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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - January 30, 2015


Today I’m just going to jump straight into the action. I’ll highlight some of my favorite plays from each game, so if you don’t see someone they’re a bit lower on the totem pole.

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Minnesota Timberwolves Philadelphia 76ers (O/U: 193, PHI 4.5)

Michael Carter-Williams (DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.5k)

Despite being kept to under 40 minutes for the past two weeks, MCW has had his fair share of 5x performances. Minnesota, especially if Mo Williams is out, will be susceptible to giving up FP at the PG position. There is a little bit of concern about Dieng’s presence inside given MCW’s tendency to drive the ball, but his usage is still through the roof and this games is at home.

Gorgui Dieng (DK: $7k | FD: $7.1k)

He’s going to start over Pekovic for the foreseeable future. It’s surprising to see him averaging over 35 minutes in most of his games. He’s going to get double digit rebounds, a few blocks, assists, pts, etc. he is very good at filling up multiple categories. The price is very reasonable given his upside.

Thaddeus Young (DK: $6.6k | FD: $6.8k)

His usage has spiked quite a bit. I think it’s going to drop with Kmart in the lineup but he’s likely going to get another 40 minute game. 40 minutes against the 76ers defense? Yes please! He takes plenty of shots, rebounds well and passes the ball too. I like this guy for a balanced cash LU.

Nerlens Noel (DK: $5k | FD: $5.7k)

The peripherals are fantastic here. Points, boards, steals, blocks and assists – he does it all. It remains to be seen whether he will start at C or stay at PF with Sims starting at C. Taking PF would be a much better matchup for him and his upside would spike quite a bit. I still like him regardless but monitor that starting lineup.

Kevin Martin (DK: $4.6k | FD: $6.5k)

Not buying him on FD tonight but he’s definitely up for grabs on DK. That price is phenomenal given his upside. He saw 29 minutes against Boston, guarded by Avery Bradley, and he dropped 6x. So we can feel comfortable saying he will get a solid 25 minutes with 32 minute upside. That means around 20 shots. So on sites without missed shot penalties, like DK, you want him.

Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics (O/U: 206.5, BOS 6)

James Harden (DK: $11k | FD: $11.2k)

Despite a disappointing performance against Dallas, Harden makes for one of the best plays on the board tonight. With Cousins, AD and LBJ all questionable or doubtful he’s one of the few studs you can pay up for. I have zero concern about Bradley’s defense for two reasons. The first being that this is James Harden – if anyone is matchup proof it’s him. Secondly, the rest of the Boston squad barring maybe Marcus Smart is awful defensively. HOU is only favored by 6 so he should get a full 35+ minutes.

Jared Sullinger (DK: $6.6k | FD: $6.7k)

With no Dwight Howard down low, Sully should be able to pull down boards all day. His price is low enough that you can afford his floor, with happens to be around 4x. He has 40FP upside in this one as I expect a fast paced, run-n-gun affair. 

Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks (O/U: 204, ATL -6.5)

LaMarcus Aldridge (DK: $9.5k | FD: $9.9k)

He’s probably going to get around 37 minutes of playing time. The Hawks have a pretty solid defense everywhere but PG and PF. Millsap and Teague are the two weak spots in the armor. He’s taken 22 and 23 shots respectively in his last 2 games. There’s a ton of upside here but be careful – after his game against Cleveland he’s likely to be highly owned.

Damian Lillard (DK: $8.8k | FD: $8.6k)

One of my favorite plays on the night right here. Cousins gets to replace Kobe at the All-Star game, snubbing Damian. I think that was the right decision but I’m sure he’s still fired up about it. It’s not a terrible matchup for him but I’m only considering him in GPP. If he misses too many shots, his floor drops way below his salary range.

Jeff Teague (DK: $7.6k | FD: $7.9k)

So we saw what Kyrie did to Lillard and the TrailBlazers, right? I don’t think Teague has the same level of usage or raw talent, but he’s certainly a good play at his price. He’s averaging right around 30 minutes a game and he draws the best matchup he’s had in a while. I like his floor to be right around 30 FP here so you can even consider him for cash games.

Paul Millsap (DK: $8.2k | FD: $8.4k)

He’s been on a roll! Three straight games at over 5x his salary. I look for that to stop soon. I’m not sure if it’s tonight, but it definitely could be. The Trailblazers give up fewer points to the PF position than any other spot on the floor. With LMA pulling him away from the rim, he may not be able to pull down 15 boards again. Be careful with this one.

Al Horford (DK: $7.6k | FD: $8.1k)

Great matchup here against Kaman. He’s just going to hit 5x value and we know it. Portland shoots the ball a ton so he’ll get plenty of boards. Perfect cash game play.

Dennis Schroder (DK: $3.3k | FD: $5k)

I’m liking him a ton of DK. Here are his last 5 games in FP: 18, 17, 25.5, 16.75, 16.75 – he’s averaging about 17 minutes a game in January and he gets the same matchup Teague does, if not better. At that price he’s a lock to hit 6x tonight.

Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers (O/U: 204.5, CLE -7)

Kyrie Irving (DK: $9.k | FD: $9.5k)

If James misses tonight, and I think he does, Irving will be the highest owned player on the board and rightfully so. His usage jumps to a crazy level as he becomes everything for the Cavs. I’m not sure that he’ll drop 60+ pts again but it’s not out of the question against this defense.

Rudy Gay (DK: $7.7k | FD: $7.8k)

Gay will also benefit is James is out. With Cousins questionable as well, this is a perfect scenario for him. He would become the primary scorer for the Kings and I’d expect him to play near 40 minutes. At his price I’m locking him in for 5x if both LBJ and Cousins are out.

Timofey Mozgov ($5.2k BOTH)

I’m only considering this play if Cousins doesn’t play. He will be able to bully everyone around down low and that would earn him 30+ minutes on the floor. He’s a double double machine when given matchups like this. 

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets (O/U: 197, BKN 7)

Jarret Jack (DK: $6.2k | FD: $7k) 

With Deron Williams still sidelined, Jack is poised to continue his lead role for the Nets. With the pace that the Raptors like to play with, there will be plenty of opportunities on both sides of the ball. I think Jack is the perfect target for tournaments as he’ll likely be low owned.

Jonas Valanciunas (DK: $5.8k | FD: $6k) 

The O/U on this game is surprisingly low, sitting at 197. That means there will be a ton of missed shots, most of them coming from Brooklyn. That plays right into Jonas’ wheelhouse. I like him a lot in tournaments, especially at his price. He has 7x upside tonight.

Lou Williams (DK: $4.7k | FD: $5.5k) 

After his huge performance against the Kings, it’s hard to ignore this guy tonight. I don’t think the coach will give him any additional playing time but he could very well continue his streak. FD reacted much more quickly, adjusting his price quite a bit. He’s still very reasonable on DK and the perfect SG punt for cash games. 

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat (O/U: 190.5, MIA 8.5)

Hassan Whiteside (DK: $6.4k | FD: $6.2k)

I really don’t like him a ton tonight but he’s still likely to hit value given his price. The truth is that, with his ability to block shots and create turnovers, we never really know when he’s going to go off. He could still record a double double without logging too many of those defensive stats and that’s what makes him so desirable, even in an unfavorable matchup.

I’m not really considering anyone else for this game. Bosh is a maybe and I guess you could look at Monta, but this will be a low scoring affair strongly in the favor of Dallas. I’m worried about a 20 point blowout.

Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 198.5, NO 6)

Blake Griffin (DK: $9.6k | FD: $9.7k)

This is the guy I want on my roster if AD is ruled out. There will be nobody to match up with him and nobody that can outrebound him, aside from maybe DJ and Asik. I’m slightly worried about a blowout but the LAC starting unit typically gets 30+ even in those games.

Tyreke Evans (DK: $7.9k | FD: $8.2k)

Doesn’t get a great matchup if AD is out. He’s the primary guy offensively next to Gordon and he’ll be tagged by CP3 for the better half of the game. However, his usage will skyrocket and he’ll take near 20 shots. He has a good amount of upside for GPP consideration.

Jamal Crawford ($5.3k BOTH)

I like him even if Redick plays. If Redick is out, however, he becomes a staple in every one of my lineups. Eric Gordon won’t be able to guard him and he’ll see a ton of playing time.

Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz (O/U: 205, UTA 10)

Klay Thompson (DK: $8.5k | $8.8k)

He’s on a hot streak right now and he doesn’t look to be slowing down. There are some downsides, however. The Jazz play slow ball – really slow ball, so he won’t get as many possessions. He’s also very expensive now after seeing a $1k+ rise in price.  Obviously there is a ton of upside here but I’d fade him in cash games.

Draymond Green (DK: $7.6k | FD: $7.3k)

His price is finally fair! Green makes for a perfect cash play tonight especially if Hayward is out. Obviously there is some concern about a blowout if that’s the case, but I’m still comfortable taking him. He’s one of my favorite players in DFS. He gets the job done everywhere. He’s not just a rebounder, a passer or scorer – he’s all of those things.

Joe Ingles (DK: $4.1k | FD: $4.3k)

He’s a smart, conservative guy. He isn’t very flashy but he’s very consistent. 30+ minutes a game and a higher usage rate with Hayward sick? I’ll take that, especially at this price. 

Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns (O/U: 211.5, PHO -7)

So this one is going to be a bit hard to predict. The O/U is currently at 211 with the Suns by 6. I highly, highly doubt that we see all of the Bulls’ starting five actually play. Butler and Rose are my main concerns here. Gasol and Noah will likely see fewer minutes. With that news, the chance of a blowout increases. It’s a field of land mines here in this one, so watch where you step.

Goran Dragic (DK: $6.4k | FD: $6.5k)

He’s a good bet to hit 5x tonight against this horrid Bulls defense that’s bound to be undermanned. He certainly isn’t one of my favorite plays tonight, but you could consider him in the larger 50/50s.

Taj Gibson ($5.9k BOTH)

Gibson is probably my lock for cash games tonight. He’s going to see an uptick in minutes and he’s already hitting around 5x value in every game.

Isaiah Thomas (DK: $5.4k | FD: $5.8k)

He’s poised for additional minutes tonight as I expect the Suns to earn and maintain a solid lead. He’s hit 5x+ in 5 straight games and I see no reason that stops tonight.

Aaron Brooks (DK: $3.8k | FD: $4.1k)

With Rose and Butler either OUT or seeing fewer minutes tonight, he’ll get near 30 himself. In games where he’s given that much time on the court he’s manage to average about 7x value. Against a weak perimeter defense in Phoenix he has a ton of upside. A solid choice for any format.

Good luck out there tonight everyone! I’ll do my best to update this post as injury news is presented. You can follow me on Twitter @Steven_Royalty_ if you want to get your DFS questions answered.

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