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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - February 9, 2015


Decent slate in the making for tonight so let’s just jump right into it!

NOTE: we just released a brand new tool for NBA daily fantasy which gives a complete breakdown of each player from a value perspective including averages, ranges, risks, and more! Check it out our NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker!

Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers

Take

Avoid

Consider

Draymond is one of my favorite plays on the night. He’s projected to get about 34 minutes of playing time against the 76ers, a team that is still not quite there yet defensively. They’ve improved, however, so we can’t lock in their opponents any longer. Still, Green has been absolutely killing it. His rebounds have shot up in the past two games. Against a poor shooting team like Philly and with the pace this is projected to be played at, he’s almost a lock for a double-double. His floor is high enough that he won’t burn you.

Mbah a Moute has been getting a solid 32-34 minutes in a game in the past two weeks. He doesn’t have huge ceiling but he will almost certainly get you 5x at his salary with 7x upside. I like to take guys that will get guaranteed minutes even in blowouts. It’s a bonus that GS plays faster than anyone in the NBA. More possessions = more points.

I just can’t get behind Steph’s price. On a slate like this it’s hard to take someone like him with so much value available. Obviously there’s the argument that “before GS can sit him, they have to get a 15+ pt lead. So how’d they get there?” Well, against a team like Philly, they could’ve gotten those points from any guy on the court. Given his underwhelming performance against NY, I don’t trust him to hit value. We can take some good from this though – his price is going to drop.

So Noel’s price isn’t going to kill you, but why take him when there are so many other options? His upside is severely capped with Bogut guarding the rim. Draymond’s newfound rebounding prowess won’t help much either. Golden State doesn’t give up many steals or blocks, so I think you’re chasing points here.

Covington, like Mbah a Moute, is getting 30+ minutes a game. Draymond can defend well in the post, but Covington’s points come from jumpers or drives. His price has risen significantly but he’s still Philly’s leading scorer without MCW on the floor. Even if MCW suits up, I don’t mind Covington.

Speaking of MCW I suppose I should have mentioned him but I just don’t like him a ton. Even if he plays he’ll be somewhat hobbled and likely limited. Steph and Klay don’t play the best defense in the NBA but they don’t sit back and let the other guy score. Just not worth the risk.

Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards

Take

Avoid

Consider

This is the perfect matchup for Wall and it makes him the best PG on the day in my book. Is he playing at home? Check. Is Orlando’s defensive horribly horrible? Check. Are they even worse than horrible against PGs? Check. Is Bradley Beal questionable? Check. What’s not to love here?

I don’t see Harris’ FG% being sustainable, but the usage is. He’s seen a couple of good matchups in a row so don’t go out expecting 7x from him again. Paul Pierce’s knees aren’t the best anymore but he knows what he’s doing. I’m expecting closer to 5x, but the upside is still there. It’s still a bit difficult to project Orlando players as they go through this coaching change.

Humphries continues to be a force off of the bench for Washington. He’s a well-rounded, fundamental player that pulls down boards and puts up points. His box score will rarely jump out at you, but he was 1 real point away from hitting 7x against Brooklyn. This matchup is even better.

I don’t trust Oladipo or his price away from home. If Beal plays that makes the matter even worse, capping his upside at 6x and his floor drops to 3x. I’m not touching those numbers with a ten foot pole. If Beal is out you can throw him into a tournament but even then I’d likely avoid him.

Vucevic, like Harris, has been met with 2 cupcake matchups in a row. This inflates his numbers a little bit as I don’t believe they’re sustainable, particularly not against Washington’s interior defense. Gortat and Hilario are tired, it’s obvious, but they still play tough nosed basketball. His usage is still ridiculously high though so there’s still potential for 5x.

Gortat, like Humphries, isn’t going to jump out at you. That’s often good though, especially when considering players for tournaments. This is a good matchup for him and he was able to hit 4.5x in just 17 minutes against BKN, 11 minutes lower than his season average.

San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers

The All-Star break is approaching so I’d be surprised if we saw any precautionary DNPs, but keep an eye out just in case. Both teams are on the tail end of a back to back.

Just not a fan of this game in the least. This should be a low scoring affair, potentially ending the 80s on both sides. I’m not one to advocate spending up on guys involved in such fruitless games. I’d maybe consider Luis Scola as a flyer given his great performance last night. Danny Green is the only Spur I’d even consider.

I suggest you look elsewhere.

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

Take

Consider


This is poised to be another low-scoring, ugly affair. It’s really difficult to pinpoint where the value is going to be in games like this one. We’re moving forward assuming Hassan Whiteside is OUT. If fortune changes and he happens to play then he’s a lock for me in most lineups.

Bosh’s price has plummeted in the past couple of weeks. With Whiteside in the game he simply can’t get enough stats to hit value, particularly rebounds. NY has awful interior defense and none of them are superior rebounders. Bosh, at home, has the potential to hit 6x his salary tonight.

Melo should suit up in this one but monitor news hits just in case. The matchup doesn’t seem very good on paper, but he has great history against Miami. Despite Luol Deng’s defense, he was able to hit 6x in their last meeting. He’s putting up a ton of shots so if they fall you’re going to be sad you didn’t take him.

Andersen will see additional minutes with Whiteside unavailable. He isn’t going to go 20 and 20, but at near minimum price, he can reach 7x fairly easily.

Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Take

Consider

Horford matches up well with Dieng inside. The Timberwolves are far worse competition than the Warriors or Grizzlies, so he should return to form. I don’t mind him for cash games although his salary makes him less than optimal.

Thad has plateaued a bit recently but he’s still worth a look. He’s back at PF after getting a run at SF, but his minutes have stayed around the 38-40 mark. Millsap isn’t a very good defender – he’s allow Greg Monroe and Draymond Green to have some of their best games on the season.

K Mart’s price has risen but he’s returned to his role as the primary scorer for the T-Wolves. With his potential to put up 20+ shots a game and Korver’s inability to defend jump shooters, it looks to be a good night for him. Nice tournament play.

Teague is an interesting option but he won’t jump off of the page. His floor is high enough that he won’t burn you on a bad night but his usage always has him poised for a big game. Rubio is slated to start tonight with LaVine and Mo backing him up. Nobody in that backcourt worries me.

Since Rubio will be starting after a few days rest I like him quite a bit. His price on FD is a bit rich for my taste but he’s a perfectly fine choice on DK. Against Atlanta his upside is somewhat limited, but he should see near 30 minutes tonight. In that amount of time as long as he can get some shots to drop, he should easily hit 6x.

The news will be released later today so monitor it closely, but Dieng should return to the starting rotation if Pekovic is a DNP. The matchup is less than favorable but his price has dipped significantly with the return of Pek. He should log around 30 minutes in this one. If the T-Wolves keep it close, Dieng could be one of the best values on the night.

Muhammad could be the steal of the night on DK. It’s obviously very hard to project him as we aren’t sure what kind of playing time Flip Saunders will give him. I would guess he’d come off of the bench which would be good for him as he’d be the primary scorer in the second unit. 15-20 minutes is fairly reasonable. Given his talent and athleticism, even with this much uncertainty, it’s very possible that he hits 5-7x tonight. There’s a ton of risk here but that payoff could be quite significant.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Take

Avoid

Consider


Knight has been on a tear lately and his price hasn’t risen enough to accommodate for it. He’s a great cash play but with Zaza potentially returning and some other guys getting healthier we may want to practice a bit of caution with anyone from MIL here.

Giannis is seeing work all over the court. Kidd even ran him a bit at C and that seemed to work great. He really is the Greek freak, so much athleticism and talent. His price is a bit high now but he’s worth rostering in a tournament.

I’ll probably run both Zaza and Shabazz in a tournament lineup tonight. Or two…that’s if they both play, of course. It could come back and bite me but how are we supposed to ignore this? Both guys could put up 25+ points even in limited minutes. So that’s potentially 50 FP for $6k of your total salary. I’ll take it!

Middleton is going to see fewer minutes and far less usage with Zaza returning. Ilyasova is already hurting his value and the additional attention on Giannis doesn’t help either. The fact that he’s a SG on DK kind of eliminates any chance of me taking him tonight as there are far too many options there with more upside.

D Will won’t see a ton of Knight if any at all. He’ll get Bayless who is a decent defender in his own, but the second unit rides the bench for a reason. I don’t mind him in cash games although he’s not really on my radar tonight.

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans

I’m basing my analysis on the assumption that Anthony Davis doesn’t suit up tonight. I don’t see a ton of reasons for them not to rest him through the All-Star break. I get that they’re fighting for their lives in the West, but precaution is likely the best road to take here. If he does end up playing it’ll bump down Gordon, Anderson and Ajinca.

Take

Consider


Evans has been playing extremely well as of late. It’ll be interesting to see what he can do without Davis on the floor. It reduces spacing so he’ll rely on Gordon and Anderson to knock down their shots. Against the likes of Exum and Burke, though, I don’t see him having much trouble. It’s interesting that DK changed his position to PG. This mixes things up a bit.

Hayward is having a great season. With the Jazz on the road and the Pelicans without their huge rim protector, he’s poised to have a great game. NO will likely run Cunningham or Pondexter on him, neither of which are very worrisome.

Favors is the biggest beneficiary on the Jazz from AD’s injury. All of the rebounds and scoring opportunities go to him now. He’s been playing quite well even though he’s sharing floor time with Kanter and Gobert. He’s quite cheap considering his upside.

Ajinca should get 25-30 minutes in this one as long as it stays close. Even against the likes of Favors and Gobert, that’s enough time for him to hit 7-8x his salary.

Kanter could have a bit of trouble with Ajinca’s length, but his ability to step out and knock down jumpers is what earns him this spot. That skill gives him 40 FP upside just about every time. It’s the rotation that gives him such a low floor.

Someone will need to step up to account for the loss of AD. In the past that’s been Eric Gordon. He’s had a rough couple of games lately but it’s largely in part to a low usage rate and bad matchups. He gets a good matchup here and should touch the ball more – a very good low owned option tonight.

Anderson is similar to Gordon but he’s more valuable on DK. The matchup isn’t great but I wouldn’t mind him in a lineup or two.

I have a gut feeling that Gobert will see additional time in this one as he matches up with Ajinca better than Kanter. I could see Favors sliding over to Asik. His floor is extremely worrisome but his ability to stack up on peripherals, especially against a turnover prone team like NO, is what makes him such a good tournament play.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

Take

Consider

CP3 is a near lock for me tonight. His usage rate is going through the roof without Griffin in the lineup. He’s the primary scorer, ball handler and even rebounder now. Okay that last one not so much but the potential is there. Barea and Harris can’t handle him.

Ellis gets a good matchup here against Crawford. Even without Blake, the Clippers are still a good offensive team. He’ll need to match them to leads the Mavs to a win.

Parsons plays much better at home than he does on the road. Matt Barnes is not a good defender. This has 5x+ written all over it.

Crawford will take some additional scoring responsibilities with Griffin out. He’ll also see more minutes with Redick not playing. Against Ellis, it should be a nice game for him.

Barea doesn’t get a great matchup here against CP3 but he doesn’t need to score a ton. He’ll hit value by getting assists and rebounds.

Dirk will likely draw Hawes if he starts again. The size is a bit worrisome but he isn’t as physical as Blake. The price isn’t terrible but there’s not a ton of upside.

Barnes, like Crawford, will be asked to score more tonight. Parsons can defend quite well but Barnes’ price won’t burn you. It’s a nice SF punt.

Harris is a better scorer than Barea, but I don’t think Dallas has any trouble putting the ball in the hoop. I doubt he has another 35 FP outing, but he’s a better tournament play than Barea.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets

Take

Consider


Durant is still rather cheap on DK. The Nuggets haven’t been playing defense lately which makes it all too easy for KD. In a close game he’ll probably see 35-38 minutes, plenty of time to flirt with 6x his salary.

Nuggets forwards are absolutely terrible defensively. Aside from Faried, they’re pretty bad rebounders as well. This should make Ibaka’s job easy. The price is a bit high after his crazy good games when KD was out, but it’s not unlikely that we see 5-6x from him.

Chandler is getting the usage and minutes that he needs to be a good tournament play. KD’s defense has come into question because of his injury. SF is fairly week in the mid tier of prices, so he doesn’t make a terrible choice.

McGary is a riskier play but not all that crazy at minimum price. Perkins should return tonight but with Adams out he’s still going to see 20+ minutes. He could see even more if the staff like him over Kendrick. He had a good game against the Clippers, I see no reason to ignore him.

Westbrook is always up for consideration. With the Nuggets terrible defense he could easily drop another 60+, but you’re risking a lot when you spend over $11k.

Lawson, if Nelson is ruled out again, will get around 40 minutes of playing time. Even against Russ, who’s playing out of mind right now, that’s enough for him to hit 5x value.

Nurkic is getting a few more minutes lately. It’s been very difficult to project his playing time so I’ll refrain from doing so again, but this is a good matchup for him. Perkins fouls often and McGary is new to the scene. He has one of the highest FP/min averages in the league, so I like him to hit around 6x. 

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. I run a contest every single night around 6 P.M. EST for a $2 GPP entry. It’s free money, so why not try it out? All I ask is that you follow me and @SportingCharts before you accept the prize. Also don’t forget to come back tomorrow as I do this kind of analysis every single day. Cheers!

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