low and I expect his ownership to be as well. If he does play some SG in addition to PG, he could rack up some serious stats in no time. Sneaky tournament play here. 

Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

Take

Avoid

  • ALL CHICKEN NUGGETS NOT NAMED CHANDLER

Consider


Yes, I know I said chicken nuggets. It’s a purposeful slight against that awful, terrible team. I thought about Afflalo and Nurkic as well but I just can’t, especially not with so many other games to choose from. The Nuggets are crumbling. They’ve lost the trust of their coach, their fan base, each other. Who know what the minute distribution will be moving forward.

Sully seems to fit in well with the new lineup. Maybe it was just the amazing matchup against the Knicks, but he looked really good. Guess what? This matchup is just as savory.

Chandler, as said above, is the only Nugget I’m considering. He has the chops for tournament play as he seems to be the only guy on that team still giving a hoot.

Bradley gets a good matchup against the defenseless Afflalo. Doesn’t seem like the injury to his non-shooting hand is affecting him at all.

Smart could get the start again. If he does, I like him at the price just like I did yesterday. I liked seeing this unit tonight and I like Stevens did as well. I hope he runs with it.

Bass also got the start which was a bit of a surprise, but it worked quite well. His price has leveled out so we can consider him for any format, but I feel like there are better options out there. His upside just doesn’t intrigue me all that much.

Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks

Take

Avoid

Consider


Horford had a tough time against NO but that was a fact for the entire ATL squad. It’s not a great matchup but he will take more than 9 shots in this one. I like him to return to 5x his salary so a good player for your cash lineups.

Teague gets a good matchup here. Wall’s defense has been tapering off as of late. I’m assuming his injuries really are beginning to catch up with him. Teague’s price has dropped low enough that he, too, could make a decent cash game play but I’d probably stick to tournaments.

Humphries has been solid for the Wizards off of the bench. This is a good matchup as he’ll either draw Millsap, Scott or Antic – none of which can defend very well.

Millsap’s price is a bit too high for me. The Washington interior defense is nothing to joke about so I don’t like his upside a ton. The pace for this game just doesn’t look good to me.

Korver draws the toughest matchup of the night as Beal is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Fading him everywhere.

Wall probably needs to rest, but I doubt he will. If he’s a go you can fire him up in a couple of tournaments. The Hawks have a weakness at the PG position, so although Wall performs better at home, he could hit 40+ here.

Beal is expected to pick up any of Wall’s slack if he needs to sit. This is a good matchup for him as he can shoot over Korver no problem. I like the upside, he becomes a virtual lock if Wall sits.

Chicago Bulls @ Houston Rockets

Take

Avoid

Consider


Gasol gets the holy grail of matchups here with Howard out of the picture. He should get a ton of looks, a ton of rebounds and of course a ton of minutes. There’s absolutely nothing you don’t like here.

Jimmy Minutes is certainly racking them up and I don’t think it’ll stop. Thibs will want him to stick on Harden like glue. With that much playing time, it’ll be hard for him to hit under value.

Noah gets the same matchup that Gasol does. I’m slightly concerned about his minutes but I highly doubt he’s pulled unless he’s screaming in pain. Could be a sneaky play especially on DK.

Smith is a good cash game option – forget his name and pay attention to what matters the most. It’s a good matchup and the Bulls turn the ball over a ton. He thrives in fast break situations.

DMo, Smoove’s partner in crime on the interior, is just as nice for cash lineups. He is, however, more dependent on scoring so if I had to choose between the two I’d take Smith.

Beverley’s price has dropped just a bit. With Rose’s tendency to lose the ball lately, I have him pegged for 2+ steals here. That’s a nice floor for such a cheap price.

Rose can’t even hit value when he plays 40+ minutes against a team that struggles to understand what defense means. I’m definitely not playing him against Beverley.

Harden is a little banged up but I think he’ll be good to go. Still, not a great matchup. I don’t think I’m going to spend up on any studs tonight – looks like you can build a 300+ lineup with 9k guys and lower.

Ariza isn’t a bad tournament play. I doubt many people will own him and he gets a good matchup. Singler, Tolliver, Jerekbo – none of those guys can stick with him.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks

Take

Consider


Wow….just, wow…is all I can say. You can make the queen of all punt lineups from this game alone. There is so much value to be had here that it’s ridiculous. I will likely have exposure to all of these guys tomorrow in one way or another, except maybe Clarkson and Bayless.

Knight, if he plays, is a lock for my cash lineup. He got a bit of rest and this is a fantastic matchup against the Lakers who are still experimenting with different starting lineups.

Giannis has done quite well recently given a steady flow of minutes. This is another good matchup coming his way so at the price, he could be a great addition to a lineup in any format.

Middleton seems to pop off when we least expect it. Obviously he’s a good play here as just about any Milwaukee Buck is. With Jordan Hill OUT and Middleton’s ability to play PF now, I like his upside a lot.

Henson is mainly worth a look IF Zaza and Ilyasova are ruled out. If they happen to be active I think you look elsewhere.

Boozer should get a few additional minutes with Hill out. If Ellington ever struggles to lead the team in scoring like he did against NY, Boozer will take over.

I don’t expect Ellington to miss as many shots as he did vs. NY but Giannis isn’t a slouch defender. His length and athleticism will give Ellington some trouble.

Clarkson’s matchup is trash if Knight plays. He deserves some exposure if Brandon sits though.

Dudley’s value, like Henson, is also quite reliant on the health of Zaza and Ilyasova, but he’s good for cash games if they’re out. Don’t think I’d start him over Middleton but if he fits into your lineup take him.

Bayless, to my surprise, didn’t get the start for Knight. I thought that was a bad move but I guess I’m not an NBA coach for a reason. He has decent upside tonight, but out of all the Bucks he’s probably 4th or 5th on my list.

Davis and Sacre are fantastic punts for PF and C. With Hill out they will see additional minutes and usage, so their price will rise soon. Get them while you can. Be sure to have lineups with each of them if you’re doing multiple entries. Bonus points if Zaza doesn’t play. 

Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Take

Avoid

Consider


Not a lot to love about this game, really. Of course Whiteside is going to be a staple in many of your lineups. The matchup is pretty good here but I do have a mild concern regarding foul trouble. Pekovic seems rather good at using his size to bully his way to the rim.

Martin is starting now and his minutes should gradually increase. He’s mostly reliant on scoring but he can rebound as well. His price is creeping up but for now it’s still reasonable.

Rubio is still on a minutes restriction so I don’t like him at the price.

Bosh had a fantastic night last night against the Pistons, but he scored 34 points in doing so. Not many assists or rebounds to tack on. I don’t put a ton of faith into performances like that.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans

Take

Consider


I really hope Durant plays. I like seeing Russ dominate the game as much as anyone but I want to see the Thunder make the playoffs. I want to see AD, Durant and WB all out on the court at once. Please! If he plays he slides under consider. It’s a good matchup and he’s below 10k!

Now let’s say he doesn’t play – obviously Russell is a great play again. You just can’t ignore what he’s done when KD sits out. That being said, a lot of his points come from layups and floaters inside. AD’s rim protection could negate some of that upside. So he’s definitely not a lock, but we have to have some exposure.

Davis seems to get up for big games which is why I’m hoping KD plays. If he does suit up, I actually like AD more. I think he puts up 52+ FP regardless, though.

Tyreke will have his work cut out for him against Westbrook. That being said, he’s been dishing out assists left and right lately. He won’t need to score all that much to hit value. Tournaments only.

Gordon doesn’t get a great matchup against Roberson but, like Tyreke, he can rebound and pass the ball as well. Not a fan for cash game purposes as his price has climbed a bit too high.

Ibaka gets a tough matchup with AD but he can spread the floor and drain the mid range jumper, all the way out to the perimeter. There’s not a ton of upside as he’ll probably struggle getting 15+ rebounds, but I wouldn’t mind having him in a lineup.

Waiters looks good if KD is out. I can see him starting at SF again which happens to be the easiest spot on the court for NO opponents. I don’t think I’m comfortable with 100% exposure, but I may split him across my tournaments. 

Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs

Take

Avoid

  • ALL ORLANDO MAGIC


Nope, no consider. You’re either taking Spurs starters or you’re not taking anyone. I really, really don’t like this game for a number of reasons. The Spurs are always prone to the Pop effect. That being said, it would only take 20-25 minutes of playing time for guys like Leonard , Duncan and Parker to hit value. Tobias Harris has ruined the value of guys like Payton, Oladipo and Vucevic. He just doesn’t allow the offense to run smoothly and he’s another liability on defense. I’m probably fading this game entirely (aside from maybe Parker).

O’Quinn looks to be getting more minutes lately. We should see him log another 24+ so at his price, given the matchup, he could certainly reach 20 FP.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz

Take

Avoid

Consider


Hayward has looked great lately. With Green starting for Memphis, this is a solid matchup. I don’t believe the O/U will be very high as both teams play slow and pride themselves on the defensive end. However, with the offense running through him first and foremost, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop 45 or so.

Gobert won’t see Gasol very much this game. I like his matchup against guys like Koufos. His ability to rack up steals and blocks is a nice little bonus.

Ingles should have a fun time against Courtney Lee. His price is still fairly reasonable considering he pops out 5-6x almost every night.

I realize my opinion on ZBo tonight is likely in the minority, but that price is just too high. He doesn’t make a terrible cash game play, but his upside just doesn’t go beyond 6x and that’s max.

Conley is still working his way back into the normal rotation. He’s making good progress but he’s not there yet, his price is still too demanding.

Favors gets a good matchup as ZBo can slack off defensively at times. He’s played really well for the Jazz this season and lately he’s been rather consistent.

Burke is taking back his starting role. Not literally as Exum still starts, but he nearly doubled his minutes last night. He’s shooting better, playing better defense and looking for the open shot. This is a good matchup and I like the price a lot. Really not a bad guy for cash lineups. 

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

Take

Consider


Ellis doesn’t have the best matchup here as Klay is a pretty solid defender, but he’s getting more usage with Rondo sidelined. He may struggle to hit all of his shots but he can pull down boards and rack up assists fairly easily.

Parsons looked good in his return. He gets a decent matchup here against Harrison Barnes. His ability to score and rebound make him a good play, particularly in cash games, here tonight.

Aminu is still seeing playing time even with Parsons back. He has an uncanny knack for blocking shots. He can also spot up and knock down jumpers. You could do worse at his price and he’s blowout proof.

Barea should get the start again with Harris tending to an injury. He’s extremely cheap and the matchup isn’t terrible. At the pace this game will likely be played, I like him to flirt with 10x.

Curry won’t have any trouble with Harris or Barea. I just don’t know if I’m comfortable spending 10k for a likely 50 FP outcome.

Klay was off last night but he should return to form here. You’re going to have those slumps with shooters like this, you just have to brush it off and move forward. He will be in a few of my tournament lineups for sure.

Dirk will need to score to keep Dallas in this one. His signature fadeaway should cause a lot of trouble for Draymond, whose defense is primarily holding the block. I don’t mind him for cash games here but I think he’s better suited for tournaments. 

Thanks for reading, folks! A ton of games tonight. I rushed to get this out to you guys so if you spot any mistakes, feel free to point them out. Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. Also don’t forget to come back tomorrow as I do this kind of analysis every single day. Cheers!

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