NFL Divisional Round Playoff picks using the Golden Rules

Wagering against the spread (ATS) on NFL games often leads to tough decisions and requires you to research all the intangibles. My weekly "Golden Rules"  examines historical ATS betting trends relevant to specific games. Consider these Golden Rules to be the tie-breakers, the game-changers and the intangible factors you are looking for.

WHICH HEAD COACH SHOULD YOU TAKE WITH THE SPREAD IN THE DIVISIONAL ROUND – BILL BELICHICK OR ANDY REID?

Saturday January 16, 2015 – Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-4.5)

A decade ago, Bill Belichick and Andy Reid were dominating their respective conferences. Belichick’s troops set claim to three Lombardi Trophies in a four season span and Reid’s Eagles reached four consecutive NFC Championships, eventually winning the fourth before falling at the hands of Belichick’s Patriots in the Super Bowl. In fact, Super Bowl XXXIX is the only time these respected sideline generals have met in the postseason. New England won the game 24-21, but, more importantly, Philadelphia snuck in a back door cover with a post-two-minute warning touchdown reception by Greg Lewis.

We all know that Belichick has had an unprecedented string of success coaching playoff football. He has led New England to four titles and two other Super Sunday appearances. But how does his ATS performance match up with someone like Reid, who has won his fair share of big games, just not the biggest of all quite yet. Saturday’s matchup will be Belichick’s 12^th divisional round playoff game compared to Reid’s eight. Is there something we can take away from the past about how each man’s squad will perform this week against the spread?

The chart below compares Belichick and Reid’s ATS winning percentage in divisional playoff games. Note that pushes are not considered a win for purposes of determining winning percentage.

Under Belichick, the Patriots are 9-2 straight up in the divisional round, losing only to the Broncos a decade ago and to their rival, the New York Jets, back in January 2011. However, whether it’s been underperformance or being overrated, New England has not lived up to the spread while under Belichick’s control. The 5-5-1 ATS mark for Belichick’s Patriots pales in comparison to the 5-2 divisional round ATS record for Reid while coaching the Eagles from 1999 through 2012.

This week, we cannot discount the fact that New England is coming off a week’s rest while the Chiefs took to the road to face the Texans. After all, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman could take advantage of an opportunity to heal wounds; whereas, there is no respite for Jeremy Maclin and his knee, and not to mention the other banged up Chiefs. But, when analyzing past performance, the bye week didn’t make any difference. Belichick and the Patriots are 4-4-1 against the spread in divisional playoff games after taking the Wild Card weekend off. On the other hand, while with Philadelphia, Andy Reid led the Eagles to a 3-1 ATS record in the divisional round when limited to a week’s rest.

Golden Rules say to take Kansas City

CAN AARON RODGERS AND THE GREEN BAY PACKERS HAVE SUCCESS AGAINST THE SPREAD AWAY FROM LAMBEAU?

Saturday January 16, 2015 – Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.0)

Who could forget the last time these teams met up in the playoffs. Six seasons have passed since the Packers overcame a 31-10 3^rd quarter deficit by scoring 35 2^nd half points on the Cardinals. Of course, the 45 points and five touchdowns recorded by Aaron Rodgers was only enough to equal the 45 points accumulated by Arizona and the five touchdown day from Kurt Warner. To Green Bay’s dismay, the overtime ended in a flash as Karlos Dansby trotted a Michael Adams opening drive strip of Rodgers into the end zone.

The Packers were 2.5-point road favorites that January afternoon and failed to cover their spread. Was the 2010 shootout with Arizona a rare occurrence for Green Bay? Or was this one ATS result a microcosm of a symptomatic problem that Rodgers and the Packers have had when travelling in the playoffs? To begin my analysis, I have summarized the seven road playoff games started by Rodgers (excluding the Super Bowl where everyone’s on a road trip) in the following table:

Including last week’s convincing victory over Washington, Green Bay is 5-2 against the spread on the road with Rodgers at the helm. Other than the loss to Arizona, the only other time Rodgers failed to cover on the road was during Colin Kaepernick’s coming out party at Candlestick three seasons ago. The Packers have been able to find success against the spread even when most of the lines are quite tight. All but one game opened with a spread under four points.

Another way to examine the ATS playoff performance of Rodgers and the Packers is with the chart shown below. In this visual, I have compared the Packers straight-up margin of victory in each road playoff game, since Rodgers took over from Brett Favre, with the spread-adjusted margin of victory. The green bars represent the straight-up margin and the yellow dots reflect the spread-adjusted margin. Anything above the zero-line indicates that Green Bay either won straight-up or against the spread depending on whether the indicator is a bar or dot.

The results displayed above show that the means by which he Packers have beaten the spread on the road is quite variable. Rodgers has not only relied on high-scoring affairs but has also been able to cover in tight battles like last season’s wild finish versus the Seahawks in the NFC Championship. With this week’s line set at a touchdown, Rodgers’ ability to cover in these close games bodes well for the Packers staying close enough to cover against the Cardinals.

Golden Rules say to take Green Bay

HOW DO TEAMS TRAVELING THREE TIMES ZONE EAST PERFORM AGAINST THE SPREAD IN THE PLAYOFFS?

Sunday January 17, 2015 – Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-1.0)

A win is a win, so Seattle isn’t complaining one iota about the chilly temperatures last Sunday in Minneapolis. But the Seahawks would much rather be hosting a team in the often inclement Pacific Northwest than taking on Cam Newton’s 15-1 Carolina Panthers in Charlotte. Over the past decade, the Panthers have traveled twice across country to Seattle to face the 12^th Man in the playoffs. And, both times, the Panthers left town with a loss of at least two touchdowns.

This Sunday, the tables are turned. How will the Seahawks like jumping on a plane and becoming accustomed to a three-hour time difference? In franchise history, Seattle has taken the field in a playoff game three time zones East on six occasions but has only won twice: New Year’s Eve 1983 versus the Dolphins and 29 years later against Robert Griffin III in Washington. Against the spread, the Seahawks have been marginally better with a 3-3 record.

In order to assess Seattle’s likelihood over beating the spread this week versus Carolina, I have studied the playoff outcomes, up to and including the playoffs that followed the 1995 season, to determine if there are any helpful historical trends with respect to Pacific Time Zone clubs traveling three zones toward the Atlantic. The chart below depicts the results of the 13 games under this scenario.

Using a similar chart to my analysis for Green Bay, I compared the straight-up and ATS margins of victory for all the visiting teams who travel three time zones East. Over this time period, the road teams might be 6-7 straight-up, but they have a solid 8-4-1 mark against the spread.

San Francisco’s 31-6 meltdown to Jon Gruden and the eventual Super Bowl champ Buccaneers following the 2002 season was the only decisive ATS loss by the traveling team. Aside from the Tampa Bay/San Francisco matchup, the average spread-adjusted margin is 3.5 points. Likewise, the average spread-adjusted margin for the eight covers was 11.8 points indicating the travelling team has shown more upside potential than downside risk.

Golden Rules say to take Seattle

HOW HAS PEYTON MANNING PERFORMED AGAINST THE SPREAD IN THE DIVISIONAL ROUND THROUGHOUT HIS CAREER?

Sunday January 17, 2015 – Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7.0)

When did all the criticism of Peyton Manning begin? It was even earlier than his first playoff failure versus the Titans in January 2000. It dates back to the University of Tennessee’s inability to fulfill expectations in key SEC matchups in the late 1990’s. And the persona of the big game flop continues to dog the most prolific quarterback in NFL history even after he led the Indianapolis Colts to a Lombardi Trophy. Critics hastily remind us that Tom Brady has won four and Manning’s younger brother has won two.

Entering this week’s matchup versus the banged up Steelers, Peyton Manning is 11-13 in the playoffs. Of course, he’s 7-13 ignoring the one season culminating in a championship. In comparison, Tom Brady is 21-8 and Eli Manning is 8-3. We all know that Peyton is 1-2 in Super Bowls. But did you recall that he is 3-1 in conference title games? However, this week, the question remains how Peyton Manning has performed in the divisional round – both straight-up and against the spread.

The table below summarizes all ten of Peyton’s appearances in the divisional round. Three games followed wild card wins in which Manning and the Colts took to the road for their divisional playoff game. The other seven followed an opening round bye.

Manning has led his team to victory in only four of the ten contests – three with the Colts and then two seasons with the Broncos. His ATS record is a dismal 3-7 and I have highlighted above the only three games in which the Colts either won outright as underdogs (versus Kansas City in 2004 and Baltimore in 2007) or covered as a favorite (2010 against the Ravens).

Peyton Manning’s ATS performance is even worse at home after a first round bye. In seven home games in the divisional round, Manning-led teams are 1-6 against the spread. In fact, he has failed to cover in all five games in which his team was favored by a touchdown or more.

Golden Rules say to take Pittsburgh

Bob Sullivan writes periodically for SportingCharts.com and can be followed on Twitter at @mrbobsullivan.

The Golden Rules were 1-3 during the Wild Card Weekend

You can access last week’s 2015 Weekly Golden Rules Analysis below.

- NFC Wild Card Playoffs picks using the Golden Rules
- AFC Wild Card Playoffs picks using the Golden Rules

NOTES:

Historical data on NFL spreads was accessed via Sunshine Forecast, whose latest source was scoresandodds.com, or accessed from scoresandodds.com directly. Spreads were collected by Sunshine Forecast as close as practicable to game time.