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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 5, 2015


After last nights huge slate of games and big contests on FanDuel including a $600,000 monster we have a quieter slate of games tonight. Lets jump right into it...

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Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets

Take

Avoid

Consider


Charlotte has struggled to defend guards since Kemba’s injury. I’m waiting for the day when Wall’s injuries catch up to him, but we’ll have to consider him until then. It’s an away game which he is much worse in but he picked it up for Atlanta last night, a much better defensive team than Charlotte. On a small slate he’s one of your favorite guys to pay up for.

Beal has been shooting the wall tremendously as of late. He’s hit 7x, 6x and 5x in his last three games. That trend itself will not continue in that he will hit higher than 4x in this one. CHA struggles to defend shooting guards, and with Wall possibly seeing fewer minutes on the tail end of a back-to-back, he could pick up that slack.

MKG is a 5x5 guy, there isn’t a stat that he can’t produce. His athleticism and nose for the ball help him create turnovers and find loose balls. I expect him to play 34-38 minutes as long as Kemba is out. An aging Paul Pierce, despite having years of experience, can’t keep up with him.

Gortat’s price is the lowest we’ve seen all season I believe and we also saw some fire in him last night. He nearly dropped a double-double before fouling out. He should see a ton of minutes tonight as he’s the only Wizard that can size up with Al Jefferson.

I’m avoiding Cody Zeller with guys like Williams returning. MKG and Big Al are seeing a ton of usage. Throw in Washington’s interior defense and I’m just not a huge fan. His price has risen a bit too much and the games where he did so well, that FG% isn’t sustainable.

Big Al’s price is a little disconcerting but you have to consider him. Although I advocated playing Gortat, he fouls a lot, plays less than 30 minutes and hasn’t rebounded very well lately. So Jefferson could see a lot of upside and low ownership.

Hilario’s production has gone down. His knees seem to be getting the better of him, but this is a great matchup. His price won’t kill you and he has 30 FP upside.

Humphries is just like Nene, only he’s healthier and safer.

Roberts, alongside a couple others I’ll mention later, is a solid punt at PG or G today. I’m not huge on him – he doesn’t show a ton of upside and even at his price he struggles to hit 6x. 

Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Take

Consider


Barnes won’t be able to contain LBJ. He’s the most obvious play on the day, although you may choose to look elsewhere for SF as there’s some pretty good value.

Griffin gets a good matchup here – he also seems to play up against the bigger, badder competition. He’s not really suitable for cash games but I’ll have a decent amount of exposure to him in tournaments.

Paul’s price is the lowest we’ve seen in a long time. The O/U, pace, spread of this game make it very appetizing. Kyrie’s tendency to turn the ball over means CP3 will likely get 3+ steals in this one, a nice floor to help his value.

DJ favors the fast paced matchups. It’s where lob city happens in addition to a ton of missed shots. His price is still rather though given some of the game logs he’s achieved recently. If you don’t want to pay up for Cousins tonight then DJ could be your next best bet.

Crawford should draw the start again with Redick out. This means a ton of minutes and a ton of shots. At his price, he’s probably my favorite play at SG today. The matchup is juicy.

K-Love has actually stepped his game up a bit. The Clippers really don’t play great defense despite what you may see on paper. I’m slightly worried about Kevin, though, as much of his value comes from rebounds. LAC is very good at pulling those down as are Timo and LBJ. I just don’t see a ton of upside here unless he scores 30+, and that’s highly doubtful.

Timo is similar to Gortat – he will see upwards of 30 minutes because he’s the only guy that can matchup with DJ. I wouldn’t trust him a ton tonight, but you can consider him for a few tournaments.

Barnes is cheap enough that you can consider him. I’m likely looking elsewhere at SF, but he will be one of the lower owned guys on the night with 30 FP upside.

Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

Take

Avoid

Consider


There’s not a bad game on tonight’s slate. I love it! All of these games should be close and enjoyable to watch – lots of fantasy goodness tonight. You know Cousins is going to be the highest scoring player on the board. Dallas scores a lot which means they take a ton of shots. He’ll have to fight Chandler for the rebounds, but I think he wins that battle 9 times out of 10.

Collison should have no trouble with Barea or Harris. He’ll get to wherever he wants on the court. That means a ton of assists and a few three balls to tack on. I like his upside, and he’s a solid cash play.

Chandler had a ridiculous game last night vs. GS, largely due to his 1st quarter alone. The Mavericks looked phenomenal early on but then the splash brothers prevailed. Nonetheless, he’s still a very good option tonight. He’s the only guy to match up with Cousins so I’m projecting him at 34-38 minutes. Sacramento likes to pick up the pace and shoot a lot too, so his upside Is there in addition to a high floor. One of my favorite cash game centers tonight.

Parsons is getting it done out there. He’s rebounding, passing, defending, scoring – he’s looking good since his return. The matchup with Gay isn’t the best in the world but, at his price, he’ll get his.

Who did Klay Thompson score all of those points on again? Ellis isn’t the same kind of knock down shooter, he prefers to slash and get to the pain, but Sacramento isn’t a good rim protecting team. This is a sneaky good play for tournaments.

Barea is so cheap that he’ll hit value in 25 minutes of playing time, potentially less against this defense.

Aminu is getting solid minutes on the floor, often replacing the tired and old Dirk. His ability to block shots, create steals and fight for boards makes him one of the highest upside punts on the night. I played him in a ton of lineups last night and am very happy I did so.

Like I just mentioned, Dirk is getting old and shouldn’t see a ton of minutes in this one. Despite it being an amazing matchup, his upside just isn’t there anymore. I’d rather roster another PF – I’m not having any exposure to him tonight.

Rudy’s matchup isn’t great here. He gets a lot of points from rebounds and scoring. DMC and Chandler will hog the boards, Parsons and Aminu will keep him from scoring. I suggest you find another SF.

Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers

Take

Consider


Phoenix doesn’t defend well against guards and Lillard is on a roll. I have him pegged for about 45 FP tonight and I’ll gladly take that.

Matthews is a great cash game play. Bledsoe and Dragic, as mentioned above, tend to slack off defensively, so he can rain down threes. Really good on DraftKings.

IT has been amazing for the Suns off of the bench. Scoring and distributing has been his go to skillset, and he should have next to no trouble continuing that. Steve Blake is by no means a good defender.

Batum seems to like having RoLo back. Do you guys remember that crazy, out of nowhere 50 burger that Batum had a couple weeks back? It was against Phoenix. He’s my favorite tournament play on the night.

The PF position for both squads is rather good defensively. I have a gut feeling that LMA and Morris will be more concerned with scoring the ball than preventing the other from doing so. Then again, I could be way off, so tournaments only here.

Bledsoe popped off on Portland in their last meeting for over 60 points on DraftKings, despite solid defense from Wes Matthews. He has the potential to do that on any given night, so have some exposure to him in your tournament games.

Lopez is cheap, there’s a good matchup at hand and he’ll flirt with 30 minutes in a fast paced, high scoring affair. Yeah that’s not too bad, is it?

Personally I’m fading Tucker because there are far too many options at SF tonight, but he’ll certainly (like Barnes) be near the bottom in terms of ownership. 

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. Also don’t forget to come back tomorrow as I do this kind of analysis every single day. Cheers!

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