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Pythagorean Luck

What is Pythagorean Luck?

When a team's actual record exceeds their "Pythagorean expected record," that team is considered to have Pythagorean luck. If a team's actual record is below their ""Pythagorean expected record," they are considered to be Pythagorean unlucky.

Pythagorean expected record is quailified by taking the amount of runs scored by a team to the 1.86 power and dividing that by runs scored to the 1.86 power plus runs allowed to the 1.86 power.

Or this equation:

win% = (runs scored ^ 1.86) / (runs scored ^ 1.86 + runs allowed ^ 1.86)

 

 

Sporting Charts explains Pythagorean Luck

Since 1963, only 10 teams have exceeded their Pythagorean expected record by 10 wins or more. These teams are considered to have extreme Pythagorean luck.

In 2012, the Baltimore Orioles excedeed their Pythagorean expected record by 11 wins, going 93-71, but with an expected record of 82-80. 

The most a team has exceeded their Pythagorean expected record is by 12 wins, which has happened three times; 2008 Los Angeles Angels, 2004 New York Yankees, and the 1984 New York Mets.

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