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NBA Daily Value and Projection Guide - January 23, 2015


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Hey everyone, I hope you all found some level of success last night. I know most of the Spurs were disappointments but the Jazz-Bucks game was far more entertaining than expected.

I’m not feeling the best tonight so I’ll be doing a rapid fire analysis for each game. I’m going to load up on some meds so I can come back in tomorrow and answer all of your questions. I’ll also make an effort to expand on a few important plays. There’s a possibility that I may release an afternoon edition if I wake up and realize how terrible all of this really is.

So without further ado!

Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers

There will likely be a few scratches from the Raptors tonight so stay on your toes!

Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

  • LeBron James will get his. Not my favorite $10k+ choice on the night but he did drop 65 FP (DK) in their last meeting.
  • Kevin Love has a good matchup and his back troubles have seemed to disappear for the time being. Proceed with caution.
  • I’m fading Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving. They try to one up the other and end up missing more shots than they attempt. Yeah, that’s possible.
  • Big Al Jefferson’s price is too step. Fade.
  • Tristan Thompson’s minutes have dropped significantly. Fade.
  • I’m also likely fading Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Lance Stephenson. Too much variance for them to be cash plays and the ceilings aren’t high enough to merit a GPP play. If Kemba were out this would be different.
  • Timofey Mozgov is a lock for most of my lineups.
  • J.R. Smith has…*shivers*…become a surprisingly good cash game option. He’s fitting in quite well in Cleveland. Gerald Henderson is a decent option as well.
  • I’m not entirely sure what to make of Bismack Biyombo’s situation. I’m leaning towards fade as he doesn’t size up too well with Mozgov. Big Al is going to take more and more minutes from his as well.

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

This will probably be an ugly game.

  • Dwyane Wade is a fade. His price just ain’t nice.
  • Chris Bosh could be a decent GPP play but I’m seeing a lot of value at C so I’m fading.
  • David West is a go for cash games.
  • Hassan Whiteside worries me, even if he returns. It’s a good matchup but I’m likely fading until he has another good game.
  • Mario Chalmers and Shabazz Napier are considerable punts at PG as the Pacers are terrible against them.
  • I’m fading everyone else as of right now.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks

Defense vs. offense, which will prevail? I’m guessing defense.

  • Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant seem to have gotten their groove back. I don’t think I’ll be playing them tonight though. The Hawks are allowing the fewest PPG in the NBA and there are better $10k+ options out there.
  • Jeff Teague’s minutes have dropped slightly and that concerns me. Millsap still isn’t hitting value, so I’m fading both.
  • Al Horford and Kyle Korver are good to go. Horford for cash and Korver for GPP.
  • Serge Ibaka has a good matchup, GPP only.
  • DeMarre Carroll and Dion Waiters are traps that I refuse to fall into.
  • Thabo Sefolosha is a boring, boring punt. 

Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks

  • Yep, I’m definitely thinking about playing Carmelo Anthony. Very surprised that he was given 40 minutes against Philly, but let’s hope it happens again!
  • Nikola Vucevic likes to toy with my emotions. He’s a tough one to predict but I think he has a solid night. Could easily hit 5X value.
  • Victor Oladipo’s stock is dropping with Tobias Harris back in the mix. You still have to consider him though, especially against the Knicks.
  • Elfrid Payton is a must play.

 

Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Anthony Davis should dominate, but he’s too expensive for me.
  • Tyreke Evans’ price is too high for cash games after a couple of good outings without AD in the lineup. Eric Gordon is the only Pelican I’m considering. You can deploy Evans, however, in a GPP as he has a great matchup. Gordon is good for anything.
  • Andrew Wiggins makes for a good GPP play.
  • I don’t trust Mo after a couple of dud performances and a bad matchup.
  • Robbie Hummel is one of my favorite (near) minimum priced punts.
  • If Kevin Martin plays, I might actually start him. It would be a good matchup and he has fresh legs.
  • Nikola Pekovic vs. Omer Asik is one battle I want to avoid. 

Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

  • A lot of us got popped last night. Not cool!
  • Still liking Kawhi Leonard a lot in this one. As long as he gets the minutes he’ll hit value.
  • Manu Ginobli is a good play as Kobe Bryant is likely out with a torn rotator cuff.
  • Tim Duncan isn’t a bad idea but you’re flirting with fire here. I’m not sure that’s the proper metaphor or what have you, but it makes sense right now. I’m not trusting him but he isn’t a bad play for GPP.
  • Jordan Hill has been playing really well and deserves a look for your cash game roster.
  • You may consider Danny Green and Wayne Ellington but I don’t feel comfortable taking either of them tonight.

Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

  • Ty Lawson has strung together a couple of rough games now. That probably scares a lot of people off but not me. I don’t think he’s the best option at PG tonight but he should return to his usual 35+ FP outing.
  • Kenneth Faried is questionable with a flu related illness. This worries me quite a bit. He already struggles to stay on the court so how many minutes can we expect now? I’m staying away from him but if you have the kahunas to play him in a GPP, it could pay off.
  • Jared Sullinger would be a great play if Faried is OUT. I’m a bit worried about his minutes though. The game is in Denver and he’s coming off of a physical game with Portland. That being said I have him projected to score 30 FP.
  • Arron Afflalo’s game vs. Golden State was an anomaly. He’s one of the best SGs in DFS when it comes to value. Avery Bradley will guard him close, but he should be able to shake him loose.
  • Jusuf Nurkic and…get this…Javale McGee are both questionable. There are a lot of scenarios that can play out here. If both play I’ll likely be fading him. Nurkic doesn’t see enough minutes despite the favorable matchup and we haven’t seen McGee in almost two months. He was terrible even then. If Nurkic is out, I like J.J. Hickson a lot.
  • Evan Turner is one of my favorite plays on the board. He gets it done in a ton of ways and he’ll draw a good matchup. He seems like the guy that would benefit from a fast paced contest.

 

  • Avery Bradley draws a good matchup. GPP play for sure, iffy for cash games. I still like Marcus Smart despite a disappointment last night against Portland.
  • Kelly Olynyk is the perfect GPP play particularly if Nurkic is out. Tyler Zeller deserves a look as well. Boston is just full of value.
  • Not a huge fan of anyone else but Wilson Chandler sees enough minutes to make a decent contribution. Good matchup but not a lot of usage.

Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

  • James Harden and Eric Bledsoe are both locks for me. Well, maybe not both of them in the same lineup, but you definitely need one of them. These are both guys that play with a chip on their shoulder and they tend to slack off on the defensive end. If you can afford him, take Harden.
  • Dwight Howard was embarrassed by Andrew Bogut. Alex Len has similar length and blocking ability. With plenty of value at C I’m likely fading D12 although he’s found a way to hit value lately.
  • Goran Dragic came back to Earth againstly Portland. I don’t like him all that well tonight with Patrick Beverley guarding him. There are worse choices for cash games but he’s definitely not a play for tournaments.
  • The battle between Markieff Morris and Donatas Motiejunas should be fun to watch. My money is on DMo, but that’s only because he’s cheaper. I’m not spending up for Kieff.
  • I usually advocate taking a severe punt at the SF position but there aren’t many tantalizing options down there tonight. That makes Trevor Ariza worth a look. He shouldn’t have much trouble with P.J. Tucker. Speaking of him, Tucker is also worth a look. I’m definitely taking one (or both) of these guys.
  • Isaiah Thomas has been on fire. I expect him to cool off a bit tonight but he won’t have to worry about P. Bev. All that much coming off of the bench. Deploy him in GPPs, caution in cash games. I still like Beverley by the way. He’s a decent punt for cash games but I think you can find better.
  • I will never roster Josh Smith. Alex Len is seeing fewer minutes with Brandon Wright in town. It’s definitely a cause for concern but he’s still starting and his price makes him worth a look.
  • Gerald Green is a solid cash play. Corey Brewer is a great GPP play.  

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

This is going to be a tough one to predict. The Warriors won’t have any trouble dissecting the Kings defense. There’s definitely a lot of value in this game but I think most of it lies in the cheaper options.

  • DeMarcus Cousins will have his hands full in this one. He’s going to see more minutes than he did in the last couple of meetings as the Kings don’t really have an adequate replacement for him. If you somehow find yourself with enough cash to take him, be sure to do so.
  • Stephen Curry is one of the guys I’m immediately fading. He just isn’t logging the minutes necessary to remain a reliable option, especially at his price. Great matchup, but a lot of Warriors are playing well right now.
  • One of those guys is Klay Thompson who I like very much tonight. His price is beginning to rise as he’s sitting in the midst of a hot streak. Shouldn’t have an issue with McLemore. I assume Klay will be guarding McLemore, so I’m fading Ben. If he guard Darren Collison I’ll likely fade him instead.
  • Rudy Gay has dropped a few 20+ point performances in a row. He’ll need that to continue if he wants the Kings to make it through the first half. I don’t see any reason why he can’t do that. Barnes may trouble him a bit with his length but it’s not a severe mismatch by any means.
  • Draymond Green is still too expensive for my liking.
  • David Lee is one of my favorite plays at PF. Bogut isn’t going to get 5 blocks again so I’m fading him for more valuable options.
  • I’m not really considering anyone else.

I will do my best to revisit all of this tomorrow! In the meantime why don’t you guys and gals go on over to my Twitter, @Steven_Royalty_ and bombard me with your questions so I have something to do when I wake up.

I appreciate the support and good luck tonight! TGIF!

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