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NBA Daily Fantasy Value and Projection Guide - January 27, 2015


Yesterday was a crazy day to play DFS. With a couple of games being postponed we were very limited in our player pool. I was locking DeMarcus Cousins into almost every lineup and that plan was immediately foiled. Kevin Durant was ruled out about half an hour before tip-off, Michael Carter-Williams was also out with an illness. I know that messed with a lot of people’s lineups. Guys like Westbrook, Conley and Mo were all huge disappointments. Even Larry Drew struggled to do anything in place of MCW. All in all it was a very hit or miss night.

We look to return to some level of normalcy tonight. There are 6 games on tonight’s slate, most of which should be quite entertaining! The early lines on each game show a lot of promise. So let’s all take a deep breath and get back to it.

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Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers

Take

Avoid

  • Roy Hibbert is the only name I want to put here. However, he offers something for tournaments – low ownership. It’s a good matchup and he actually plays okay in those. I’m not touching him with a ten foot pole in any format, but I can’t tell you to do the same.

Consider

My gut told me to start Valanciunas against the weak Detroit interior this past Sunday. I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t listen to my gut and for that I am very sorry. I feel a similar instinct about this matchup. Hibbert refuses to play defense. Mahinimi is getting a bit more of a run lately, but he’s still coming off of the bench. I’ll be giving Jonas a strong look for all of my lineups.

Watson is still getting plenty of minutes despite George Hill’s return to the lineup. His production could be credited to the absence of C.J. Miles in their past couple of contests. If Miles is active for this game, I’m downgrading Watson. If not he gets a great matchup and should hit around 5X his salary, especially on FanDuel.

Lou Williams is a fantastic cash play. This has been known for a while now. His price is more desirable on DraftKings. Mahinmi gets a good matchup with this Toronto frontcourt. His minutes have been somewhat sporadic but we can lock him in for 20 with potential for 30. Giving the blistering pace that Toronto likes to play with, there’s plenty of upside for him here.

David West doesn’t get a great matchup here with Amir Johnson defending him. Usually I would look to West for my cash games but his floor doesn’t really coincide with his salary anymore.

Hill should continue to see a minutes restriction for the remainder of January. That being said, this is a great matchup for him. Lowry struggles to defend opposing guards. Even with Hill likely seeing fewer than 25 minutes, he can hit 1.5 FP/min against this defense. That would make him worthwhile in both cash games and tournaments, but I’d definitely prefer him in the latter.

I’m not a huge fan of Vasquez here but I had to mention him. He’s averaging 27 minutes off of the bench in his last 5 games and he’s scored double digits in 2 straight. What concerns me is that Hill will come off of the bench and guard him. Hill is much better defensively than C.J. Watson. His upside is limited here and I’d only entertain him in a tournament.

Patrick Patterson’s value diminishes greatly if Amir Johnson is healthy. There are some valid concerns about a few injuries he’s been dealing with. Keep an eye on the injury report. If he’s out OR restricted, fire up PPatt.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

Take

Avoid

Consider

James has been able hit over 5X his salary in three consecutive games despite averaging only 34 minutes between them. His usage % is phenomenal and it’s only a matter of time before he records a DD or TD. Very possible in this game where he’ll likely be guarded by Kyle Singler or KCP.

Greg Monroe is probably a lock for cash games. His floor/upside combo is extremely desirable, especially given the matchup. He’ll be tasked with scoring more often now that Jennings is out. Drummond has looked lost as of late, I think Moose is the guy to take here.

Augustin gave us one of the best value plays we’ve seen all season on Sunday. He dropped a career-high 35 points in a very impressive performance. He will need to continue to pick up the offensive slack for the Pistons. His price has risen considerably, and I doubt he scores 35 again, but his minutes and usage are very promising. I see no reason why he won’t hit 5X his salary.

Mozgov didn’t pull a great matchup against the Thunder. For that reason, I’m sure plenty of people will look away from him tonight. Drummond is a very poor defender and has lacked tenacity on the boards lately. I believe Timo will see around 30 minutes in this one, giving him a solid floor for cash games and plenty of upside as well.

Love seems to disappear at times. He doesn’t log many assists or defensive stats, he’s mostly reliant on points and boards. For that reason I avoid him in cash games but he does have a great matchup here. A very nice option for tournament lineups.

J.R. Smith will likely begin to see fewer minutes with the return of Iman Shumpert. That being said, it will be a slow and gradual decline. He gets a nice matchup in this one so I’m giving him a look, particularly on DK. His price on FD seems a bit unreasonable for our expectations.

KCP logged 42 minutes against the Raptors Sunday. He isn’t the best of shooters, so I would possibly avoid him on sites that penalize missed FGs, but he will get all of the time in the world to stuff the stat sheet. He is still very cheap and a good bet to hit 5X. 

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Take

Avoid

  • All other Miami players. Milwaukee is actually pretty stingy defensively, especially on the perimeter. D-Wade is the only guy I would consider, but his price is far too high. This will be a slow, meticulous affair not prided in scoring.

Consider

Hassan Whiteside’s 2K rating went through the roof after his TD on Sunday. I can’t say my eyes have ever witnessed a 12-block performance. With peripherals like that, his upside is tremendous. You just can’t fade him at his price.

Deng has managed to hit 5X+ his salary in 4 of his last 5 contests. Milwaukee, however good they may be defensively, struggle at the SF position. For this reason I am consider Deng in both cash games and tournaments, more so the latter. He’s going to see around 32 minutes which is a good sign. There’s little reason to believe he’ll flop tonight.

Zaza and O.J., despite unfavorable matchups, are great cash plays tonight. They see consistent minutes and score points in a number of ways. Neither happen to be too flashy, but you can rely on them to hit 5X salary.

Giannis doesn’t get a great matchup but his price, especially on DK, is low enough that you can roster him. I’m probably looking elsewhere as his upside seems to have diminished. Middleton concerns me a bit here as he likes to play a lot of PF, where Miami is the best defensively. However he continues to average 30 minutes a game. Not a huge fan but I wouldn’t waive him off completely.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks

Take

Avoid

Consider

ZBo has been playing phenomenally as of late. His price hasn’t fully adjusted yet so we can continue to rely on him for right at 5X his salary.

Ellis is a great tournament play. I may even consider him for cash games if Courtney Lee draws the start again. If Tony Allen starts, however, he’s downgraded a bit and I’ll probably look elsewhere.

Dirk has been a great choice for cash games lately. He’s in a very similar position as David West was about a month ago. I like him more on DK.

A lot of people will be fading Parsons. I understand that it was rough what he did, but trust me when I say it was nothing more than an anomaly. He will return to his normal self in this game against Jeff Green. Don’t worry, folks. You don’t want to develop a bias based on recent performance.

Udrih will likely see more minutes than usual with Conley still nursing his ankles. I’m personally fading Conley until I see him (or a valid report) log 30+ minutes again. Chandler gets a terrible matchup here against Gasol. I understand that he pulled down 16 boards in their last meeting, but I am finding too much value at C to take a chance here.

If you can get past Rondo’s ugly game log you can find some potential value. I’m not touching him in cash games, but you can definitely consider him for tournaments. As long as Conley is seeing limited time on the court you can deploy the opposing PG and feel good about it.

Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors

Take

Avoid

Consider

  • Everyone else. I’ll explain below.

Pau is the only guy I trust in this game to his 5X his salary. He’s done so in 5 of his last 6 games. There’s a very good possibility that I’ll be pairing him with ZBo, Monroe or tripling up and taking all three.

Klay doesn’t get a great matchup with Butler defending him but as long as he’s shooting the way he is, you can’t just ignore him. I don’t think he has 50 FP in him for this one but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 40-45.

Bogut gets a fantastic matchup and his price, especially on DK, is low enough that he’ll get 5X.

I’m so, so surprised that Noah’s price hasn’t depreciated more. He’s barely hitting 3X when he plays and that’s ridiculous.

I’m not big on Stephen Curry in this one. He’s only hit 5X his salary in 2 of his last 10 games. He’s getting abnormally low minutes for a star PG. I’m probably looking elsewhere.

Draymond Green is an interesting prospect. He had a career game in his last meeting with Chicago, dishing out 60 FP. Chicago doesn’t really have anyone locked into the SF position, so Green could get some additional usage in this one. His price is still a bit high for cash game material, but you can roster him in your tournaments for sure.

I’m not sure what to make of Derrick Rose. He just doesn’t have the same burst that he used to. That’s understandable, but it’s disappointing for DFS purposes. Surprisingly enough he doesn’t make a bad cash play. His floor is high enough that he’ll likely bottom out around 4X. The Warriors are pretty good defensively so his upside is limited, but this is still D Rose we’re talking about.

You can possibly look at Andre Iguodola for a punt at SF.

Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers

Take

Avoid

  • Nearly every Laker. If I don’t list or discuss them, I’m avoiding them entirely. I don’t want much to do with this squad, especially not against the Washington defense.

Consider

We know that the Lakers are absolutely abysmal against opposing PGs. John Wall is already hitting right under 5X his salary, so this matchup will give him the boost he needs to hop over that ledge. He has 60 FP upside.

Nene will have no qualms with the Laker big men. He’s been a fantastic cash game play this season and that is certainly true for tonight. You could even toss him into a GPP or two.

Paul Pierce has been surprisingly good lately. He’s averaging 33 minutes in the past 3 contests and 32 FP to go with it. My only concern is that he is rested in this game, whether it’s announced or not. I should also mention I have a similar concern for Hilario, but less so. Just be cautious.

Ellington is the prime beneficiary of Kobe’s injury. He’s been rather consistent 3 games in a row now logging 10+ points in each contest. However, he draws a stingy defender in Bradley Beal. I’m likely avoiding him but he still makes a decent punt.

As for other Wizards you could make an argument for any of them. I do like Beal but mainly for tournament plays. Gortat could fit into your lineups but I think there are better plays at C. Humphries could get some additional minutes and, with this great of a matchup, may be one of the best punts on the night.

That concludes this summary of tonight’s slate. If you have any comments or questions you can follow me on Twitter @Steven_Royalty_. As always, good luck out there tonight and come back tomorrow! I roll these things out like hot cakes.

UPDATES


Luol Deng is DOUBTFUL for this contest tonight. It doesn't have a huge impact aside from downgrading him alone. Danny Granger could see a bump in minutes but I feel like there are far better options at SF tonight.

Chris Andersen will reportedly be a game-time decision. This makes Hassan Whiteside a lock for just about any cash lineup. If he misses, Chris Bosh would get a better look in GPPs but I am still avoiding him in cash with guys like ZBo, Dirk and Monroe.

C.J. Miles is OUT again, bumping C.J. Watson slightly. If you're looking for a low owned PG with upside he could be your man.

Jimmy Butler is QUESTIONABLE for tonight's game against the Warriors. If he misses, you can distribute his value to the rest of the Bulls' starting lineup. I think most of his production lands on Rose's shoulders, making him worth a look. Aaron Brooks could also see a few additional minutes. If you weren't already starting Klay Thompson, certainly consider it if Butler isn't there to guard him. 

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