Week 8 NFL picks using the Golden Rules 2015

Laying down a few bucks in Vegas on the Week 8 lines? Or, maybe, it’s you and 49 other colleagues at the firm all staring curiously at the spreads wondering how to get a leg up in the office pool. Regardless of the reason, the Golden Rules are for you.

During the 2014 NFL season, I provided weekly insights for those betting NFL games against the spread (ATS). It’s what I like to call The Golden Rules. And I’m back for the 2015 regular season hoping to build on my 39-25 (61%) regular season record from a year ago.

There is no guarantee you can pick the winner by analyzing historical data from the past five, ten or 20 NFL seasons. But can you gain a competitive advantage? Sure you can. The Golden Rules are about asking the right questions, identifying differentiating factors and having faith that you are increasing the likelihood of success.

HOW DO FORMER STARTING SUPER BOWL WINNING QUARTERBACKS PERFORM AGAINST THE SPREAD WHEN FACING EACH OTHER?

Sunday November 1, 2015 – New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Sunday November 1, 2015 – Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

This week, two different games featured head-to-head battles between former starting Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Eli Manning and Drew Brees square off in New Orleans and Peyton Manning and the Broncos host Aaron Rodgers in a battle of unbeaten teams on Sunday night. Since 2005, there have been 59 such matchups. Some are Sunday night classics between Tom Brady’s Patriots and Peyton Manning’s Colts or Broncos. And some featured exiled pivots whose defenses carried them to titles. Does anyone remember Brad Johnson’s Vikings doubling Trent Dilfer’s Browns in 2005?

The analysis is not as simple as asking how former Super Bowl winning quarterbacks perform against the spread. Instead, I examined the trends under various standard scenarios. But I was concerned that the results of the scenarios would cancel each other out. Would one team stand out? I decided to focus on the following:

• Favorites
• Home teams
• Least time elapsed since last Super Bowl
• Highest in-season straight-up (S/U) winning percentage
• Highest in-season ATS winning percentage

For example, Brees led the Saints to victory following the 2009 season; whereas, Eli took the Giants all the way two years later. Therefore, Eli has the least time elapsed since winning it all. Both New Orleans and New York have similar straight-up and ATS winning percentages over the first seven weeks of the 2015 season. The Giants are 4-3 straight-up and against the spread. The Saints match the Giants ATS mark, but are a game back at 3-4 straight-up.

The graph below shows ATS winning percentages since 2005 for each scenario. Note that the results under the in-season winning percentage scenarios only reflect games played after Week 4 of each season since the in-season records aren’t statistically significant until teams have played a certain amount of games during the season.

Favorites such as the Saints and Packers have a narrow upper hand over the underdogs, but the ATS results for home teams is more impressive. Once again, this Sunday’s game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome provides Brees the upper hand in a matchup of Super Bowl winners. But the edge Rodgers held as a favorite is countered by Peyton’s home field advantage.

The time that has elapsed since each quarterback’s previous Super Bowl championship turned out to be a non-factor since the results were approximately 50/50. However, the in-season straight-up and ATS trends are significant. You would think that the former Super Bowl winning quarterback with the better in-season performance would deliver when facing another Lombardi-hoisting pivot, but that is not the case. In both scenarios, the team with the lower in-season winning percentage has beaten the spread more often when two former Super Bowl winning quarterbacks meet up.

I have summarized the results of my analysis for each game in the tables below.

In the matchup between Eli Manning and Drew Brees, the Saints maintain an edge in three of the five scenarios – New Orleans is the favorite, they are playing at home and they have a lower in-season straight-up record. The other two scenarios are a draw.

I have provided a similar table below for the Packers/Broncos tilt.

There is a much less obvious choice in the Sunday-nighter. As previously mentioned, the Packers and Broncos trade advantages since the Packers are road favorites. All other scenarios are even except that the Broncos have a lower ATS winning percentage this season as a result of a push two weeks ago against the Browns. That’s too small of a difference to sway my vote.

Golden Rules say to take New Orleans and abstain from Green Bay/Denver

HOW DO TEAMS PERFORM AGAINST THE SPREAD IN LONDON?

Sunday November 1, 2015 – Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

It’s been 46 seasons and counting without a championship for the faithful Kansas City Chiefs fans that exuberantly pack Arrowhead eight Sundays a year. It’s a good thing the Royals are in the driver’s seat of the World Series. A title has been a long time coming for Western Missouri. But not as long as the Detroit Lions fans have suffered. The loyal supporters of the silver and Hawaiian blue have waited 58 years since Tobin Rote led the Lions to the NFL Championship.

In recent memory, both teams cyclically raise expectations only to falter and then lower expectations the following season only to renew hope. The 2015 season has been one that both teams consider a step back. The Chiefs were 20-12 over the past two seasons and the Lions were hoping to improve on their 11-5 2014 mark which saw them reach the playoffs. But 2015 has not been kind. Kansas City has looked good but has a mere 2-5 record to show for it. The Lions are 1-6 and they needed nearly an entire overtime period to defeat Chicago in Week 6. So how will these franchises do when they meet this week in London?

There have been 13 regular season games in London since 2007 and seven over the past three seasons. I have listed all 13 games below.

Each London game is its own animal. You have the time zone adjustments, the additional media scrutiny and the lack of a home field advantage. Who do you think would prevail and win big enough to cover the spread? With the travel, the media commitments and the complete disruption to schedules, should you lean towards the team with the most recent success and consistency or the team most discouraged and distracted?

I have summarized the results from the table above so you can visualize the pattern that takes shape in the historical results. In the chart below, the maroon bars symbolize a straight-up victory. The favorite won if the bar is raised above zero; if the bar drops, it was an upset. Also, the size of the bar is in relation to the margin of victory. The yellow dots indicate the margin of victory net of the spread. If the dot is above the “zero” line, the favorite covered; similarly, the underdog beat the spread if the dot is under. The further the dot is above or below zero means the further the ATS result was from being a push.

My first observation was the number of times that the favorite triumphed straight-up and against the spread. Favorites have won 10 of the 13 games played in London and only failed to cover on five occasions. But the picture tells more than the absolute results. When viewing the results in a bar chart like this, you can see the magnitude of the wins. So many of the victories by the favorites were by a significant margin. Likewise, when the underdogs were victorious, it wasn’t by much. Therefore, the favorite is not only likely to cover the spread more often, but chances are good they will go above and beyond.

Golden Rules say to take Kansas City

DOES ANY ONE COACH HAVE MORE SUCCESS THAN THE OTHERS IN THE WEEK PRECEDING A BYE WEEK?

Sunday November 1, 2015 – Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Heading into a bye week, the concern of every coach is whether their team can continue to compete without any consideration of the bye or whether there will be a loss of focus as teams look ahead towards some well-deserved rest. Some coaches have proven to be better than others at keeping their team focused on the goal. Pete Carroll is one. Last season, a week before their bye, Seattle hosted Denver in a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII. The Seahawks held off a late Broncos surge for a six-point overtime win that also happened to cover the four-point spread.

The victory over Denver lifted Carroll to 8-1 straight-up and against the spread over his career heading into a bye. Usually coaches have better records following a bye, but the coach who has strolled the sideline on the past two Super Sundays is merely 4-5 straight-up (and 3-6 against the spread) following a bye.

This week, Pete Carroll is among several head coaches leading their teams prior to Week 9 byes. But none of these coaches have near the track record as Carroll. The chart below compares the straight-up and ATS winning percentages in games immediately preceding a bye week for all 18 current head coaches with a minimum of five pre-bye week games.

Some coaches like Carolina’s Ron Rivera have poor straight-up results preceding a bye week, but keep the games close enough to cover. Others, like Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy struggle to keep his team focused heading into the bye. Under the McCarthy era, the Packers are barely able to manage an above-.500 straight-up winning percentage and their ATS winning percentage is 0.333.

Yet it is Carroll that stands alone. You could ask just how Carroll does it. How does he manage to elevate his team’s performance when they are likely the most desperate for a break? But the better question might be how did he lose his one pre-bye week game? During his first season in the Pacific Northwest, Carroll’s Seahawks were road favorites but were stomped 20-3 by St. Louis in Week 4 as they headed into a bye. That didn’t sit well with Pete. The teams met again for the final game of the regular season with a playoff berth on the line. Seattle rebounded that night to finish the 2010 season 7-9 and capture a sub-.500 NFC West division crown.

Golden Rules say to take Seattle

Bob Sullivan writes periodically for SportingCharts.com and can be followed on Twitter at @mrbobsullivan.

The Golden Rules were 2-1 during Week 7 and are 14-18 for 2015

You can access last week’s 2015 Weekly Golden Rules Analysis below.

- Week 7 NFL Picks Using the Golden Rules

NOTES:

Historical data on NFL spreads was accessed via Sunshine Forecast, whose latest source was scoresandodds.com, or accessed from scoresandodds.com directly. Spreads were collected by Sunshine Forecast as close as practicable to game time.