While Matt Hasselbeck wasn’t expected to play such a potential pivotal role in the Colts’ season this year, he is part of a larger trend this season in which quarterbacks are on average significantly older than those in recent years.
On the one hand this makes sense – with league mainstays such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and others still taking the field (most weeks) for their teams, it makes sense that the average age will shoot up a bit. On the other hand, with the top two picks in this year’s draft also taking the field each week, one might expect the average age to come down a bit.
However, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are proving to be more the exceptions than the rule. With five weeks to go in the regular season, quarterbacks are on average a year and a half older than they were just three years ago, and fewer younger quarterbacks than ever before are taking the field. Using data from the Pro Football Reference Play Index and looking at all quarterbacks who have made at least one pass attempt in a game, the jump in age the last few years becomes quite apparent:
|
Year |
Count |
Avg. Age |
|
2010 |
589 |
28.9 |
|
2011 |
582 |
28.2 |
|
2012 |
578 |
28.1 |
|
2013 |
572 |
28.6 |
|
2014 |
580 |
29.3 |
|
2015 |
380 |
29.7 |
The average age of quarterbacks this season of course will change over the next few weeks, but it can both go up as current quarterbacks continue to play (and get older) or go down if younger backups get a look late in the season due to injury or a lost season (or both).
Additionally, it is the extreme ages that are driving this shift the most. Through the first 11 weeks, quarterbacks making at least one pass attempt who are under the age of 26 account for less than 19% of all quarterback appearances, down significantly from 2012 when a whopping 42% of quarterbacks were under the age of 26 (think Robert Griffin, Blaine Gabbert, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, among others).
Similarly, the number of “old” quarterbacks has more than doubled over that same time span, meaning the shift is due to more than just the “young” quarterbacks of 2012 getting older. In 2012 quarterbacks 34 or older made up just 7% all appearances, and has nearly tripled to almost 20% so far in 2015 (the aforementioned Matt Hasselbeck, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady all contributing to this but also Drew Brees, Josh McCown, Tony Romo, and Michael Vick, among others all playing a role):
Breakdown of NFL Quarterbacks by Age, 2010-2015
|
Year |
<26 |
26-29 |
30-33 |
34+ |
|
2010 |
27.5% |
39.4% |
19.4% |
13.8% |
|
2011 |
30.4% |
39.9% |
20.4% |
9.3% |
|
2012 |
42.2% |
26.0% |
24.6% |
7.3% |
|
2013 |
41.8% |
20.1% |
27.6% |
10.5% |
|
2014 |
28.3% |
28.1% |
26.9% |
16.7% |
|
2015 |
18.7% |
35.0% |
26.6% |
19.7% |
Is there anything to make of this other than seeing some numbers move around? For the time being, not necessarily, though eventually the “old men” of the league will be forced to retire (most will likely try to hang on a bit too long), and eventually the league will need to expect an overall decline in quality quarterback play as the youngsters brought in to replace the legends will be weeded out. But before we start to complain that Tom Brady’s replacement will never be as good as Tom Brady (he nearly certainly won’t be), we should sit back and enjoy watching the veterans play out their careers.