The Super Bowl is the single most important event in terms of betting, with millions of dollars changing hands in the matter of a few hours. And with all eyes fixed on the final game of the season, placing bets only on the final score can only be a small part of the fun. While prop bets are available in any other game of the season, they reach center stage on Super Sunday, when almost every type of exotic prop is made available.
While it can certainly be fun to bet on things like the coin toss, some kind of announcers mention, the halftime show, or the color of the winning teams Gatorade, these bets are designed to make us guessers instead of knowledgeable bettors. On the other hand, there are many other props that can take out the best of our researching acumen and apply it to the final game.
With the Carolina Panthers settling in as a comfortable favorite and Denver Broncos trying to give Peyton Manning a memorable send-off, there will be another time to pick the game against the spread. For now, here are 5 prop bets that can become profitable and provide value. Also, theyll make you focus on the game instead of all the other little annoyances of your Super Bowl party.
Game Winning Margin
Carolina by 1-6 (+275), Carolina by 7-12 (+400)
As it stands today, the point spread is found either as Carolina by 5.5 or 6 points, depending on the book you prefer. This means that the Panthers are comfortably expected to win the game, with Super Bowl favorites usually doing a good job of at least meeting expectations and winning. So while that could make a compelling case to simply taking the Carolina money line at -220, there can be a better chance to profit by taking a chance on the margin of victory coming between 1 and 12 points, with the risk being divided between two bets.
To further support this claim, we can look at how the Denver have fared in losses under Peyton Manning. Since Manning took over in 2012, the Broncos have lost only 17 games including playoffs and games started by Brock Osweiler. Only six of those losses have come by double digits, and only three of them have come by 13 or more points. While one of those losses was the infamous 43-8 beatdown the Broncos took on Super Bowl XLVIII, that game was an extreme scenario and with a Denver team that wasnt close to having the defense it has today.
So while trying to figure out if the Panthers cover the spread or not may be hard, this bet can hedge those doubts and give out good odds.
Will either team score 3 unanswered times?
Youd be surprised at how many times this happens on any given NFL game, which is why the “Yes” is a big favorite. After all, it only takes a team going on a hot run to score at least three times with no response from the opponent. Just last season, the Seahawks scored three unanswered times before the Patriots could react, with Seattle doing most of the scoring in their victory over Denver the previous year.
In fact, only in 3 of the previous 10 Super Bowls have seen no team score at least 3 unanswered times. However, if we are to take a chance on this bet, Super Bowl 50 seems like the perfect time to do it. With the leagues 4th and 6th-best scoring defenses on display, it shall be hard for either team to simply laying down while the other scores at will. I expect a back-and-forth, low-scoring affair, which is the blueprint Denver has taken to improbably reach this point.
Will C.J. Anderson score a touchdown?
Andersons history of overachieving as an undrafted free agent is one of the most touching and inspirational stories of Super Bowl 50. Now as he reaches the biggest stage of his career, he is in charge of helping out Peyton Manning in carrying a big burden through rushing yardage that can ease the passing attack.
Carolina was in the middle of the table in terms of rushing yards allowed, but they have been stingy in allowing touchdowns from running backs. They only allowed 8 of them during the regular season, and an extra one in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Anderson only found the end zone 5 times in 2015, with an additional touchdown in the postseason. He has never been a productive back through the air, with only two career receiving touchdowns and none since 2014.
While the Broncos should be able to put up a few points, Anderson will probably be left out of the scoring.
How many penalties will be called in the game?
Over 12.5 (-115)
Under 12.5 (-115)
This prop may be one of the most unexciting aspects of the Super Bowl, but it still represents an opportunity to provide some value. The NFL has chosen Clete Blakeman as the referee for Super Bowl 50, which will be his first huge assignment following only six years as referee and 4 previous playoff games. While Blakeman may be the right choice based on his average number of penalties per game (14), and home winning percentage (58%), the number set for this over/under may be a bit high.
During the regular season, the Broncos and Panthers combined to average a combined 14.5 accepted penalties per game, but that number has been reduced to about 11 penalties per game during the playoffs. It is widely accepted that officials tend to be more lenient during the postseason, as nobody wants to become the decider of the years biggest games. Also, having no home-field advantage reduces the number of common line penalties, such as false starts and offsides.
While Peyton Mannings hard counts and Cam Newtons potential for excessive celebrations could present a risk, this game will be decided by the players instead of the officials. Go with the under, as Ill be surprised if the total even reaches double digits.
Which team will score the longest touchdown?
While most bets need to go through an extensive period of research and consideration, some others just need a bit of the old eye test to make a decision. This one falls on the latter category, with the Panthers owning the explosive offense and the Broncos becoming much more methodical in their offensive approach. To wit, the Panthers had 8 players with at least one play of 40+ yards, while the Broncos only featured 5 such players.
Also, the Panthers were the leagues highest-scoring team, so they should get their chances to score, even against the Broncos tough defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos were an average offensive team, with Peyton Manning no longer having the deep ball as part of his arsenal. This prop is almost a no-brainer.