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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - January 26, 2015


I, like a few of you, went overboard and stacked a few too many from the LAC-PHO contest last night. It turned out fine as I ended with a 200% ROI, but it could have been much better. A lesson learned – Don’t trust P.J. Tucker. It was a fun game to watch nonetheless.

We have a lot of teams playing the back end of two games in two nights. With that we typically see some guys sit out and rest. So be sure to check Twitter and RotoWorld prior to tip-off. I don’t expect any of these games to be close so this will be risk tonight in nearly every game. If you don’t feel comfortable with any lineup just take the night off and prepare for Tuesday. You really want to avoid going on tilt if that’s something you’re leaning towards.

Now let’s see what we can make of these games. Just in case you missed yesterday’s edition the pricing next to each player is (DraftKings | FanDuel).

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Portland Trail Blazers @ Brooklyn Nets (Editors note: game has been postponed due to weather.)

Take

Avoid

Consider

I’ll probably stick to cash games tonight and Matthews will be in almost all of my lineups. I doubt Batum plays as the Nets have struggled to keep games close lately. So Matthews should get some extra looks and he gets a nice matchup. His high floor is what I like most.

Joe Johnson’s name has popped up in some trade rumors for Lance Stephenson. This in addition to the news about tendinitis in his knee is enough to scare me away.

I’m not so sure that LMA will see a full allotment of minutes. As I said before, Portland can likely compete without a couple of guys. He would be a GPP play only but seeing that his salary rose back to normal price, I’d recommend looking elsewhere. Lillard draws a good matchup and would benefit nicely if in fact LMA saw fewer minutes on the floor.

Jarret Jack’s usage would be through the roof in this one if Deron Williams was ruled out. He gets a good matchup and the game being at home should give him the slightest boost of confidence. However, if D Will is active I’m probably fading him. 

Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks (Editors note: game has been postponed due to weather.)

Take

Avoid

Consider


Neither of these teams play defense and neither of them are very good at holding on to the ball. There are injuries on both sides, more so with the Knicks, so a lot of things can change here. The plain and simple analysis is this. If Melo plays you downgrade Thomas. If Calderon is active you downgrade Galloway. That doesn’t mean you fade them, but you temper your expectations.

You need to find a way to fit DeMarcus Cousins into just about every one of your lineups tonight. He is going to feast on this Knicks squad. Absolutely nobody will be able to control him. The game is in NY, so it should stay relatively close, especially if Melo plays and I think he does.

Melo and Gay are my favorites at SF. Yes, even over Durant. The OKC-MIN game won’t be close so I doubt he hits value given his salary. Anyways, Melo is likely to play around 40 minutes if he’s active. With that much playing time he’s got a great chance to hit 5X his salary and then some. Rudy has had plenty of rest since his ejection from the GS game. He is a great choice for cash games and just as good for GPP.

Collison I like a lot for cash. He’s guaranteed 35 minutes which means he’ll hit right around 5X his salary against this Knicks defense. I’m not so sure that my lineups won’t have all three Sacramento studs. Galloway lost a bit of his luster after barely hitting 5X against Charlotte. Still, he’s the best PG punt on the night. Aldrich won’t get a lot of playing time and he can’t handle Cousins. No way I’m taking him.

Hardaway had a great game without Melo on the court to hog all of the shots. He still deserves a look against the Kings defense but his value drops considerably if Melo plays. McLemore isn’t a bad cash play. Thomas and Smith also lose value if Carmelo is active but you could make an argument for starting either of them. If I see your lineup tomorrow night and it has 4-6 guys from this game in it, I probably won’t argue with it.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Take

Avoid

  • Nobody, really. I don’t like many guys in this one but I’m not writing anyone off either.

Consider


Westbrook is the only high priced stud I feel comfortable rostering out of this game. His usage and versatility index rank highly enough to give him a solid floor with considerable upside. Basically, he can rebound, score, pass and create turnovers. For that reason he is more valuable in a potential blowout than someone who relies on scoring.

Before I continue I’d like to address my concerns with taking any T-Wolf. Every starter but Dieng logged over 35 minutes. Thad and Wiggins ended with over 40 themselves. Now they travel from ATL to OKC and that worries me. I think Dieng is fine, but Williams, Thad and Pekovic in particular may see reduced minutes.

I like Dieng because with Pekovic starting he gets to slide down to PF. That gives him a nice matchup with Ibaka in this one. Thad will have the duty of guarding Durant, at least initially, but he can still get it done offensively. Limited upside however. Not a huge fan of Mo in this one but the matchup, on paper, looks promising and he was competitive last night @ATL. He’s fighting hard to keep his starting job.

Budinger is my favorite punt on the night. Hummel broke his hand tonight, so Chase could potentially get 25-30 minutes in this one.

Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies

Take

Avoid

Consider


Gasol is going to destroy the Magic. Vucevic doesn’t match up well against him and he should have no trouble getting the job done. Very similar story with Randolph. They’ll both log enough minutes to hit at least 4X their salary with 6X upside. Both are cheap enough you can pair them together. If you’re not taking DeMarcus Cousins, you’re taking Marc Gasol.

So don’t take Voochy. He’ll struggle to hit 4X against Gasol and company.

A lot of people will be scared to start Conley. I think he makes for a perfect GPP play. All reports lead us to believe that he’ll return to his normal amount of minutes. His price has dropped considerably since his injury and he’s met with a fantastic matchup tonight. I’m planting him into a few lineups.

Oladipo gets an ugly matchup as the Grizzlies have been rolling with Tony Allen at the SG position. His price is a bit high as well so I’m avoiding him, but he’s poised to be Orlando’s leading scorer tonight. Jeff Green only has cash game value but I’m likely looking elsewhere.

Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans

Take

Avoid

Consider


Tyreke struggled in his last meeting with the 76ers. Jrue and AD both were out and he crumbled under the pressure. I doubt we see that happen again. He’s still very fairly priced and should make a good play for any format.

I don’t like MCW with AD on the court. Larry Drew has been stealing some of his minutes and he gets a lot of his looks on drives through the paint. AD can send those back no problem. You can still play him in a GPP or two but I’m not. Covington will be matched with AD as Noel usually takes the starting C position. I don’t like that for obvious reasons.

Davis, next to Cousins, has the lowest floor of any player on the board. In a game like this we can probably pencil him in for 45+ FP. That being said I don’t see the same upside. It’s probably the best matchup we could hope for but I’m not so sure this one stays close. I look for guys like Ajinca and Pondexter to see additional minutes.

Gordon is a good cash play. Noel is risky but he has the range to pull Asik away from the rim. Proceed with caution. I like Asik but, as I just said, Noel has developed a mid-range game that can pull him away from the basket, thus limiting his potential for a double double. 

Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz

Take

Avoid

Consider


Hayward should have little trouble scoring in this one. He also rebounds well and gets a few assists, so his floor is fairly high. Doesn’t make a terrible cash play but I’d prefer him in a GPP. Favors gets a good matchup and he’s likely guaranteed 30+ minutes which is a great recipe for a cash play.

Gobert matches up well against the Celtics. He doesn’t suffer as much as Kanter might from Favors being on the floor as he rebounds and defends better. As pointed out to be by another DFS fan, Gobert usually closes out games for the Jazz. This game should stay close enough for us to see him earn a few extra minutes. Bass is getting 30+ minutes lately and his price makes that a great value.

Burke, unless he starts, has very, very little value.

Sully’s playing time could drop a bit in this one after a late game with GS last night. I would love to slide him into a cash game or two but I think he’s GPP only. Kanter is definitely a tournament only play. He’s far too volatile to trust in a cash game. Turner isn’t a pretty play by any means but he’ll likely get 4.5-5.5X his salary. Exum worries me as a lot of his points come from 3 pt shots, but as long he starts you can shoe him into a few lineups – cash or GPP. 

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

Take

Avoid

Consider


CP3 is going to net you at least 40 FP, that’s just a guarantee. Against Lawson and company he has the potential to drop a 50 burger which would put him over 5X his salary. Take him if you can. Jordan gets a fantastic matchup as Denver lacks true size and strength inside. Nurkic and Faried are prone to foul trouble and struggle to stay on the court for 5+ minutes at a time.

Redick and Afflalo have been shooting quite well lately and neither does a great job of defending. I’d rather have Redick here but you could argue for either. They’re aren’t in a similar price range so I’ll take the cheaper guy.

Don’t like the matchups for Lawson, Faried or Nurkic. Lawson actually played quite well last night against the Wizards but I don’t expect a repeat. He logged about 40 minutes so I don’t think he’ll have the same legs under him.

Griffin gets a good matchup but he’s been hitting under value lately. Not a terrible cash play but I’m probably fading him for options with more upside. I know how that sounds. Chandler and Hawes are slightly risky options with a light price tag but both provide 6X+ potential. 

That’s it for tonight’s slate! I realize it’s a Monday so many of us return to the 9-5 grind. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Steven_Royalty_ for updates! Come on over and ask your DFS related questions or just chat with me to get through the worst day of the week. Then go out and win some serious cash tonight.

Note: FanDuel is hosting a one-day $225,000 tournament where the winner takes home $25,000. Entry fee is just $25! Join FanDuel!

 



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