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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - January 28, 2015


The chaos continued yesterday with even more late scratches and injuries to build around. If you managed to miss all of the land mines you probably found yourself winning some cash, because there were a ton of them. I know Andrew Bogut was over 40% owned in many of my 50/50s. There are certain things in DFS that you just can’t account for. The best thing to do is suck it up and forget about it.

It’s important to have a short memory for things like that. After Chandler Parsons had his dud of a game on Sunday, a ton of people were quick to fade him last night. That game was an obvious anomaly amidst an otherwise solid game log. He returned tonight and hit near 5X his salary. Plenty of people dismissed JR Smith after he barely hit double digits against Sacramento. Then he popped off for over 40 FP in his next game against Phoenix. I’ll admit that I tended to do this when I first began playing. It’s a terrible quality to have if you want to be successful in this game.

There’s a difference between being cautious and being ignorant. Don’t be ignorant.

Huge slate of games tonight so let’s not waste any more time.

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Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

Take

Avoid

  • Nobody

Consider

Augustin is practically a lock for cash games. He’s logged two great performances in a row and he gets a great matchup here. His price will probably continue to rise so you should cash in until then.

Noel has been tasked with defending/attacking Marc Gasol and Anthony Davis in his past two games. His game logs may look a bit nasty for that reason. He gets a much better look here against Drummond and Monroe. I like him to return to 25+ FP, making him well worth the price.

Tolliver has been seeing additional minutes as of late and he’s done quite well with them. His performance last night solidified his place in the rotation. He’s now a solid punt in any format although I would monitor his minutes given his age. Oh, he’s only 29? Dude looks like a mummy.

Monroe and Drummond are a peculiar couple. If they stiffened up on the defensive side of the ball they would rival Gasol and ZBo for best frontcourt in the NBA. That just isn’t the case though. Both of them get good matchups here. I still like Monroe for cash games despite watching him hit below value last night. Drummond is a better GPP play. He finds a way to disappear on certain nights. Against the 76ers you would expect him to have a season best performance, but tread carefully.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Take

Avoid

Consider

You just can’t argue against LBJ at this point. He’s hit a 50 burger on DK in 4 straight games which makes 8 out of his last 10. Obviously if Batum plays he’ll have the duty of guarding him instead of Matthews or Dorell Wright, but if anyone is matchup proof it’s The King.

Lillard, along with the rest of the Portland squad, has had a few days to rest. Kyrie has been playing better defense since LeBron’s return but there are still holes in it. I like him more on DK with the 3pt shot bonus, however he should be a fine option anywhere. You may want to be cautious when deploying him in cash games as he has a tendency to hit around 4X his salary. The upside is what I’m excited about.

Matthews should make a perfect cash play. His minutes are consistent, sitting right at 35 a game. He’s done a fine job at scoring but he also rebounds and gets a few steals each game.

Thompson just isn’t getting the usage or minutes with Moz and Love controlling the frontcourt. He’s looked a bit better recently but his price is still too high. I’m not really looking at him.

Even if Batum plays, I’m likely fading him. His price has dropped to a reasonable amount IF he were healthy and consistent, but he’s neither of those.

I’m anxious to hear what a few other guys have to say regarding LMA. I’m hesitant to push for him until I see another game or two with that splint. This is a good matchup for him but I’m afraid that his ceiling is right around 5X which isn’t very desirable given how expensive he is.

Irving had a huge game last night and that’s really what brought him here. Before that performance he had hit right around 4X 3 games in a row. That’s not very enticing. Portland doesn’t do a great job against opposing PGs, but they are well rested as opposed to the Cavs playing their second of a back-to-back. I’m personally looking elsewhere for a PG but you could make a case for him.

Kaman gets a nice matchup here as the Cavs are still allowing tons of FP to centers, even with Mozgov. He’s cheap enough that you can bet on him hitting right around 5X his salary.

Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors

Take

Avoid

  • Nobody

Consider

Cousins is my lock for the night. Toronto is terrible against opposing centers and they just played last night. Sacramento, like a few other teams, has been able to rest since at least Sunday. He will surely beast tonight and I’m going to take advantage of that.

Rudy has been on quite a tear. I like him a lot because he gets the job done across the board – rebounding, assisting and scoring. Those peripherals give him a nice floor so he’s good for any format.

Collison typically doesn’t have a ton of upside but I believe he does this game. He’s hit 4.5X his salary in 9 out of his last 10 games. The pace and O/U for this game will definitely be desirable and he’s the most consistent PG on the board for $7k. I like him in cash games a lot and will consider him for GPP.

Lou Williams is a cash game gold mine here. Patterson has been earning a few extra minutes lately and he gets a good matchup here. I like him to continue hitting 5X+.

Not a huge fan of Lowry in this one but everything favors him. As you’ve likely heard already, his usage dropped significantly when DeRozan returned to the lineup. For this reason I am likely avoiding him but I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t say that he’s a great GPP play. High upside, likely low ownership.

DeRozan is the type of player I typically don’t roster. He is heavily reliant on one thing – shooting. When he’s on he’s on but when he’s off he struggles to score FP elsewhere. He gets a good matchup here but he’s GPP only material.

Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks

Take

Avoid

  • Nearly everyone. I’ll explain below.

Consider

Horford is the only guy in this entire game that I trust for cash games and even then I’m probably looking elsewhere. He’s hit around 5X in his past 9 games so he’s hard to ignore.

Jack still has a bit of value left as Deron Williams continues to be sidelined. He’ll have his work cut out for him in this one. Atlanta’s perimeter defense, specifically that of Jeff Teague’s, is by no means impenetrable. I don’t like him all that much on FD but over on DK he’s reasonable.

The line on this game is just ridiculous. Brooklyn is playing terribly as of late and the Hawks have the best defense in the NBA. The game being in Atlanta doesn’t make it any better. If you want to take a flyer on a bench guy like Mike Scott, Dennis Schroder or Pero Antic then be my guest.

Millsap has had a couple of solid recent games. He’s starting to drain some 3 balls so take a look at him over on DK. Again, not trusting anyone but Horford for cash games here but GPP is fine.

Joe has been battling some soreness in his knee. He’s had some time off so hopefully he’s feeling better. With the brief rumors surrounding him about a possible trade for Lance Stephenson, I wouldn’t be surprised if he went out tonight and gave it his all. Then again he may not care and choose to be lethargic. 

Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Take

Avoid

Consider

Deng should start at PF which gives him a good matchup against Sully as he has the length and quickness to get around him. He’s done a good job lately of passing the ball. With Mo questionable, he could take on some additional distributing responsibilities.

Thad moved to SF which means he lines up across from Evan Turner, whose defense is rather bad. He’s hit value as of late and I look for that to continue.

Bass’ price rose a bit after he logged a few impressive performances. With Olynyk still out he should continue to see around 30 minutes. That means he’s still worth a look in any format.

Pekovic is a target for me on DK, I feel like his FD price is still a bit unrealistic. He gets a fantastic matchup here against Tyler Zeller. His minutes have increased since his return. If he logs around 30 minutes, and I think that’s certainly possible, he will certainly hit 4X his salary with 7X upside.

Zeller is going to get more minutes here. Not a terrible matchup as Nikola prides himself on the offensive end, not defensively. With Dieng sliding over to PF he is a nice punt at C if you’re so inclined.

Wiggins is still too pricey for me and I don’t like the thought of Avery Bradley guarding him. Mo Williams is questionable but I’m not so sure he hits value even if he plays. The Boston backcourt is rather strong defensively.

Sully’s matchup scares me a bit. Dieng’s length could certainly send a few of his shots back. He’ll need to use his body to get inside and score. That brings up the concern of fatigue. GPP only.

Bradley is a nice punt at SG as Minnesota has one of the worst perimeter defenses in the NBA. He went out and scored nearly 40 FP in their last meeting. LaVine is definitely up for consideration is Williams is out. Just keep in mind that Boston will limit his upside. But he’s only $3k, so 5 assists, a few rebounds and a basket or two will get him to value.

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

Take

Avoid

Consider

Harden has 4 straight games with over 50 FP, two of them over 60. That’s a phenomenal feat that few, if any, others could achieve. He gets a good matchup here against Ellis in a rivalry. If you want to pay up do it here.

Dirk isn’t the sexiest option here but he typically gets 25-35 FP. I like his matchup here with DMo. He isn’t a guy I like to roster very often but he’s not a bad cash play.

Beverley gets a good matchup here. He’s still fairly cheap so if you’re looking for 25-30 FP you can feel safe taking him. DMo is very similar to Beverley in that he’s a no nonsense guy that gets you FP every time you send him out.

D12 is questionable and Smith is not smoove at all. I don’t want anything to do with either of them.

Ellis could find himself in a shooting battle with Harden. Although he’s likely to lose, that could help him hit value. I like him a lot more in GPP over cash and DK over FD.

Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans

Take

Avoid

Consider

Davis should have a lot of fun in this one. The Nuggets like to run and tend to get a bit chaotic at times. That’s a perfect formula for a guy that thrives off of blocks and steals. He won’t have an issue with Nurkic, Hickson or Faried.

Evans gets a good matchup here. If he’s taking PG duties he gets Lawson, else he’ll get Chandler. That’s a win-win. He didn’t see as many minutes against Philly as his usual run because NO didn’t need him to. He’ll return to 35+ here and hit around 5X value, maybe higher.

Afflalo has been shooting well as of late and he’s done a good job of passing the ball as well. I think that continues tonight. The game being in Denver will help him and he can shoot over Gordon no problem.

Chandler is a great GPP play. I’m waiting on him to come back to Earth but I think you’re okay to take the chance here. He’ll likely be defended by Dante Cunningham with Evans sliding over from time to time.

Gordon is getting more usage with Holiday out, just like Tyreke. His price went up quite a bit but I like the matchup. Afflalo doesn’t defend particularly well and NO will need its shooters to keep this one close. Not the best option here, but he has a floor around 25 with 40 FP upside.

Faried will not be able to handle AD for the few minutes that he’s in this game.

Lawson could be a decent GPP option. He’s playing at home so that naturally gives him a couple extra FP. The matchup isn’t terrible as Evans won’t play all 48 minutes and he won’t stick at the point.

Anderson’s value is fairly reliant on his ability to knock down the trey. I think he can stretch the floor here with Hickson or Faried likely guarding him. Not a huge fan since there’s so much value at PF but it’s not terrible.

Asik is the blandest option on the board. He’s sort of up and down which is strange given he specializes in rebounding, which should come often. I’m not rostering him but he’s not a bad cash play if you’re leaning that way.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks

Take

Avoid

Consider

  • Everyone else.

This is the Knicks. I expect them to be more competitive than the line tells us. Melo will find a way. So you’re going to want to start KD and Westbrook. KD got to rest Monday so he’s a go

Melo has been solid since his return. He, like Durant, has had some time to rest. It’s a great day for small forwards. I’m looking at Melo for cash and GPP alike. Having a bit of trouble deciding between him and Gay for that slot but that’s none of your concern.

Ibaka has been a beast in his past three games. Three straight double-doubles, 19 rebounds against the T-Wolves. The Knicks aren’t a great shooting team either so I don’t expect him to slow down.

Galloway is still cheap. Don’t like him a ton against Westbrook but the price makes him worth a look.

Same story with Aldrich. The Knicks are healthy, he’s still expensive and it’s a bad matchup.

Dion Waiters and Tim Hardaway Jr. both deserve looks with Waiters being the better option I find. I just don’t see a lot of opportunity for Hardaway to score when Melo is on the court.

Jason Smith should see 25-30 minutes. Although the matchup doesn’t appear to be great, he’ll likely hit 4-6X his salary. Lance Thomas could be a decent GPP play but I’m not liking him a ton if Melo is active.

Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs

Take

Avoid

  • I’m fading every Spur I don’t otherwise mention.

Consider

Big Al is going to get some additional usage with Kemba out of the rotation. I absolutely hate his price on FD so he’s faded there but he’s very reasonable on DK. Like him mostly for GPP but cash doesn’t look terrible.

MKG doesn’t draw a great matchup but, like Big Al, his usage increases without Kemba. He’s a solid cash play with decent upside.

Roberts is going to see 35 minutes or so a game from here on out. It’s reported that Stephenson and Henderson could see some time at the point, but I think that quickly diminishes. There’s no way they’d win a game with Lance running point.

There are two things I hate in this world – Spiders and starting Spurs. Kawhi tweaked his ankle a bit but seems to be a go. Then again we can never really know. The matchup isn’t great with MKG across from him but he can rebound, pass and defend so he doesn’t need to score all that much.

Timmy had a good outing against Charlotte earlier in the year. I don’t look for him to have a repeat performance but you can fit him into a few GPP lineups I guess.

Parker actually isn’t all that terrible. He gets a great matchup here and he’s cheap so you’re not taking a huge risk. I like for him to hit 5X his salary before Pop pulls him.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz

Take

Avoid

Consider

Utah is starting to run their offense through Hayward, as they should! They’ll be smart to continue doing so tonight as the Clippers weakness lies in the SF position. Matt Barnes isn’t a great defender and he’s been having some trouble with his hand (and temper) lately. With all of the value at SF tonight it’s going to be a very difficult decision.

Paul will be lined up across from Dante Exum for the majority of this game. Yes please!

DJ’s price has skyrocketed given his recent games. I don’t like the matchup a whole lot here. He seems to do best in up tempo games and Utah doesn’t prefer that style. I doubt he hits 5X his salary. In fact, I believe he’ll struggle to hit 4X.

Burke’s minutes are beginning to go back up now that we’ve seen the Exum experiment crash and burn. Still, you don’t want to start him against CP3.

Griffin’s matchup isn’t the greatest here but he shouldn’t have much issues hitting that shot from the top of the post. I’m likely spending my money elsewhere but I could fit him into a GPP or two.

Gobert’s upside, in my opinion, outweighs that of Kanter’s in this matchup. His length and defensive prowess would be of more use here than Kanter’s mid-range shot.

Crawford has been great for the Clippers lately. At $5.2k I see no reason to throw him into a few lineups, cash games even.

Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns

Take

Avoid

  • Nobody, although I’m not a fan of the bigs in this one.

Consider

Just a week or so ago I was telling people to ignore John Wall in GPPs. His upside seemed to have disappeared as he was hitting below 5X salary in every game. It’s amazing the difference a week makes. He’s now had 4 incredible performances in a row. Keep an eye on his status but if he plays you’ll likely want to have him in a few lineups.

Dragic is more of a cash play than a GPP. Washington has given up a reasonable amount of FP to opposing PGs. I’m not buying that Wall is fatigued, but I am buying that Dragic can hit 5X his salary tonight.

IT2 has been wonderful off of the bench for the Suns. He’s netted them over 20 pts in 4 consecutive contests. He’s still cheap enough that you can rely on him to hit 5X. I like him more on DK than FD for the 3pt bonus.

Beal gets a good matchup here but I’m not a fan of his price. I know he can hit 4X no problem tonight but that’s not exactly desirable given this huge slate.

Nene has been one of the most consistent players for Washington. When he’s healthy and getting minutes he’s pulling down boards and putting up points. He doesn’t draw a great matchup here but it’s hard to ignore 5 consecutive 5X performances.

Len isn’t seeing many minutes anymore. If Wright is active for this game he’ll likely see even less. I’m not entirely sure why that is. His length and height gives him an advantage that few other teams have. I’m assuming he doesn’t have the stamina to log 30 minutes a night. This isn’t a great matchup but his price is okay. I’m fading him but he can still hit 5X with a few blocks.

So that just about does it. Thank you guys for reading and I appreciate all of the support. The DFS community is fantastic and I’ve had a lot of fun! Be sure to follow me on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_ where I answer questions and provide you with injury and value updates. Don’t forget to check back here before gametime. I’ll be sure to update some of these picks as we learn who’s going to be out on the court. 

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