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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - March 01, 2015


A few disappointments last night, most of them coming from Detroit. They played horribly against Washington until the 4th quarter and a few of them managed to regain some value. The Atlanta Hawks chose to rest a few starters and choosing plays around that news became an integral part of lineup development. Guys like Dennis Schroder and Hassan Whiteside moved way up in my list and both finished quite well. I’m sure plenty of people flocked to Luol Deng with Carroll resting and rightfully so, but like KCP, he just didn’t pan out.

We have an unusually good slate for a Sunday afternoon and evening. Time to see what we can make of it!

Editors note: We just released two brand new tool for NBA daily fantasy. The NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker gives a complete breakdown of each player from a value perspective including averages, ranges, risks, and more! And the Defense vs. Position Report which details how each position stacks up against each NBA team.

FanDuel is hosting their $250,000 Sunday NBA Slam tournament where the winner takes home $20,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel! Use the following projections to build a winning lineup!

Los Angeles Clippers @ Chicago Bulls

Chris Paul | PG | DK: $9.9k | FD: $10k - He’s going to hit at or above 5x his salary. It’s that simple. Chicago’s perimeter defense is nonexistent at this point. It was hardly there when Rose was healthy and available but their lack of depth is certainly going to hurt their chance at winning games. CP3 is going to have a lot of fun in this one.

Pau Gasol | PF | DK: $9.7k | FD: $9.7k - He should be fine for today’s game. It seems that he and Taj Gibson are swapping roles now that Gibson is expected to miss. Pau was already unloading double-doubles like it was nothing. With a few extra minutes on his shoulder, against a Clippers team without Griffin, I expect nothing short of Barbara Walters status. For those of you unfamiliar with that term, I’m referring to Gasol’s potential to record 20 points and 20 rebounds in this game.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets

James Harden | SG | DK: $10.5k | FD: $10.8k - I don’t expect his phantom ankle injury to cause much harm and it shouldn’t prevent him from logging his usual allotment of minutes. Cleveland, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert in particular, don’t have very good perimeter defense. With Irving OUT for this contest that is all the more true. It also means that this game should be closer. Add that to Mozgov’s tendency to foul and Harden could head to the FT line more times than Cleveland would like.

LeBron James | SF | DK: $10.2k | FD: $10.9k - As you may notice there are a lot of high priced gentlemen that we’d like to take today. Sadly we can’t roster them all so it’ll be a crucial part of your process to select how much exposure you want for each player. If James is cleared to play, he’ll likely have more exposure for me than anyone not named Chris Paul. His usage will be ridiculously high without Chris Paul. Houston lacks a good rim protector, leaving LeBron every opportunity to score at will. Friday’s rest will only help him.

Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic

Nikola Vucevic | C | DK: $8.6k | FD: $8.6k - Big Al’s defense has left something to be desired this season. Charlotte’s wing defense is ridiculously good and that tends to limit opportunities for players elsewhere. Still, Vucevic has been overriding these bad matchups and delivering great performances. His price is a bit higher than I’d like but he’s certainly a good option at home.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | SF | DK: $5.8k | FD: $6k - In being as transparent as possible, I love seeing former Wildcats do well in the NBA. It seems that I’ve lucked out and have the ability to witness it on a near nightly basis. The Hornets are thankful to have MKG back in their rotation at full health. He’s a 5x5 guy that I’ve compared to Nicolas Batum, only leaps and bounds better defensively. Tobias Harris, on the other hand, lacks the same defensive prowess. MKG is relatively cheap and should hit 5-7x his salary.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics

Draymond Green | PF/Sf | DK: $6.8k | FD: $7.3k - I don’t see much merit in paying for Curry when CP3 is available for a similar price. Sure the matchup is good, but how much certainty is there in Steph’s playing time? Draymond typically finds himself on the court regardless of how the game is going. His versatility allows him to score FP in more ways than one. His price is also much more comforting than Steph’s as he’s hit over 6x his salary in his past two games.

Isaiah Thomas | PG | DK: $6k | FD: $6.4k - He’s lead the Celtics in scoring since joining them. It’s been a great addition for Boston and his price still hasn’t risen to meet his production level. Golden State’s backcourt defends rather well, but IT is still coming off of the bench so he avoids Klay and Steph. For the most part, that is. It will be a fast paced game which works right into his quick stop-and-pop style of shooting.

**Jae Crowder is another guy I really like…** 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers

George Hill | PG | DK: $5.8k | FD: $6.1k - Don’t roster him expecting another triple-double. Of course against Philly anything is possible, but I don’t think it’s fair to go in with expectations of that proportion. His value is heavily dependent on his ability to rack up assists. Given the lack of defense on the court for the 76ers, I don’t believe West, Hibbert, etc. will have trouble putting the ball in the basket.

Jason Richardson | SG | DK: $3.6k | FD: $4.1k - Philadelphia’s rotation is ever-changing and tends to stray far from the norm at times, but we do know that Indiana’s defensive weakness lies within Stuckey at the SG position. Richardson has found himself in a nice scoring role for this young team. He’s getting the minutes and should continue to do so. At his price, there’s not a ton to lose but 25-30 FP to gain.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings

LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | DK: $8.9k | FD: $9.5k - Up until his game against OKC I was wondering where his game had gone. OKC lacked a big body inside and SAC will too with Cousins likely OUT. Again, let’s temper our expectations here but I have LMA locked in with a double-double. If the Kings can keep it relatively close, and I think they can, he’ll get the minutes he needs to break 45 FP.

Jason Thompson | PF | DK: $4k | FD: $4.4k - This could make for a nice tandem at PF if you folks play on FanDuel. Thompson will get additional minutes, usage and opportunity with Cousins out. He’s done a great job at hitting 7x+ value when Boogie missed in the past. Aldridge’s defense is a cause for concern, but at his price, Thompson still makes for a solid pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

D.J. Augustin | PG | DK: $4.1k | FD: $6.7k - DraftKings and FanDuel are on opposite channels with this one. I’m not saying avoid DJ on FanDuel, but he’s definitely riskier. On DraftKings, however, he’s right up there with LeBron and CP3 in ownership for me. Westbrook, Durant and possibly Kanter will be out for this one. We all know the Lakers can’t defend so it’s perfect. Sort of seems like Augustin is a curse though. Guards drop like flies wherever he goes.

Ed Davis | PF | DK: $5.1k | FD: $6.2k - I want to target a big man for the Lakers and Davis is the best fit. Davis is the most consistent and trustworthy of that group. With so many young and inexperienced players taking the court in this one, there are going to be a ridiculous amount of missed shots. That sort of opportunity is difficult to ignore. His price on FD makes it difficult to fit him into my optimal lineups, but there are definitely ways to make it work. 

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

Tyreke Evans | PG | DK: $7.7k | FD: $8.4k - Denver’s defense is atrocious and they’ll likely play faster at home. Evans is still missing Anthony Davis but other guys like Gordon and Ajinca are stepping up to help out. He’s managed to break 5x his salary in 4 of his last 5. He’s going to be on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of ownership but I suggest having a bit of exposure if you’re building a bunch of lineups.

Will Barton | SG | DK: $3.6k | FD: $4.2k - He’s getting 30+ minutes now as he’s found a way to give the Nuggets a decent boost in the scoring column. Someone needed to replace Afflalo and take up his responsibilities. Barton is doing that quite well and at a very low price.

Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to come say hi over on Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_. While you’re over there take a look at the SportingCharts Official Twitter as well. Come back tomorrow as I have analysis for you every single day. Cheers!

FanDuel is hosting their $250,000 Sunday NBA Slam tournament where the winner takes home $20,000! Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel! Use the following projections to build a winning lineup!

 



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