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PECOTA Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

What is PECOTA Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm?

PECTOA is algorithm and sabermetric system used to forecast Major League Baseball players performance. Developed by Nate Silver for Baseball Prospectus in 2002, it has been used ever since by Baseball Prospectus as a way to project fantasy production. Recently, PECTOA has begun to make projections for advanced sabermetric statistics and therefore, PECTOA has been widely used to make predictions on individuals as it relates to team performance rather than just individual fantasy player performance.

 

 

Sporting Charts explains PECOTA - Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

PECTOA has been developed through the years to acutally forecast several summary diagnostics such as breakout rates, improve rates, and attrition rates, as well as potential market values of the players. 

Due Baseball Prospectus owning the terms and all the formulas associated with PECTOA, none of the actuall alogrithims and formulas have ever been released to the general public. 

PECTOA has been known to have siginificant error due to projecting based on past performance. For example, in 2013, PECTOA projects that Angels first basemen Albert Pujols will have the stats to make him an MVP candidate. 

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