Who would be picked at first overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft came down to a single question - Taylor or Tyler?
Both players considered dynamic offensive talents - Taylor Hall seen as the high-flying scoring winger and Tyler Seguin the rare right-handed playmaking center - the Edmonton Oilers couldn't go wrong with its pick.
As we all know, the Oiler stepped up to the podium and took Hall while Seguin fell into the hands of the Boston Bruins.
With the amount of focus that was placed on these two players, their career will inevitably be tied to one another.
We decided to take a look at how these two players have performed over the first three seasons of their career.
Looking at their career statistics we see that Taylor edges out Tyler in most statistical categories even though he has played fewer games than Seguin due to injuries in his first two seasons (high ankle, cut and shoulder).
Over their three seasons the players have generated the following statistics:
The one area that Seguin has edged out Hall is in plus-minus, which may point to better defensive play but is likely due to the difference in their teams.
In an almost perfect test case, Hall went to the Oilers who have been among the worst performing teams in the league while the Bruins have been a top team and even won the Stanley Cup in Seguin's rookie year.
And while Seguin is getting significant winning experience and is already a Stanley Cup Champion, Hall is benefiting from playing for the Oilers in the way of ice time as illustrated by his 3 minutes more of play time per game vs. Seguin.
Overall, from the numbers above, Hall so far is the more productive of the players, statistically, even when one equalizes for ice time.
But how have they progressed over their seasons.
When looking at how their careers have trended, we see some very similar things and one very interesting divergence.
In terms of points per game:
In their rookie year, Taylor was far ahead of Tyler in terms of points per game (0.65 PPG vs. 0.30 PPG) but that is where the difference ends. Both players made a big jump statistically in their second seasons jumping up to above 0.80 PPG with Hall just slightly ahead. So far in the 2012-13 season, Hall has taken another step to nearly 1 PPG while Sequin has leveled.
However, one trend that has started to appear is the way in which they are producing from a goals and assists standpoint. One would imagine, that Seguin as the playmaking center would dominate Hall when it comes to assists, however, as illustrated:
In the first two seasons, both players had a fairly even split in points (goals vs. assists), however, the '12-13 season has seen a drastic shift for Hall where only a quarter of this points are coming from goals. So is Hall a playmaker now vs. a goal scorer? It's probably far too early to make this claim but it'll be interesting to watch this stat to see if it reverts back to historical levels.
So now that we are into these players third season, would the draft be different?
TAYLOR VS. TYLER REVISTED
If the Oilers were to step up to the podium again and had a choice between Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin, would they make a different decision?
Doubtful. Based on his performance, Hall is progressing as the better player of the two as he is producing at a higher level all while taking on a leading role on a struggling team. One can only imagine what Hall will be able to produce when the overall fortunes of the Oilers improve.
What would you do? Would you have switched picks? Let us know in the comments!